Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.97; (P) 112.29; (R1) 112.61; More…

Outlook in USD/JPY remains mixed with neutral intraday bias. On the upside, above 113.08 will extend the rebound from 110.83 to retest 114.73 key resistance. Decisive break there will extend the rally from 107.31 to retest 118.65 high. On the downside, break of 110.83 will resume the decline from 114.73 instead. But in that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 110.14.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed a 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this will and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.67; (P) 112.29; (R1) 112.79; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 112.91 temporary top. Near term outlook stays cautiously bullish as long as 110.94 support holds. Sustained break of the near term channel resistance argue that whole pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12 already. In such case, further rise should be seen to 114.36 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 110.94 will argue that rebound from 108.81 has completed and will turn bias back to the downside for this support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.29; (P) 107.43; (R1) 107.68; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 104.45 is still in progress. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 109.31 key resistance next. We’d continue to look for topping sign as it approaches this 109.31 resistance. On the downside, break of 106.62 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 104.45 low instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 109.31 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.55; (P) 107.02; (R1) 107.64; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 108.04 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. Also, fall from 111.71 is merely a correction that has completed at 106.35. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 109.38 resistance first. On the downside, though, break of 106.35 will target 100% projection projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58 instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.82; (P) 104.74; (R1) 105.38; More..

USD/JPY recovered after hitting 103.07 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Break of 103.07 will bring retest of 101.18. Break will resume larger down trend to 98.97 support next. On the upside, break of 105.91 will extend the corrective rise to 61.8% retracement of 112.22 to 101.18 at 108.00 instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress. It’s seen as part of a larger consolidative pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). Such decline could could extend through 98.97 (2016 low). For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 112.22 resistance holds, even in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.21; (P) 112.03; (R1) 112.54; More…

USD/JPY drops to as low as 111.13 so far today and is pressing 111.12/13 cluster support. Such support level represents 61.8% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 111.12 and 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. At this point, we’d still anticipate strong support around 111.12/13 to contain downside and bring rebound. Break of 112.86 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 115.49 resistance first. However, sustained break of 111.12/13 will bring deeper decline to 100% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 108.42.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Nonetheless, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.19) will extend the consolidation from 125.85 with another fall through 98.97 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.44; (P) 107.50; (R1) 107.57; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 108.16 temporary top. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 106.79 support holds. Break of 108.16 will resume the rebound form 106.07 to 109.85 resistance next. Break will argue that larger rebound from 101.18 might be resuming to 112.22 key resistance. On the downside, below 106.79 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn bias back to the downside for 106.07 instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.26; (P) 142.07; (R1) 142.59; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays mildly on the downside for the moment. Fall from 143.88 could be the third leg of the pattern from 145.06. Deeper fall would be seen to 55 D EMA (now at 140.50). On the upside, though, above 143.88 will resume the rise from 137.22 to retest 145.06 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.80; (P) 113.03; (R1) 113.41; More..

USD/JPY recovered to 113.24 but was rejected by 4 hour 55 EMA and drops sharply. As it’s staying above 112.57 temporary low, intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 112.57 will target 112.30 first. Break there will extend the fall from 114.20 to 111.37 support and below. On the upside, above 113.24 will turn bias to the upside for 114.03 first. Overall, price actions from 114.54 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Hence, even in case of deep decline, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound. Larger rise from 104.62 is expected to resume later.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.59; (P) 106.78; (R1) 106.87; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral as it retreated after hitting channel resistance. Some consolidations could be seen and deeper pull back cannot be ruled out. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 104.91 support holds. Break of 106.95 will resume the rally from 102.58 to 61.8% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 108.22.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.90) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.02).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.55; (P) 108.92; (R1) 109.16; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook remains unchanged. On the upside, break of 109.70 will retain near term bullishness and turn bias to the upside for 111.71/112.22 resistance zone. On the downside, decisive break of 106.75 support should confirm completion of rebound from 101.18, after failing 112.22 key resistance. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 101.18 low.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.31; (P) 107.03; (R1) 107.48; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 105.54 is extending. Outlook remains bearish with 108.27 resistance intact and deeper fall is expected. Break of 105.54 will extend the larger fall from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. However, break of 107.72 will be the first sign of near term reversal and will target 110.47 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.36; (P) 107.73; (R1) 107.92; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 107.45 minor support will suggest completion of rebound from 104.45. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 106.68 support for confirmation. On the upside, in case of another rally, we’d expect strong resistance below 109.31 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.15; (P) 112.35; (R1) 112.49; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as consolidation from 112.79 temporary top is in progress. Deeper retreat could be seen. But downside should be contained well above 111.13 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. Current development affirms the case of medium term reversal. Above 112.79 will target 61.8% projection of 104.62 to 111.39 from 109.36 at 113.54 first. Break will put focus on 114.73 key resistance for confirming our bullish view.

In the bigger picture, current development, with the solid break of medium term channel resistance from 118.65 (2016 high), affirm our view that corrective fall from there has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 119.36 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.23; (P) 111.42; (R1) 111.68; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 111.06 temporary low. Near term outlook remains bearish as long as 112.71 resistance holds and deeper decline is expected. Below 111.06 will target 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 110.14. For the moment, we’re still favoring the case medium term corrective pattern from 118.65 has completed at 107.31 already. Hence, we’ll looking for bottoming below 110.14 to bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completes. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming. However, firm break of 111.64 support will dampen this view and turn focus back to 107.31 instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.79; (P) 110.99; (R1) 111.18; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as range trading continues. Another rise would remain mildly in favor with 110.41 support intact. On the upside, sustained break of 111.71 will carry larger implication. Next target is 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 110.95 from 107.47 at 112.64. However, break of 110.41 will indicate short term topping and bring pull back 55 day EMA (now at 109.74).

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.29; (P) 104.51; (R1) 104.90; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first and further decline is mildly in favor with 105.85 resistance intact. Firm break of 104.00 will resume larger decline from 111.71, towards 101.18 low. On the upside, firm break of 105.05 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 106.10 resistance.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.82; (P) 108.21; (R1) 108.90; More..

USD/JPY retreats mildly today but intraday bias stays on the upside. Rebound from 104.69 might extend higher. But upside will likely be limited by 109.46 minor resistance. On the downside, below 106.74 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 104.62 low. Overall, larger downtrend from 118.65 (2016 high) is expected to resume finally through 104.62 after current consolidation from 104.69 completes.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Fall from 114.54 is seen as part of the falling leg from 118.65 (2016 high). Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 98.97 to contain downside to bring reversal. Also, this bearish case will remain the preferred one as long as 114.54 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.33; (P) 151.55; (R1) 151.88; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 150.25 support should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 149.35). Nevertheless, sustained break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.14; (P) 148.63; (R1) 149.01; More…

USD/JPY is extending the consolidation from 150.15 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, below 147.28 will turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back. But there is no confirmation of bearish trend reversal before firm break of 144.43 support. Another rally remains mildly in favor through 150.15 to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.