Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.89; (P) 111.98; (R1) 112.12; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral with focus on 112.13 key resistance. On the upside, sustained break of 112.13 will resume whole rise from 104.69 for 100 % projection of 109.71 to 111.82 and 110.84 at 112.95 first. On the downside, below 111.69 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 110.84 support. Break will bring deeper fall back to 109.71 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.14; (P) 144.53; (R1) 145.06; More…

USD/JPY is extending the consolidation from 145.05 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 55 4H EMA (now at 143.67) could trigger deeper correction. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 140.90 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 145.06 will resume larger rise to 161.8% projection of 127.20 to 137.90 from 129.62 at 146.93.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is currently seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Further rally is expected as long as 138.75 support holds, to retest 151.93. But strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside. Break of 138.75 will indicate the the third leg has started back towards 127.20.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.51; (P) 148.05; (R1) 148.94; More…

USD/JPY’s recovery from 147.14 extends higher, but risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 149.68 holds. Below 147.14 will target medium term channel support at 146.00 next. Nevertheless, sustained break of 55 4H EMA will revive near term bullishness, and target a retest on 151.89/93 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 (2023 low) is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Decisive break of 145.06 resistance turned support will confirm that this second leg has completed, after rejection by 151.93. Deeper fall would be seen through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. Nevertheless strong bounce from 145.06 will retain medium term bullishness for another test on 151.93 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.98; (P) 134.20; (R1) 136.24; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral first. More consolidations could be seen below 135.58. But further rally is expected as long as 131.34 support holds. On the upside, break of 135.58 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.19; (P) 114.83; (R1) 115.28; More…

USD/JPY’s fall from 116.34 accelerated lower. But we’ll still expect strong support from 114.26 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, above 115.03 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 116.34 high. However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 114.26 will argue that USD/JPY is already in a larger scale correction. Deeper fall would then be seen to 112.52 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 112.52 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.63; (P) 114.94; (R1) 115.37; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, break of 114.49 will resume the decline from 116.33, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 116.34. Further break of 114.14 and will target 113.46 support and below. On the upside, firm break of 116.34 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.61) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.32; (P) 144.95; (R1) 145.54; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Rebound from 140.25 could extend through 146.40, but upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 151.89 to 140.25 at 147.44. On the downside, break of 143.41 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 140.25 low.

In the bigger picture, for now, fall from 151.89 is still seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.89. Another decline through 140.25 will target 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63. Sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). However, firm break of 147.44 fibonacci resistance will dampen this view and bring retest of 151.89 instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.17; (P) 145.72; (R1) 146.10; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range of 144.52/147.36 and intraday bias remains neutral. As long as 144.52 support holds, further rally remains in favor. Above 147.36 will resume the rise from 127.20 to retest 151.93 high. On the downside, however, firm break of 144.52 should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 143.04).

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.00; (P) 106.34; (R1) 106.85; More…

USD/JPY retreats notably after failing to break through 106.73 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and deeper decline is mildly in favor. On the downside, break of 104.45 will resume recent down trend to 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. However, firm break of 106.73 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.31) and above.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.02; (P) 111.60; (R1) 111.98; More….

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 112.19 temporary will turn bias back to the upside for 115.49 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm completion of the correction from 118.65. In that case, further rise should be seen to 118.65 and above to resume the rally from 98.97. On the downside, though, below 110.99 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 110.10 and break will extend the corrective fall from 118.65.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Nonetheless, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.16) will extend the consolidation from 125.85 with another fall through 98.97 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.47; (P) 109.72; (R1) 110.10; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral as it recovers after hitting 109.05. But further fall is expected as long as 110.33 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 109.05 will target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18. However, on the upside, break of 110.33 will argue that the choppy fall from 111.65 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting this high.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA would argue that the pattern from 101.18 is starting another falling leg, that could head back to 102.58 support and below. For now, outlook won’t turn bullish as long as 111.71 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

USD/JPY edged higher to 113.17 last week but subsequent sharp fall indicates short term topping. Breach of 111.39 resistance turn support argues that it’s now corrective whole rise fro 104.62. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 55 day EMA (now at 110.39). We’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109..90 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 112.04 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 113.17 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, more condition would be seen with risk of another fall.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.33; (P) 106.68; (R1) 106.93; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. We’d holding on to the bullish case. That is, corrective fall from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 104.18, after missing 100% projection of 111.71 to 105.98 from 109.85 at 104.12. On the upside, above 107.05 will target 108.16 resistance next. However, break of 105.30 support will turn bias back to the downside for 104.18 low instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

USD/JPY stayed in consolidation from 110.23 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, below 110.85 minor support will turn bias to the downside to extend the fall from 114.36 to 108.12 low. Break there will resume the whole decline from 118.65. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming signal again at 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 medium term top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.55; (P) 156.92; (R1) 157.30; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the upside with break of 156.78 resistance. Rise from 161.86, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20, should now target 100% projection of 151.86 to 156.78 from 153.59 at 158.51. On the downside, below 155.83 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 153.69 will target 151.86 and below as the third leg.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.42; (P) 113.85; (R1) 114.19; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and consolidation from 114.69 could continue. On the upside, firm break of 114.69 will resume the larger up trend to 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next. Break of 113.24 will bring deeper pull back, but downside should be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.85; (P) 109.10; (R1) 109.38; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 110.02 short could extend with another decline. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 110.02 at 107.95 to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 110.02 will resume the rise from 104.62 to 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 110.86 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Rise from 104.62 is possibly resuming the up trend from 98.97 (2016 low). This will be the preferred case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 107.95) holds. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will confirm our view and target 118.65 and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 104.62 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.12; (P) 109.58; (R1) 109.84; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 109.10 will argue that larger fall from 111.65 is resuming. Deeper decline should then be seen to 108.71 support first, and then 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next. On the upside, above 110.44 will turn bias back to the upside for 110.79, and then 111.65 high.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.91; (P) 112.20; (R1) 112.53; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point, but deeper fall is in favor. Decline from 114.54 is correcting whole rise from 104.62. Below 111.82 will target 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75. We’ll look for bottoming signal above 109.76 key support. On the upside, though, above 113.28 will indicate completion of the pull back and bring retest of 114.54 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.28; (P) 160.84; (R1) 161.35; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first and further rally is expected with 160.25 minor support intact. On the upside, break of 161.94 temporary top will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 146.47 to 160.20 from 154.53 at 163.01. Nevertheless, break of 160.25 will turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is still in progress. Further rise is expected as long as 154.53 support holds. Next target is 100% projection of 127.20 (2023 low) to 151.89 (2023 high) from 140.25 at 164.94.