Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.31; (P) 111.02; (R1) 111.94; More...

USD/JPY continues to edge higher with weak upside moment and outlook is unchanged. Intraday bias remains neutral and another deep retreat could be seen. But overall, further rise is expected as long as 106.75 support holds. Decisive break of 112.22 key resistance will carry larger bullish implication and target 114.54 resistance next. On the downside, break of 106.75 support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 101.18 low instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.07; (P) 106.31; (R1) 106.51; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. Intraday bias stays neutral and with 106.73 resistance indicate, further decline is still in favor. On the downside, break of 104.45 will resume recent down trend to 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. However, firm break of 106.73 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.2) and above.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 109.31 resistance is needed to the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

USD/JPY retreated after recovering to 137.84 but there was no clear downside momentum. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 137.84 resistance will revive the case of short term bottoming at 133.61, and turn bias back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 141.02). However, break of 133.61 will resume the decline form 151.93 through 133.07 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 medium term could be just a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07 and 55 week EMA (now at 131.52) will set the range for such corrective pattern. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

In the long term picture, rise from 102.58, as part of the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) was put to a halt at 151.93, just ahead of 100% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 102.58 at 152.87. There is no clear sign of long term reversal yet. Such up trend is expected to resume at a later stage, as long as 125.85 resistance turned support holds.

USD/JPY’s up rally resumed last week but retreated after hitting 150.76. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, below 149.30 minor support will turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 147.28 support holds, even in case of deep retreat. On the upside, above 150.76 will resume larger rally to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Another falling leg could be seen, but in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75. On resumption, next target would be 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.75; (P) 138.25; (R1) 139.21; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for now, despite current slight retreat. Current rise is part of the whole rally from 127.20. Next target is 100% projection of 127.20 to 137.90 from 129.62 at 140.32. Break there will target 142.48 fibonacci level. On the downside, below 137.27 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 high are currently seen as a corrective pattern to the long term up trend. The first leg should have completed at 127.20. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34 will bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 142.48. Meanwhile, break of 129.62 will argue that the third leg is starting through 127.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.59; (P) 144.79; (R1) 145.17; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside as rise from 127.20 is extending. Next target is 61.8% projection of 129.62 to 145.06 from 137.22 at 146.76. On the downside, below 144.40 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.81; (P) 110.15; (R1) 110.61; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Despite the strong rebound from 109.36, it’s staying in range below 110.89. On the upside, break of 110.89 will resume the rise from 108.10 and target 111.39. Firm break there will resume the rally from 104.62 and target 114.73 key resistance. On the downside, below 109.36 will resume the fall from 110.89. In that case, as price actions from 111.39 are seen as a corrective pattern, we’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.26; (P) 109.48; (R1) 109.81; More…

USD/JPY’s recovery from 109.15 extends higher today and further rise might be seen. But it’s seen as in consolidation pattern from 109.02. Thus, upside should be limited by 110.67 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside, break of 109.02 will resume the fall from 112.40 and target 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63 next. Nevertheless, firm break of 110.67 will argue that fall from 112.40 could be completed and turn focus back to this resistance.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Current development suggests that rebound from 104.69 is only a corrective move. And fall from 118.65 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 104.69 will extend the down trend towards 98.97 support (2016 low). For now, we’d expect strong support above there to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.20; (P) 109.53; (R1) 109.87; More…

With the current strong rebound, intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral, with focus back on 110.26 resistance. Break there will resume the rebound from 108.10 for a test on 111.39 high. On the downside, below 109.18 will bring another fall to 108.10 or below. Overall, price actions from 111.39 are viewed as a corrective pattern which might extend. But in case of deeper fall, we’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.19; (P) 114.83; (R1) 115.28; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 114.26 resistance turned support now argues that rise from 112.52 is already finished. Intraday bias is on the downside for 112.52 support. Also, considering bearish divergence condition in in daily MACD, break of 112.52 will confirm that it’s already in correction to the up trend from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 116.34 at 111.08. On the upside, above 115.03 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 116.34 high instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 112.52 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.87; (P) 107.32; (R1) 107.65; More...

USD/JPY recovers ahead of 106.91 support and intraday bias stays neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 106.91 will resume whole decline from 111.71. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 100% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58. On the upside, break of 109.38 will suggest that fall from 111.71 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 111.71/112.22 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.89; (P) 128.30; (R1) 128.79; More…

USD/JPY is extending the consolidation from 129.39 and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out but downside should be contained above 125.09 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 129.39 will resume larger up trend to 130.04 long term projection level next.

In the bigger picture, the break of 125.85 resistance (2015 high) suggests that whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is resuming. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. Sustained break there wave the way to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.93; (P) 134.25; (R1) 134.79; More…

A temporary top is formed at 134.69 in USD/JPY with current retreat. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 312.03 support holds. Above 134.69 will resume the rally from 129.62, towards 137.90 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 127.20 might be extending. But after all, down trend from 151.93 is expected to resume at a later stage. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.82; (P) 123.078; (R1) 124.14; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and further rise is still in favor with 121.17 minor support intact. On the upside, above 125.09 will target 161.8% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 126.09, which is close to 125.85 long term resistance. However, break of 121.17 will indicate short term topping, and bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) in in progress for retesting 125.85 (2015 high). Sustained break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. This will now remain the favored case as long as 116.34 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.51; (P) 133.41; (R1) 134.79; More…

Focus stays on 132.50 support in USD/JPY. Firm break there will argue that whole decline from 139.37 is resuming. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 130.38 first, and the 100% projection of 139.37 to 130.38 from 135.57 at 126.58. As such decline is seen as a corrective move, strong support should be seen from 126.35 to contain downside. On the upside, above 135.57 will resume the rebound from 130.38 to retest 139.37 high instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 139.37 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 121.84) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 126.92; (P) 127.94; (R1) 128.84; More…

USD/JPY’s correction from 131.34 is still in progress and would extend lower to 125.09 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 114.40 to 131.34 at 124.86). Strong support is expected from there to contain downside to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 129.77 minor resistance will suggest that the correction is finished and bring retest of 131.34.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.40; (P) 139.86; (R1) 140.95; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral again as it recovery after failing to break through 137.22 support. On the downside, break of 137.22 will resume the whole decline from 145.06, and carries larger bearish implications. On the upside, though, break of 141.93 will resume the rebound from 137.22 and target a test on 145.06 high.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that the second leg (the rise from 127.20) might not be over yet. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 126.56; (P) 127.07; (R1) 127.59; More…

While USD/JPY’s correction from 131.34 could extend lower, downside should be contained by 125.09 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 114.40 to 131.34 at 124.86) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 129.77 minor resistance will suggest that the correction is finished and bring retest of 131.34.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.51; (P) 108.63; (R1) 108.76; More…

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral for consolidation below 108.93. Another retreat could not be ruled out, but downside should be contained by 55 day EMA (now at 107.81). On the upside, 108.93 will target 109.31 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications next target will be 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50.

In the bigger picture,strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.04; (P) 132.67; (R1) 133.62; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first, as it recovered well ahead of 130.38 support. Overall outlook is unchanged that price actions from 139.37 are developing into a corrective pattern to larger up trend. Below 130.38 will target 100% projection of 139.37 to 130.38 from 135.57 at 126.58. But downside should be contained by 126.35 structure support. On the upside, above 135.57 will resume the rebound form 130.38 to retest 139.37, but firm break there is not expected even in this case.

In the bigger picture, fall from 139.37 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 121.84) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.