Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.84; (P) 105.15; (R1) 105.71; More…

USD/JPY’s recovery from 104.62 extends higher today. But it’s limited well below 106.63 resistance so far. Intraday bias remains neutral with outlook bearish. Another decline is expected and break of 104.62 will resume larger fall fro 104.20 projection level first. Sustained break there will pave the way to 98.97 (2016 low). Nonetheless, break of 106.63 will indicate short term bottom and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.34; (P) 106.62; (R1) 106.82; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside as fall from 111.71 is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58 next. At this point, downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD is still unconvincing. The structure of the fall from 111.71 doesn’t warrant that it’s an impulsive move resuming larger down trend. Reactions from 104.58 could finally reveal whether fall from 111.71 is corrective. On the upside, break of 107.49 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 109.38 resistance.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

USD/JPY dropped to as low as 104.27 last week and the development argues that down trend from 111.71 might be resuming. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 104.18 support first. Break will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 109.85 to 104.18 from 106.94 at 103.43 next. On the upside, above 104.87 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first, for some consolidations, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.16; (P) 136.63; (R1) 137.23; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral again with current retreat. On the downside, break of 135.24 support will indicate rejection by 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 133.92) first. On the upside, however, sustained break of 136.64 will indicate that fall from 151.93 has completed, and bring further rally to 61.8% retracement at 142.48.

In the bigger picture, focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64. Sustained break there will indicate that price actions from 151.93 medium term are merely a corrective pattern. Such development will maintain long term bullishness. Rejection by 136.64 will, on the other hand, extend the fall from 151.93 to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 at a later stage.

USD/JPY’s rise from 104.45 resumed by breaching 108.47 last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 109.31 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications next target will be 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. On the downside, below 107.77 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture,strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is not confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

USD/JPY’s strong break of 116.34 resistance confirms resumption of whole up trend from 102.58. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Next target is 118.65 long term resistance. On the downside, below 116.73 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 125.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 113.46 support holds.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.98; (P) 106.31; (R1) 106.94; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral first. With 105.31 minor support intact, further rise is mildly in favor. Above 107.00 will target 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. Hence, we’ll look at the reaction from 108.48 (which is close to 108.12 too) to assess the chance. On the downside, below 105.31 minor support will indicate that the rebound is completed and turn bias back to the downside for 104.62 and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.37; (P) 121.90; (R1) 122.63; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside at this point. Current up trend should target 161.8% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 126.09, which is close to 125.85 long term resistance. On the downside, below 122.13 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) in in progress for retesting 125.85 (2015 high). Sustained break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. This will now remain the favored case as long as 116.34 resistance turned support holds.

USD/JPY’s rally from 140.25 resumed by breaking through 148.79 last week. Initial bias remains on the upside for retesting 151.89/93 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of larger up trend. For now, downside, outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 145.88 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as a correction to the rally from 127.20, which might have completed at 140.25 already. Firm break of 151.89/93 resistance zone will confirm up trend resumption, and next target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.50. This will now remain the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

In the long term picture, as long as 125.85 resistance turned support holds (2015 high), up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in favor to continue through 151.93 (2022 high) at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.02; (P) 136.62; (R1) 137.53; More…

USD/JPY’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside for 139.37 high. Strong resistance could be seen from 139.37 high to bring another fall from to extend the corrective pattern from there. On the downside below 134.61 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 139.37 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 123.21) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

USD/JPY rebounded to 110.26 last week but reversed since then. Such rebound from 108.10 is likely completed. Initial bias is mildly on the downside for 108.10 support or below. Nonetheless, price actions from 111.39 are seen as a corrective pattern. We’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 110.26 resistance will resume the rebound to 111.39 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.40; (P) 110.58; (R1) 110.73; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 11.10 is still extending. Further rally is still expected with 109.70 support intact. Larger up trend from 102.58 might be resuming. Above 111.10 will target 111.71 key resistance next. Firm break there will carry larger implication. Next target is 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 110.95 from 107.47 at 112.64 next. On the downside, however, break of 109.70 support will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.63; (P) 131.23; (R1) 132.12; More…

USD/JPY spiked through 130.33 minor support but quickly recovered. For now, deeper fall is in favor as long as 131.88 minor resistance holds. Corrective rebound from 127.20 could have completed with three waves up to 132.89. Retest of 127.20 would be seen next and decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 151.93. On the upside, above 131.88 will likely resume the rebound through 132.89 to 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64.

In the bigger picture, prior of 55 week EMA (now at 131.39) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong rebound from current level, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 will argue that price actions from 151.93 is merely a corrective pattern. However, rejection by 136.64 will solidify medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.19; (P) 104.46; (R1) 104.89; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and further fall is expected with 105.05 resistance intact. On the downside, firm break of 104.00 will resume larger decline from 111.71, towards 101.18 key support. However, firm break of 105.05 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 106.10 resistance.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.70; (P) 131.27; (R1) 131.91; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. On the downside, break of 129.62 support will resume the whole decline from 137.90 to retest 127.20 low. On the upside, however, above 133.74 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for another rise. Overall, eventual downside break out is expected as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 127.20 might be extending. But after all, down trend from 151.93 is expected to resume at a later stage. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.20; (P) 150.82; (R1) 151.34; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is in favor as long as 149.17 support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 151.93 resistance will confirm resumption of long term up trend. Next target will be 157.69 projection level. However, firm break of 149.17 will be a sign of bearish reversal and bring deeper fall to 147.28 support first.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is now on 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will argue that rise from 127.20 has completed, and turn outlook bearish for 137.22 support and below. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2021 low) to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.69; (P) 109.83; (R1) 109.92; More..

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation form 110.01 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise remains in favor as long 108.30 support holds. On the upside, above 110.01 will target 110.28 first. Break will resume larger rebound from 104.45 and target medium term falling channel resistance at 111.19.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish outlook yet in spite of the rebound from 104.45. The pair is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and the down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.24; (P) 149.53; (R1) 150.11; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in range below 150.15 despite current recovery, and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, firm break of 150.15 will resume larger up trend to test 151.93 high. On the downside, below 148.24 minor support will turn bias to the downside for another down leg through 147.28.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.48; (P) 113.92; (R1) 114.79; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias remains on the downside for 112.71 support. Sustained break there will argue that fall from 115.51 is already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper decline would then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 115.51 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.37; (P) 109.91; (R1) 110.21; More..

USD/JPY’s decline accelerates to as low as 108.84 so far and intraday bias stays on the downside for 108.30 support. Decisive break there will indicate completion of whole rise from 104.45 and turn outlook bearish. next downside target will be 107.65 support. On the upside, above 109.89 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will now remain on the downside as long as 112.22 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, current steep decline and rejection b y 112.40 resistance mixes up the medium term outlook again. Sustained break of 108.30 support will argue that larger fall fro m118.65 (Dec 2016) hasn’t completed. Further fall could be seen through 104.45 low. nevertheless, break of 112.40 resistance will revive the case of bullish reversal and target 114.54 key resistance for confirmation.