Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.50; (P) 109.69; (R1) 110.02; More…

With 109.36 minor support intact, intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside for retesting 111.39. Break will resume the rebound from 104.62 and target a test on 114.73 key resistance level. However, on the downside, below 109.36 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, at this point , we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.01; (P) 142.04; (R1) 143.83; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 147.68 long term resistance. Break there will target 161.8% projection of 126.35 to 139.37 from 130.38 at 151.44 next. On the downside, below 142.67 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.62; (P) 147.01; (R1) 147.80; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as consolidation form 151.93 is still extending. Deeper fall might be seen but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 130.38 to 151.93 at 143.69 to bring rebound. Upside of rally attempt should be limited by 151.39 resistance.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is no clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 140.33 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.71; (P) 105.96; (R1) 106.20; More...

USD/JPY strengthens mildly but stays below 106.47 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral and the bullish case is still in favor. That is, corrective fall from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 104.18, after missing 100% projection of 111.71 to 105.98 from 109.85 at 104.12. On the upside, above 106.47 will target 108.16 resistance next. Nevertheless, break of 104.18 will extend the whole decline from 111.71 instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.87; (P) 130.64; (R1) 131.76; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Outlook stays bearish as long as 134.49 resistance holds. On the downside, firm break of 61.8% projection of 148.44 to 133.61 from 138.16 at 128.99 could trigger downside acceleration to 100% projection at 123.33.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top was in place at 151.93. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 131.65) would raise the chance of bearish trend reversal. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 137.54) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.03; (P) 113.50; (R1) 114.00; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside with focus on 112.71 support. Sustained break there will argue that fall from 115.51 is already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper decline would then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57. On the upside, above 113.94 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 115.51 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.84; (P) 115.13; (R1) 115.49; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in sideway trading and intraday bias remains neutral. Consolidation from 116.34 is still extending. On the upside, break of 115.68 will resume the rebound from 113.46 to retest 116.34 high first. On the downside, break of 114.14 should extend the consolidation with another falling leg through 113.46 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.21) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.25; (P) 105.35; (R1) 105.52; More...

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias remains neutral first. Another rise is still in favor with 104.94 support intact. On the upside, break of 106.10 will resume the rebound from 104.00 for 106.94 resistance. Sustained break there should confirm completion of the whole decline from 111.71. On the downside, break of 104.94 support will revive near term bearishness and target a test on 104.00 low instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.43; (P) 113.57; (R1) 113.83; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Current rally from 104.62 should target 114.73 resistance next. Decisive break there will confirm larger bullish case. Next target will be 118.65 resistance. On the downside, below 113.31 minor support will turn bias neutral first and bring consolidations, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.52; (P) 107.84; (R1) 108.19; More…

USD/JPY is losing some downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But further fall is expected as long as 108.53 minor resistance hold. Decline from 110.95 should target 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77. On the upside, though, break of 108.53 will indicate short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be back to the upside for 108.99/109.95 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 102.58 might have completed at 110.95, as the third leg of the pattern from 101.18 low. Medium term outlook is neutral first, as the pair could have turned into sideway trading between 101.18/111.71. We’d look at the structure and momentum of the fall from 110.95 to gauge the chance of upside breakout at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.88; (P) 141.35 (R1) 141.94; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation below 141.93 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. But further rally is mildly in favor. On the upside, above 141.93 will resume the rebound from 137.22 to 145.06 first. Firm break there will target 61.8% projection of 129.62 to 127.22 from 145.06 at 146.76 next. On the downside, below 139.74 minor support will bring retest of 137.22 instead.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that the second leg (the rise from 127.20) might not be over yet. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.69; (P) 114.93; (R1) 115.37; More…

USD/JPY’s rally continues today and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current up trend from 102.58 should target 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next. On the downside, below 114.81 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 113.57 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 111.65 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.05; (P) 105.24; (R1) 105.55; More..

USD/JPY is still bounded in range below 105.76 and intraday bias stays neutral first. Another rise is in favor with 104.39 support intact. On the upside, break of 105.76 will resume the rebound from 102.58 and target 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 106.06. However, firm break of 104.39 will indicate that rebound from 102.58 has completed at 105.76. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 103.31 support first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.90) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.23).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.20; (P) 147.55; (R1) 148.02; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral, as consolidation from 148.79 is extending. With 145.97 resistance turned support intact, further rally is in favor. As noted before, corrective fall from 151.89 should have completed at 140.25 already. Break of 148.79 will resume the rise from there for retesting 151.89/93 key resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, stronger than expected rebound from 140.25 dampened the original bearish review. Strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 141.89) is also a medium term bullish sign. Fall from 151.89 could be a correction to rise from 127.20 only. Decisive break of 151.89/93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. This will now be the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.05; (P) 115.37; (R1) 115.60; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 116.34 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Downside of retreat should be contained well well above 114.26 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, firm break of 61.8% projection of 109.11 to 115.51 from 112.52 at 116.47 will pave the way to 100% projection at 118.90, which is close to 118.65 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 112.52 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.23; (P) 105.52; (R1) 105.75; More...

USD/JPY’s sharp decline today suggests that corrective rise from 104.18 has completed and larger fall from 111.71 is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 104.18 first. Firm break there will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 109.85 to 104.18 from 106.94 at 103.43 next. On the downside, though, above 105.81 minor resistance will dampen this bearish view and turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

USD/JPY stayed in sideway trading last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound from 108.71 to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.79; (P) 140.30; (R1) 140.71; More…

USD/JPY’s rally is still in progress. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 100% projection of 126.35 to 139.37 from 130.38 at 143.40. Sustained break there could bring upside acceleration of 147.68 long term resistance. On the downside, below 139.05 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.62; (P) 111.77; (R1) 111.93; More…

USD/JPY’s retreat from 112.13 is in progress and intraday bias remains neutral first. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained above 110.35 support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 112.13 will resume rise from 104.69 for 114.54 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current strong rebound from 104.69 argues that decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.69, after failing 104.62. More importantly, the rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus now turns back to 114.54 resistance, decisive break there will add more credence to this bullish case and target 118.65. This will now be the favored case as long as 110.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.87; (P) 135.69; (R1) 137.33; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside as rise from 127.20 is in progress. Immediate focus is on 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64. Rejection by this fibonacci level, followed by break of 134.04 support, will argue that such rebound from 127.20 has completed, and turn bias back to the downside. However, sustained trading above 136.64 will indicate that fall from 151.93 has completed, and bring further rally to 61.8% retracement at 142.48.

In the bigger picture, focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64. Sustained break there will indicate that price actions from 151.93 medium term are merely a corrective pattern. Such development will maintain long term bullishness. Rejection by 136.64 will, on the downside, extend the fall from 151.93 to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 at a later stage.