Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.85; (P) 134.41; (R1) 134.82; More…

USD/JPY’s retreat from 135.13 extends lower today but stays above 132.03 support. Outlook is unchanged and intraday bias remains neutral first. Another rally will remain in favor as long as 132.03 support holds. On the upside, break of 135.13 will resume the choppy rebound from 129.62 towards 137.90 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 127.20 might be extending. But after all, down trend from 151.93 is expected to resume at a later stage. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.98; (P) 113.32; (R1) 113.57; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside as fall from 114.69 is in progress. We’d still expect downside to be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 113.65 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 114.69. However, sustained break of 112.07 will dampen our bullish view and bring deeper fall back towards 109.11 structural support.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

USD/JPY’s rise form 107.47 resumed last week by breaking through 109.77 resistance. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for retesting 110.95 high. Firm break there will resume larger rise from 102.58 to 111.71 resistance next. On the downside, break of 108.55 will turn bias to the downside for 107.47 support instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 126.13; (P) 127.10; (R1) 127.85; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as correction from 131.34 could still extend lower. But downside should be contained by 125.09 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 114.40 to 131.34 at 124.86) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 129.77 minor resistance will suggest that the correction is finished and bring retest of 131.34.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.03; (P) 139.55; (R1) 140.49; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation below 140.90 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 138.22 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 140.90 will resume larger rise from 127.20 to 142.48 fibonacci level. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 138.22 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 136.27).

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Stronger rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 151.93. On the downside, however, break of 133.73 support will argue that the pattern could have started the third leg through 127.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.69; (P) 109.30; (R1) 110.34; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 108.26 is still in progress but it’s limited below 110.94 resistance so far. Intraday bias stays neutral with outlook mildly bearish. Firm break of 108.12 support will resume the whole corrective decline from 118.65. In that case, USD/JPY will target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 110.94 will indicate near term reversal and bring stronger rebound back towards 114.49 resistance.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

USD/JPY rose to 110.81 last week but failed to break through 110.95 resistance and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 110.95 will resume larger up trend from 102.58 to 111.71 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 109.79 support will suggest rejection by 110.95. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 109.17 support. Break there will extend the consolidation pattern from 110.95 with another falling leg, targeting 107.47 support again.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.93; (P) 108.22; (R1) 108.66; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Price actions from 109.72 are merely a corrective pattern, which could have completed at 107.77, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 104.45 to 109.72 at 107.70. Further rise should be seen for 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 108.70). Sustained break will pave the way to retest 109.72 high. On the downside, firm break of 107.70 will pave the way to 106.48 cluster support (61.8% retracement at 106.46).

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Recovery from 104.45 also failed to sustain above 55 week EMA (now at 109.02). Overall outlook remains bearish and fall from 118.65 is in favor to extend through 104.45 low. This will now stay as the favored case as long as 109.72 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.11; (P) 110.39; (R1) 110.77; More…

USD/JPY’s recovery from 109.02 might extend higher. But upside should be limited by 55 day EMA (now at 110.84) to bring another fall. On the downside, below 109.81 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 109.02. Break there will extend the decline from 112.40 to retest 104.69 low. However, sustained trading above 55 day EMA will indicate completion of the fall from 112.40 and bring retest of this high.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Currently development suggests that rebound from 104.69 is only a corrective move. And fall from 118.65 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 104.69 will extend the down trend towards 98.97 support (2016 low). For now, we’d expect strong support above there to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.10; (P) 108.70; (R1) 109.36; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside. The fall from 114.73 has just resumed. It’s part of the pattern from 118.65 high and should target 106.48 fibonacci level. On the upside, break of 110.47 resistance is needed to indicate near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. There is risk of dropping further to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. But this level should provide strong support to contain downside and bring resumption of rise from 98.97. However, sustained break of 106.48 will now likely send USD/JPY through 98.97 to resume the corrective fall from 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.05; (P) 109.33; (R1) 109.81; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 108.59 temporary low. Near term outlook stays bearish with 110.94 resistance intact and deeper decline is expected. Break of 108.59 will target a test on 108.12 low. Whole corrective decline from 118.65 is possibly resuming and break of 108.12 will target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, firm break of 110.94 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

USD/JPY dropped to 106.35 last week but recovered since then. Some support was seen from 61.8% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 106.41. Yet, the strength of the recovery was very limited. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 106.35 will target 100% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58. Reactions from there could reveal whether fall from 111.71 is corrective or impulsive. On the upside, break of 108.04 resistance will suggest completion of the fall form 111.71 and target 109.38 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.35; (P) 114.04; (R1) 114.39; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. As long as 112.95 support holds, near term outlook remains bullish and further rally is in favor. Sustained trading above 114.49 will pave the way to retest 118.65 high. However, break of 112.95 support will now indicate rejection from 114.49 and turn bias to the downside for 111.64 support and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completes. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.80; (P) 109.00; (R1) 109.17; More…

USD/JPY recovers after drawing support from 4 hour 55 EMA, but stays below 109.28/31 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, decisive break of 109.28/31 resistance will firstly resume rise from 104.45 low. It will also be an early sign of medium term reversal. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 112.40 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 107.88 will turn bias to the downside for 106.48 support next.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.42; (P) 109.99; (R1) 110.30; More…

USD/JPY’s correction from 110.95 short term top is still in progress and deeper fall could be seen to 108.40 support. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 107.75 to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 110.95 will resume the whole rise from 102.58, for 111.71/112.22 resistance zone next

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the corrective down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed at 101.18. Firm break of 112.22 resistance should confirms this bullish case. A medium term up trend could then has started for 100% projection of 101.18 to 111.71 from 102.58 at 113.11 and then 161.8% projection at 119.61. Rejection by 111.71, however, will keep medium term outlook neutral first.

USD/JPY’s rise from 129.62 resumed last week and accelerated to as high as 136.55. Initial bias stays on the upside for 137.90 resistance. Firm break there will resume whole rebound from 127.20, and target 100% projection of 127.20 to 137.90 from 129.62 at 140.32. For now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 133.00 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 high are currently seen as a corrective pattern to the long term up trend. The first leg should have completed at 127.20. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg. Sustained break of 31.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34 will bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 142.48. Meanwhile, break of 129.62 will argue that the third leg is starting through 127.20 low.

In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.36; (P) 115.58; (R1) 115.88; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, firm break of 116.34 will resume larger up trend from 102.58 to 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 114.40 will continue the corrective pattern from 116.34 with another fall to 113.46 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.64) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.02; (P) 111.34; (R1) 111.56; More…

Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. While the consolidative pattern from 111.82 might extend with another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, break 111.82 will indicate that rise from 109.76 is resuming. And intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 113.17 high. Decisive break there will resume larger rally from 104.62.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.39; (P) 108.79; (R1) 109.18; More…

USD/JPY continues to stay in consolidation above 108.27 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. As long as 110.18 resistance holds, deeper decline is expected. On the downside, break of 108.27 will extend recent fall through 107.31 support to next fibonacci support at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 110.18 will be the first sign of near term reversal and will turn bias back to the upside for 111.47 resistance.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. There is risk of dropping further to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. But this level should provide strong support to contain downside and bring resumption of rise from 98.97. However, sustained break of 106.48 will now likely send USD/JPY through 98.97 to resume the corrective fall from 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.03; (P) 113.49; (R1) 113.78; More…

USD/JPY’s consolidation pattern from 114.36 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral first. In case of deeper pull back, downside should be contained by 112.08 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 108.12 to 114.36 at 111.97) and bring rally resumption. We’re holding on to the view that corrective fall from 118.65 is completed with three wave down to 108.12. Above 114.36 will target 115.49 resistance first. Break there should resume whole rise from 98.97 to 125.85 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 115.49 resistance will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.