Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.41; (P) 113.81; (R1) 114.24; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is now mildly on the downside, as corrective fall from 114.69 is extending lower. Downside should be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 114.69 will resume the larger up trend to 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.23; (P) 110.41; (R1) 110.73; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment and outlook is unchanged. Another rise is in favor as long as 110.00 minor support holds. Above 110.58 will resume the rebound from 109.05 to retest 111.65 high. However, on the downside, break of 110.00 will turn bias back to the downside for 109.05. Break will resume the fall from 111.65 to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. For now, outlook won’t turn bullish as long as 111.71 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.76; (P) 106.07; (R1) 106.61; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 105.54 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited below 108.72 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 105.54 will extend the larger fall from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.88; (P) 104.09; (R1) 104.27; More..

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral first. Larger decline from 111.71 is still in progress. Break of 103.65 should turn bias back to the downside for 103.17 low and below. This bearish case will remain favored as long as 105.67 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.86; (P) 107.37; (R1) 107.70; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 106.68 support now suggests that rebound from 104.45 has completed at 108.47, with a double top pattern. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for retesting 104.45 low. On the upside, above 107.29 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 108.47 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.64; (P) 104.85; (R1) 105.04; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 104.34 will will target 104.00 low first. Break will resume larger decline from 111.71. Nevertheless, sustained break of 105.03 support turned resistance will neutralize immediate near term bearishness. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 106.10 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.79; (P) 140.30; (R1) 140.71; More…

USD/JPY’s rally is still in progress. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 100% projection of 126.35 to 139.37 from 130.38 at 143.40. Sustained break there could bring upside acceleration of 147.68 long term resistance. On the downside, below 139.05 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.71; (P) 108.92; (R1) 109.12; More..

USD/JPY’s fall from 110.28 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside for 107.65 support. Break will indicate completion of whole rebound from 104.45 and turn outlook bearish. On the upside, above 109.65 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 110.28 high.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish outlook yet in spite of the rebound from 104.45. The pair is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Rise form 104.45 is seen as a correction and the down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.21; (P) 112.03; (R1) 112.54; More…

USD/JPY drops to as low as 111.13 so far today and is pressing 111.12/13 cluster support. Such support level represents 61.8% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 111.12 and 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. At this point, we’d still anticipate strong support around 111.12/13 to contain downside and bring rebound. Break of 112.86 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 115.49 resistance first. However, sustained break of 111.12/13 will bring deeper decline to 100% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 108.42.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Nonetheless, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.19) will extend the consolidation from 125.85 with another fall through 98.97 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.75; (P) 113.95; (R1) 114.18; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as it’s staying in range of 111.58/114.94. Corrective fall from 118.65 might not be completed yet. But still, in case of another fall, we’d still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, decisive break of 114.94 will indicate that it’s completed with a double bottom pattern (111.58, 111.68). In such case, intraday bias will be turned to the upside for retesting 118.65.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.39; (P) 139.85; (R1) 140.69; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in sideway trading and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 138.22 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 140.90 will resume larger rise from 127.20 to 142.48 fibonacci level. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 138.22 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 137.02).

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Stronger rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 142.48. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 151.93. On the downside, however, break of 133.73 support will argue that the pattern could have started the third leg through 127.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.79; (P) 109.11; (R1) 109.34; More….

The strong rebound and break of 110.10 resistance indicates short term bottoming at 108.12, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 111.58 support turned resistance. Sustained break there will argue that fall from 118.65 is merely a corrective move and has completed. Outlook will then be turned bullish for 115.49 resistance and above. Meanwhile, below 108.87 minor support will turn bias to the downside and extend the whole decline from 118.65 to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that it’s not completed yet and is extending. In case of deeper decline, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.71; (P) 148.04; (R1) 148.63; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Corrective fall from 150.87 could have completed at 146.47 already, after drawing support from 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 150.87 at 146.81. Further rise should be seen to retest 150.87 next. Nevertheless, on the downside, below 148.02 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that price action from 151.89 (2023 high) are correction to up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). The question is whether this correction has completed at 140.25, or extending with fall from 150.87 as the third leg. Sustained break of above mentioned 146.81 fibonacci level will favor the latter case. But even so, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 139.54.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.30; (P) 109.42; (R1) 109.57; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and consolidation from 109.72 could extend further. As long as 108.27 support holds, outlook remains bullish for further rally. On the upside, break of 109.72 will resume the rise from 104.45 for 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. However, sustained break of 108.27 support will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.20; (P) 134.05; (R1) 135.06; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Fall from 137.90 could still extend lower and break of 132.27 will target 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 137.90 at 131.28. Break of 137.90 resistance is needed to confirm resumption of the rally from 127.20, or risk will stay mildly on the downside.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 127.20 should have completed at 137.90 as a corrective move, with strong break of 55 day EMA. The down trend from 151.93 (2022 high) is not over yet. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.19; (P) 138.55; (R1) 139.44; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the downside at this point. Current decline from 151.93 should target 133.07 medium term fibonacci level next. On the upside, break of 139.88 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, further fall will remain in favor in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 131.51).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.62; (P) 108.10; (R1) 109.82; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 107.36 temporary low. Another recovery cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited below 109.89 minor resistance to bring another decline. As noted before, whole rise form 104.45 has completed after rejection by 112.40 resistance. Break of 107.36 will target a test on 104.45 low.

In the bigger picture, current steep decline and rejection by 112.40 resistance mixes up the medium term outlook again. Sustained break of 108.30 support will argue that larger fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) hasn’t completed. Further fall could be seen through 104.45 low. Nevertheless, break of 112.40 resistance will revive the case of bullish reversal and target 114.54 key resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.56; (P) 134.22; (R1) 134.94; More…

Intraday bias stays on the downside at this point. Fall from 137.73 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 137.90. Break of 133.00 will bring deeper fall towards 129.62 support. But still, as long as 129.62 holds, larger rebound from 127.20 is still in favor to resume at a later stage. On the upside, above 135.68 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 137.76.90 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 high are currently seen as a corrective pattern to the long term up trend. The first leg should have completed at 127.20. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg. Sustained break of 31.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34 will bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 142.48. Meanwhile, break of 129.62 will argue that the third leg is starting through 127.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.63; (P) 113.82; (R1) 114.16; More…

USD/JPY lost momentum ahead of 113.47 support and intraday bias is turned neutral first. As noted before, considering bearish divergence condition in in daily MACD, it’s probably already in correction to whole up trend from 102.58. Break of 113.47 will target 112.52 support first, and then 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 116.34 at 111.08. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 115.05 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 110.91) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.39; (P) 110.56; (R1) 110.82; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as it’s bounded in range of 110.27/111.13. On the downside, below 110.27 will bring deeper fall to 109.367 support. Break there will confirm that corrective pattern from 111.39 has started the third leg. And USD/JPY should target 108.10, and possibly below. In that case, we’d expect downside to be contained by 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20. On the upside, above 111.13 will bring retest of 111.39 instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.