USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.35; (P) 103.54; (R1) 103.81; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as consolidation from 102.87 is extending. Outlook remains bearish as it’s staying well inside falling channel from 111.71. Break of 102.87 will bring deeper fall to retest 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 104.57 resistance is needed to be the first sign of bullish reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong recovery.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.59; (P) 111.80; (R1) 111.96; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral as consolidation from 112.07 temporary top is extending. Deeper pull back cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained above 110.35 support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 112.07 will resume rise from 104.69 for 114.54 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current strong rebound from 104.69 argues that decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.69, after failing 104.62. More importantly, the rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus now turns back to 114.54 resistance, decisive break there will add more credence to this bullish case and target 118.65. This will now be the favored case as long as 110.35 support holds.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 126.92; (P) 127.94; (R1) 128.84; More…

USD/JPY’s correction from 131.34 is still in progress and would extend lower to 125.09 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 114.40 to 131.34 at 124.86). Strong support is expected from there to contain downside to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 129.77 minor resistance will suggest that the correction is finished and bring retest of 131.34.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.50; (P) 113.01; (R1) 113.35; More..

USD/JPY is still bounded in range of 112.23/113.70 despite this week’s sharp fall. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, above 113.70 will target 114.20 resistance first. Break there will resume the rise from 111.37 and target 114.73 key resistance next. However, break of 112.23 support will extend the corrective pattern from 114.54 with another decline. Overall, price actions 114.54 are seen as a consolidative pattern. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound. Larger rise from 104.62 is expected to resume later.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY rose to as high as 109.53 last week but formed a temporary top there on loss of momentum. Initial bias is neutral this week for consolidations. Downside of retreat should be contained by 107.77 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Break of 109.53 will resume the rise from 104.62 and target 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 110.86 next.

In the bigger picture, break of 108.12 support turned resistance now suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. And, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus is back on 114.73 resistance and break there will pave the way to 118.65 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as USD/JPY stays above 55 day EMA (now at 107.60).

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.64; (P) 114.96; (R1) 115.23; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. More sideway trading could be seen. On the upside, firm break of 116.34 will resume larger up trend from 102.58 to 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 114.40 will continue the corrective pattern from 116.34 with another fall to 113.46 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.64) holds.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.69; (P) 109.82; (R1) 111.74; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 112.22 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, break of 106.75 support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 101.18 low instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) is still in progress. It’s seen as part of a larger consolidative pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). Such decline could could extend through 98.97 (2016 low). For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 112.22 resistance holds, even in case of rebound. However, break of 112.22 will be a strong sign on medium term bullish reversal.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.36; (P) 107.73; (R1) 107.92; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 107.45 minor support suggests that rebound from 104.45 has completed at 108.47 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 106.68 support first. Break will confirm and target for retest of 104.45 low. On the upside, break of 108.47 will extend the rebound towards 109.31 key resistance. However, before that, risk will now stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.94; (P) 111.27; (R1) 111.62; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 110.23 is still progress and could extend. Overall, recent development suggests that whole corrective decline from 118.65 is going to extend lower. Below 110.23 turn bias back to the downside and send USD/JPY through 108.12 low. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming signal again at 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.45; (P) 109.78; (R1) 110.10; More…

With 110.28 minor support intact, intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside despite diminishing downside momentum. Sustained break of 109.72 key support will confirm completion of rebound from 104.69 at 112.40 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Deeper decline should then be seen back to retest 104.69 low. On the upside, though, rebound from current level and break of 110.28 minor resistance will mix up near term outlook. Intraday bias will be turned neutral in this case first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Thus, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. Sustained break of 109.71 will argue that rebound from 104.69 is completed. And the down trend from 118.65 is still in progress. But at this stage, in case of break of 104.69, we’d expect strong support above 98.9 (2016 low) to contain downside an bring rebound.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.71; (P) 150.00; (R1) 150.44; More…

USD/JPY’s rally continues today and stays above 150 handle, without clear sign of intervention by Japan. Intraday bias stays on the upside. Current up trend would target 100% projection of 130.38 to 140.33 from 145.89 at 155.84 next. On the downside, break of 149.54 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations But near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 145.89 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is no clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 140.33 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.57; (P) 107.25; (R1) 109.31; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for now and more consolidation would be seen. But upside should be limited by 109.36 minor resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 106.74 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 104.62 low. Decisive break of 104.62 low will extend larger down trend and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Fall from 114.54 is seen as another medium term down leg, targeting 98.97/104.62 support zone. For now, we’d expect strong support from there to contain downside to bring rebound.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

Despite last week’s strong rally, USD/JPY failed to break through 109.72 so far. A temporary top should be in place and initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 109.72 will resume whole rise form 104.45 to channel resistance (now at 111.46). On the downside, break of 109.00 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 104.45 to 109.72 at 107.70 holds.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). There is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Hence, rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.24; (P) 149.97; (R1) 150.74; More…

USD/JPY rebounded strongly after brief dip to 149.20 and intraday remains neutral for now. On the upside, decisive break of 150.87 will resume whole rally from 140.25 to retest 151.89/93 key resistance zone. On the other hand, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 149.20 will confirm short term topping at 150.87. Deeper fall would be seen to channel support (now at 148.29), even as a corrective move.

In the bigger picture, rise from 140.25 is seen as resuming the trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Decisive break of 151.89/.93 resistance zone will confirm this bullish case and target 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.50. However, break of 148.79 resistance turned support will delay this bullish case, and extend the corrective pattern from 151.89 with another falling leg.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.82; (P) 112.18; (R1) 112.53; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral for consolidation with a temporary low in place at 111.82. But further decline is expected as long as 113.28 resistance holds. Fall from 114.54 is seen as correcting whole up trend from 104.62, after rejection by 114.73 resistance. Below 111.82 will target 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75. We’ll look for bottoming signal above 109.76 key support.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.95; (P) 110.21; (R1) 110.49; More…

USD/JPY is in mild recovery but risk stays on the downside as long as 110.81 holds. Choppy rise from 107.47 could have completed after rejection by 110.95 resistance. Further fall is in favor to 109.17 support. Break there will confirm and target 107.47 again.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. On the upside, decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 107.47 support would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.38; (P) 103.54; (R1) 103.66; More..

USD/JPY is still extending the consolidation from 102.87 and intraday bias remains neural. Outlook stays bearish as it’s staying well inside falling channel from 111.71. Break of 102.87 will bring deeper fall to retest 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 104.57 resistance is needed to be the first sign of bullish reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong recovery.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.82; (P) 108.73; (R1) 109.20; More…

USD/JPY’s decline is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside. Current fall from 112.40 should target 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support zone. On the upside, break of 109.15 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying indicate long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3164; (P) 1.3219; (R1) 1.3318; More

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside at this point. Rebound from 1.2999 short term bottom is targeting 55 day EMA (now at 1.3355). Sustained break there will target medium term channel resistance (now at 1.3590). On the downside, break of 1.3119 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 1.2999. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4248.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) has completed at 1.4248. Decline from 1.4248 could still be a corrective move, or it could be the start of a long term down trend. In either case, deeper decline would be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.2493. In any case, break of 1.3748 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming, or outlook will stay bearish.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.29; (P) 104.51; (R1) 104.90; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first and further decline is mildly in favor with 105.85 resistance intact. Firm break of 104.00 will resume larger decline from 111.71, towards 101.18 low. On the upside, firm break of 105.05 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 106.10 resistance.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.