Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.65; (P) 109.46; (R1) 109.94; More…

USD/JPY’s sharp decline and break of 109.22 minor support indicates that rebound from 108.27 has completed at 110.47. More importantly, larger fall from 114.73 is still in progress. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for 108.27 first. Break will now likely resume the medium term correction from 118.65. That will send USD/JPY through 107.31 to 106.48 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. There is risk of dropping further to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. But this level should provide strong support to contain downside and bring resumption of rise from 98.97. However, sustained break of 106.48 will now likely send USD/JPY through 98.97 to resume the corrective fall from 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.35; (P) 111.75; (R1) 112.11; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral as it retreats deeply after hitting 112.14. With 111.24 minor support intact, further rise is still in favor. Above 112.14 will target 113.17 resistance next. Firm break there will resume larger rally from 104.62 for 114.73 key resistance next. On the downside, below 111.24 minor support might extend the corrective fall from 113.17 with another decline. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.01; (P) 138.71; (R1) 139.41; More…

USD/JPY is extending the consolidation from 137.22 and intraday bias stays neutral. Upside of recovery should be limited by 55 4H EMA (now at 140.06) and bring another decline. Break of 137.22 and sustained trading below 137.90 resistance turned support will confirm the larger bearish case, and target 127.20 and below.

In the bigger picture, fall from 145.06 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Sustained break of 137.90 resistance turned support should confirm this case and target 127.20 (2023 low) and below. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 145.06 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

USD/JPY’s steep fall last week indicates rejection from 114.49 resistance. Initial bas stays on the downside this week with focus on 111.64 support. Decisive break there will argue that whole rebound from 107.31 has completed. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 101.14 and below. On the upside, though, break of 113.32 minor resistance will indicate that the pull back is completed and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completes. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming. However, firm break of 111.64 support will dampen this view and turn focus back to 107.31 instead.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.68; (P) 111.23; (R1) 111.60; More….

As long as 109.58 minor support intact, further rise is still expected in USD/JPY. Sustained trading above 111.58 support turned resistance will indicate that fall from 118.65 is merely a corrective move and has completed. Outlook will then be turned bullish for 115.49 resistance and above. However, break of 109.58 will argue that fall from 118.65 is still in progress and will turn bias to the downside for 108.12 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that it’s not completed yet and is extending. In case of deeper decline, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.48; (P) 153.40; (R1) 154.86; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidations continue above 151.93 temporary low. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 155.36 support turned resistance holds. Decisive break of 151.89 resistance turned support will argue that large scale correction is underway to 148.66 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, break of 155.36 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, considering the depth and momentum of the current decline, 161.94 should be a medium term top already. Fall from there is seen as correcting the whole rise from 127.20 (2023 low) at least. Break of 151.89 will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 161.94 at 148.66. Risk will now stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 157.25) holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.13; (P) 151.35; (R1) 151.64; More…

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged at consolidation from 151.82 is still extending. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 150.25 support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03. However, firm break of 150.25 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.67; (P) 109.88; (R1) 110.04; More…

USD/JPY is staying in established range above 109.52 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Also, risk stays mildly on the downside with 111.65 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 109.52, and sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 109.83) will suggest that it’s at least correcting the rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest long term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall back towards 102.58 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.75; (P) 135.02; (R1) 135.40; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Deeper decline is mildly in favor with 135.68 minor resistance intact. Fall from 137.76 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 137.90. Below 133.48 will target 133.00 first, break will target 129.62 support. Still, as long as 129.62 holds, larger rebound from 127.20 is still in favor to resume at a later stage. On the upside, above 135.68 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 137.76/90 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 high are currently seen as a corrective pattern to the long term up trend. The first leg should have completed at 127.20. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34 will bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 142.48. Meanwhile, break of 129.62 will argue that the third leg is starting through 127.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.36; (P) 109.51; (R1) 109.73; More..

No change in USD/JPY and consolidation from 109.72 might extend further. Intraday bias stays neutral first. As long as 108.27 support holds, outlook remains bullish for further rally. On the upside, break of 109.72 will resume the rise from 104.45 for 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. However, sustained break of 108.27 support will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.33; (P) 150.61; (R1) 150.86; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as consolidation from 150.87 is extending. Downside of consolidation should be contained by 148.79 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Above 150.87 will resume the rise from 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will confirm larger up trend resumption of 155.50 projection level next. However, firm break of 148.79 will turn bias to the downside for 145.88 support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as a correction to the rally from 127.20, which might have completed at 140.25 already. Firm break of 151.89/93 resistance zone will confirm up trend resumption, and next target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.50. This will now remain the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.59; (P) 111.80; (R1) 111.96; More…

USD/JPY is losing some upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But intraday bias remains on the upside with 111.50 minor support intact. Current rise from 104.69 should target 114.54 resistance next. On the downside, below 111.50 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 110.35 support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, current strong rebound from 104.69 argues that decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.69, after failing 104.62. More importantly, the rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus now turns back to 114.54 resistance, decisive break there will add more credence to this bullish case and target 118.65. This will now be the favored case as long as 110.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.84; (P) 107.25; (R1) 107.74; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, break of 108.27 will be the first sign of near term reversal and will target 110.47 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 106.37 minor support will bring retest of 105.54 low. Break of 105.54 will extend the larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.09; (P) 145.52; (R1) 146.19; More…

USD/JPY’s rally from 140.25 resumed by breaking 146.40 and intraday bias is back on the upside. Strong resistance should be seen from 61.8% retracement of 151.89 to 140.25 at 147.4 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 144.34 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 140.25 low. However, firm break of 147.44 will target 151.89 high instead.

In the bigger picture, for now, fall from 151.89 is still seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.89. Another decline through 140.25 will target 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63. Sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). However, firm break of 147.44 fibonacci resistance will dampen this view and bring retest of 151.89 instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.22; (P) 106.53; (R1) 107.08; More…

USD/JPY rises to as high as 107.14 so far today. break of 107.00 indicates resumption of rebound from 104.62. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. Hence, we’ll look at the reaction from 108.48 (which is close to 108.12 too) to assess the chance. On the downside, below 105.65 support will indicate that the rebound is completed and turn bias back to the downside for 104.62 and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.91; (P) 116.05; (R1) 116.29; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current rally is part of the up trend from 102.58. Further rise should be seen to next long term resistance at 118.65. On the downside, below 116.24 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 114.40 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.75) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.45; (P) 104.81; (R1) 105.10; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for 104.18 support. Break there will resume larger fall from 111.71 and target 61.8% projection of 109.85 to 104.18 from 106.94 at 103.43 next. On the upside, above 104.87 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first, for some consolidations, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.99; (P) 106.14; (R1) 106.30; More...

Sideway trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case that pull back fall from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 104.18. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 109.85 resistance. On the downside, break of 105.10 will bring retest 104.18 support first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

USD/JPY rebounded to 113.70 last week but retreated notably since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, above 113.70 will target 114.20 resistance first. Break there will resume the rise from 111.37 and target 114.73 key resistance next. However, break of 112.23 support will extend the corrective pattern from 114.54 with another decline. Overall, price actions 114.54 are seen as a consolidative pattern. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound. Larger rise from 104.62 is expected to resume later.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.50; (P) 139.89; (R1) 140.49; More…

USD/JPY’s rally resumed by breaking through 140.90 resistance. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rise from 127.20 should now target 142.48 fibonacci level next. For now, outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 139.27 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Stronger rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 142.48. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 151.93. On the downside, however, break of 133.73 support will argue that the pattern could have started the third leg through 127.20 low.