Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.27; (P) 111.56; (R1) 111.98; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point as it’s staying in range of 110.35/112.13. As long as 110.35 support holds, near term outlook remains bullish and rise from 104.69 is expected to resume. On the upside, break of 112.13 will target 114.54 resistance next. However, firm break of 110.35 should confirm near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 108.49 support and below.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 104.69 argues that decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.69, after failing 104.62. More importantly, the rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Decisive break of 114.54 resistance will add more credence to this bullish case and target 118.65. This will now be the favored case as long as 110.35 support holds. However, firm break of 110.35 will mix up the medium term outlook again and turn focus back to 104.69 low.

USD/JPY’s strong rebound last week argues that corrective fall from 111.65 might have completed with three waves down to 108.71 already. Initial focus is now on 110.58 resistance first. Break will bring retest of 111.65 high. On the downside, though, below 109.39 minor support will bring retest of 108.71 support instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. For now, outlook won’t turn bullish as long as 111.71 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.96; (P) 107.20; (R1) 107.43; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. With 107.64 resistance intact, another fall could be seen in through 106.07. But in that case, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, firm break of 107.64 should suggest completion of the fall from 109.85. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for this resistance.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Break of 105.98 support could extend the down trend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.89; (P) 106.29; (R1) 106.98; More...

USD/JPY is still holding in range of 105.10/107.05 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case of near term reversal and bring stronger rally. On the downside, break of 105.10 will target a test on 104.18. Break there will resume whole decline from 111.71.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.66; (P) 108.81; (R1) 109.01; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly up the upside. Sustained trading above 108.80 resistance will confirm short term bottoming at 106.78. Further rise should then been seen to 110.67 resistance next. However, on the downside, break of 108.28 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 107.53 support and then 106.78 low.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.74; (P) 139.52; (R1) 140.30; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation above 137.66 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. Stronger rise cannot be ruled out, but upside should be limited below 145.16 support turned resistance. Break of 137.66 will resume the decline from 151.93, to 133.07 fibonacci level, as a correction to the larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 130.58).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.62; (P) 106.20; (R1) 106.70; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 105.04 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 107.09 minor resistance intact, further decline is in favor. On the downside, break of 105.04 will resume larger decline from 112.40 to 104.69 low. Break will target 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. On the upside, though, break of 107.09 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. In this case, stronger rebound would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.86).

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.40; (P) 111.82; (R1) 112.52; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 112.40 resistance. Decisive break there will affirm medium term bullishness and target 114.54 key resistance next. On the downside, below 111.11 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 110.28 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that corrective fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) might have completed with three waves down to 104.45 already. Focus is back of 114.54 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm this case and bring resumption of whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) towards 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.14; (P) 110.91; (R1) 111.49; More..

USD/JPY is still holding above 110.28 resistance turned support and intraday bias remains neutral first. Another rise could be seen and firm break of 112.40 resistance will affirm medium term bullishness and target 114.54 key resistance next. However, sustained break of 110.28 would raise the chance that whole rise from 104.45 has completed. Deeper fall would be seen back to 108.30 support first.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that corrective fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) might have completed with three waves down to 104.45 already. Focus is back of 114.54 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm this case and bring resumption of whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) towards 125.85 (2015 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 108.30 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.43; (P) 112.69; (R1) 112.92; More…

USD/JPY’s decline from 113.63 accelerates today. But still, it’s staying above 112.02 support. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Also, near term outlook stays bullish as long as 112.02 support holds. Break of 113.74 will resume the rebound from 110.83 and target 114.73 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, break of 112.02 will likely extend the corrective pattern from 114.73 with another leg through 110.83 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.72; (P) 113.80; (R1) 114.44; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for 111.58 low. Current development argues that consolidation from 111.58 has completed with three waves to 115.49. And larger decline from 118.65 is resuming. Break of 111.58 will target 61.8% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 111.12. That coincides with 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. We’d tentatively expect strong support from there to bring rebound. But firm break there will target 100% projection at 108.42. On the upside, outlook will stays bearish as long as 115.49 holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.53; (P) 112.73; (R1) 112.91; More..

Intraday bias stays neutral for consolidation above 112.23 temporary low. As long as 113.24 minor resistance holds, another fall is mildly in favor. On the downside, break of 112.23 will target 111.37 and possibly below. But still, price actions from 114.54 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Hence, even in case of deep decline, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound. Larger rise from 104.62 is expected to resume later. On the upside, above 113.24 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 114.03 resistance.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.64; (P) 106.97; (R1) 107.28; More...

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, below 106.63 will target 106.07. Break there will extend the whole pattern from 111.71 and target 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20. On the upside, however, break of 108.16 will resume the rebound from 106.07 and target 109.85 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.06; (P) 135.18; (R1) 136.09; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 136.70 and intraday bias remains neutral. Downside of retreat should be contained above 131.48 support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81 will target 100% projection at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.18; (P) 105.33; (R1) 105.58; More...

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 106.10 will target 106.94 resistance. Sustained break there should confirm completion of the whole decline from 111.71. On the downside, break of 104.94 support will revive near term bearishness and target a test on 104.00 low instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.93; (P) 147.40; (R1) 147.76; More…

USD/JPY dips notably today, but stays well above 144.43 support. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point, as consolidation from 147.88 could extend. But outlook remains bullish with 144.43 support intact. On the upside, above 147.88 will resume larger rise from 127.20, to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by break of 137.22 support will indicate that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.73; (P) 108.89; (R1) 109.11; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 108.93 indicates resumption of rise from 104.45. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 109.31 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications next target will be 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. On the downside, however, break of 108.25 support will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for 106.48 support next.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.40; (P) 107.65; (R1) 108.00; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 106.91 will extend the decline from 111.71 to 100% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58. On the upside, break of 109.38 will suggest that fall from 111.71 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 111.71/112.22 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.63; (P) 149.79; (R1) 150.08; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and range trading is still in progress. On the downside, below 148.24 minor support will turn bias to the downside for another down leg through 147.28. On the upside, firm break of 150.15 will resume larger up trend to test 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.51; (P) 108.70; (R1) 108.99; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. Further rise is expected with 107.93 minor support intact. Break o 108.99 will resume the rebound from 106.78 for 100% projection of 106.78 to 108.99 from 107.21 at 109.42 and then 161.8% projection at 110.78. On the downside, below 107.93 minor support will turn bias back to the downside instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) not completed yet, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.