Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.23; (P) 130.94; (R1) 131.57; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the downside at this point. Fall from 137.90 is in progress for retesting 127.20 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 151.93 to 122.61 fibonacci projection level. On the upside, break of 132.99 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 127.20 should have completed at 137.90 as a corrective move. The down trend from 151.93 (2022 high) is still in progress. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

USD/JPY’s rebound from 109.05 extended higher last week. The development argues that corrective fall from 111.65 has completed. Initial bias stays on the upside for retesting 111.65 next. On the downside, though, break of 110.00 will turn bias back to the downside for 109.05. Break will resume the fall from 111.65 to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. For now, outlook won’t turn bullish as long as 111.71 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.95; (P) 111.32; (R1) 111.62; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 110.23 temporary low. Overall, the development suggests that whole corrective decline from 118.65 is going to extend lower. Below 110.23 turn bias back to the downside and send USD/JPY through 108.12 low. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming signal again at 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.22; (P) 106.53; (R1) 107.08; More…

USD/JPY rises to as high as 107.14 so far today. break of 107.00 indicates resumption of rebound from 104.62. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. Hence, we’ll look at the reaction from 108.48 (which is close to 108.12 too) to assess the chance. On the downside, below 105.65 support will indicate that the rebound is completed and turn bias back to the downside for 104.62 and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.89; (P) 107.19; (R1) 107.68; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. Even though rebound from 104.62 might extend, the reaction from 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 is crucial to determine the outlook. Firm break of 108.48 will add some credence to the case of trend reversal. And USD/JPY should target 61.8% retracement at 110.86 next. Nonetheless, rejection from 108.48 (which is close to 108.12 key resistance too), will retain bearishness. Break of 105.65 support will indicate that the rebound is completed and turn bias back to the downside for 104.62 and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.74; (P) 108.10; (R1) 108.42; More…

USD/JPY is staying in tight range below 108.57 and intraday bias remains neutral first. With 107.45 minor support intact, further rise cannot be ruled out. But we’d continue to look for topping sign as it approaches this 109.31 key resistance. On the downside, break of 107.45 minor support will suggest that rebound from 104.45 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside. Break of 106.68 resistance turned support will confirm and target 104.45 low. However, decisive break of 109.31 will carry larger bullish implication.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.04; (P) 130.14; (R1) 131.95; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 121.27 to 129.39 from 126.91 at 131.92. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 135.03. On the downside, break of 126.91 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% project at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.15; (P) 110.39; (R1) 110.79; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 109.76 extends higher today but it’s staying below 111.42 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Price actions from 113.17 are viewed as a correction. We’d continue to expect strong support around 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 111.42 will turn bias back to the the upside for retesting 113.17 first. However, sustained break of 109.90 will put 109.36 key support level in focus. Break of 109.36 will carry larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.93; (P) 154.30; (R1) 155.02; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 154.77 will resume larger up trend. But considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, strong resistance should be seen from 155.20 fibonacci level to bring correction on first attempt. On the downside, break of 153.58 will turn bias to the downside, for deeper pull back to 55 D EMA (now at 150.97).

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 146.47 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.97; (P) 139.48; (R1) 140.19; More…

For now, strong resistance is still expected by 55 4H EMA (now at 139.87) to complete the recovery from 137.22. Break of 137.22 and sustained trading below 137.90 resistance turned support will confirm the larger bearish case, and target 127.20 and below. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 4H EMA will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 145.06 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Sustained break of 137.90 resistance turned support should confirm this case and target 127.20 (2023 low) and below. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 145.06 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.42; (P) 151.16; (R1) 152.72; More…

USD/JPY’s fall from 161.94 is still in progress and hit 148.66 fibonacci level already. Strong support could be seen from the current level, which is close to medium term channel support (now at 148.22) to bring rebound. However, break of 155.21 resistance is needed to confirm short term bottoming. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, considering the depth and momentum of the current decline, 161.94 should be a medium term top already. Fall from there is seen as correcting the whole rise from 127.20 (2023 low) at least. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 161.94 at 148.66. Decisive break there will pave the way to 140.25 support next. Risk will now stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 156.42) holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.88; (P) 131.44; (R1) 132.46; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current up trend should target 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81 next. On the downside, below 130.97 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral to bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.37; (P) 121.90; (R1) 122.63; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside at this point. Current up trend should target 161.8% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 126.09, which is close to 125.85 long term resistance. On the downside, below 122.13 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) in in progress for retesting 125.85 (2015 high). Sustained break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. This will now remain the favored case as long as 116.34 resistance turned support holds.

USD/JPY edged higher 109.67 last week but lost momentum since then. Initial bias is neutral for some consolidations first. Downside of retreat should be contained well above 108.24 support to bring another rally. Rise from 104.45 has just resumed and break of 109.67 should target 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50 next.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.92; (P) 106.16; (R1) 106.48; More..

Break of 106.21 resistance suggests resumption of whole rebound from 102.58. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rally could be seen to 61.8% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 108.22. However, break of 104.91 support will argue that the rebound has completed, and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.84) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.15).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.78; (P) 107.29; (R1) 107.61; More…

USD/JPY recovers mildly today but further decline should be seen with 107.79 minor resistance intact. As noted before, rebound from 104.45 should have completed at 108.47 already. Break of 106.68 will confirm this case and target retest of 104.45 low. On the upside, break of 107.79 will turn focus back to 108.47 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.28; (P) 113.64; (R1) 114.00; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is neutral for moment. Due to loss of upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD, in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 114.54/73 zone to bring reversal. On the downside, break of 112.94 minor support will extend the consolidation pattern from 114.54 with another falling leg back to 111.37. Overall, rise from 104.62 is still in progress and decisive break of 114.73 will confirm resumption.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.59; (P) 108.95; (R1) 109.15; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. With 108.34 minor support intact, further rise is mildly in favor. Break of 109.77 will resume the rebound from 107.47 to retest 110.95 high. On the downside, break of 108.34 will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support and below instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. We’d monitor the structure of the fall from 110.95, to assess whether it’s just correction to rise from 102.58 to 110.95, or a leg of a range pattern between 101.18 and 111.71, or starting another leg of the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.25; (P) 112.42; (R1) 112.68; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in range of 112.02/113.74. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Also, near term outlook stays bullish as long as 112.02 support holds and further rise is expected. Break of 113.74 will resume the rebound from 110.83 and target 114.73 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, break of 112.02 will likely extend the corrective pattern from 114.73 with another leg through 110.83 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.59; (P) 151.76; (R1) 151.96; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 150.80 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back to 55 D EMA (now at 149.73). On the upside, however, sustained break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.