USD/JPY rose to 111.13 last week and breached 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77. But the pair couldn’t sustain above 110.77 and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 110.00 resistance turned support will suggest rejection by 110.77 and the rebound from 104.69 has likely completed. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 108.49 support for confirmation. Nevertheless, break of 111.13 should confirm resumption of rise from 104.69 for 114.54 resistance.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was stronger than expected, it couldn’t sustain above 55 day EMA yet. Outlook is turned mixed first. On the downside, break of 108.49 support will revive that case that such rebound was a correction. And, larger down trend is still in progress for another low below 104.62. But sustained trading above 55 day EMA will turn focus to 114.54. Decisive break there will confirmation completion of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high).

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.36; (P) 115.58; (R1) 115.88; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as sideway trading from 116.34 is still extending. Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, firm break of 116.34 will resume larger up trend from 102.58 to 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 114.40 will continue the corrective pattern from 116.34 with another fall to 113.46 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.64) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.11; (P) 104.51; (R1) 107.01; More..

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as we’d still expect strong resistance around 38.2% retracement of 112.22 to 101.18 at 105.39 to complete the corrective recovery from 101.18. Break of 103.22 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 101.18. Nevertheless, firm break of 105.39 will bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 108.00.

In the bigger picture, fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress. It’s seen as part of a larger consolidative pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). Such decline could could extend through 98.97 (2016 low). For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 112.22 resistance holds, even in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.16; (P) 139.57; (R1) 140.05; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 140.90 is extending. Further rally is expected as long as 138.22 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 140.90 will resume larger rise from 127.20 to 142.48 fibonacci level. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 138.22 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 136.35).

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Stronger rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 151.93. On the downside, however, break of 133.73 support will argue that the pattern could have started the third leg through 127.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.40; (P) 109.62; (R1) 109.87; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 109.05 will resume the decline from 111.65. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18. On the upside, break of 110.58 will resume the rebound from 109.05, for retesting 111.65 high.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. For now, outlook won’t turn bullish as long as 111.71 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.65; (P) 150.04; (R1) 150.40; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment as consolidation from 150.87 is extending. In case of another retreat, downside should be contained by 148.79 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Above 150.87 will resume the rise from 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will confirm larger up trend resumption of 155.50 projection level next. However, firm break of 148.79 will turn bias to the downside for 145.88 support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as a correction to the rally from 127.20, which might have completed at 140.25 already. Firm break of 151.89/93 resistance zone will confirm up trend resumption, and next target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.50. This will now remain the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.49; (P) 148.10; (R1) 150.62; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidation would be seen for the near term. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 130.38 to 151.93 at 143.69 to bring rebound. Upside of rally attempt should be limited by 151.39 resistance.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is no clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 140.33 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.92; (P) 113.22; (R1) 113.58; More…

USD/JPY’s decline resumes in early US session and reaches as low as 112.44 so far. The break of 112.88 support indicates rejection from 114.36 resistance. And, rise from 108.81 should be completed at 114.49. More importantly, the corrective pattern from 118.65 is likely still in progress. Intraday bias is now back on the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 111.98). Firm break there will target 108.12 low and below. Above 113.57 minor resistance will turn focus back to 114.49 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.18; (P) 108.35; (R1) 108.61; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, sustained break of 108.80 will confirm short term bottoming at 106.78. In this case, stronger rise should be seen back to 110.67 resistance. On the other hand, rejection by 108.80, followed by break of 107.56 will retain near term bearishness. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 106.78 support instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.58; (P) 108.68; (R1) 108.83; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point and outlook is unchanged. With 108.27 support intact, further rally is still expected. On the upside, above 109.20 minor resistance will bring retest of 109.72 first. However, firm break of 108.27 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 106.48 support.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

USD/JPY’s fall from 161.94 extended to as low as 151.93 last week, but recovered after breaching 151.98 resistance turned support briefly. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 155.36 support turned resistance holds. Decisive break of 151.89 resistance turned support will argue that large scale correction is underway to 148.66 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, break of 155.36 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, considering the depth and momentum of the current decline, 161.94 should be a medium term top already. Fall from there is seen as correcting the whole rise from 127.20 (2023 low) at least. Break of 151.89 will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 161.94 at 148.66. Risk will now stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 157.17) holds, in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, as long as 140.25 support holds, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 102.58 at 172.08.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.28; (P) 150.52; (R1) 150.76; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 150.87 is extending. In case of another retreat, downside should be contained by 148.79 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 150.87 will resume 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will confirm larger up trend resumption of 155.50 projection level next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 140.25 is seen as resuming the trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Decisive break of 151.89/.93 resistance zone will confirm this bullish case and target 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.50. However, break of 148.79 resistance turned support will delay this bullish case, and extend the corrective pattern from 151.89 with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.46; (P) 109.71; (R1) 110.10; More…

USD/JPY’s recovery from 109.02 was limited by 4 hour 55 EMA and 110.03 minor resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first and recent fall is expected to resume sooner rather than later. On the downside, break of 109.02 will resume the fall from 112.40 to retest 104.69 low. Nevertheless, break of 110.04 minor resistance will indicate short term bottom. Lengthier consolidation could then be seen before another decline.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Currently development suggests that rebound from 104.69 is only a corrective move. And fall from 118.65 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 104.69 will extend the down trend towards 98.97 support (2016 low). For now, we’d expect strong support above there to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.13; (P) 143.53; (R1) 144.11; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as sideway consolidations continues. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained by 139.37 resistance turned support. On the upside, break of 144.98 will resume larger up trend to 147.68 long term resistance. Break there will target 161.8% projection of 126.35 to 139.37 from 130.38 at 151.44 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.03; (P) 111.39; (R1) 111.71; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for consolidation below 111.78 temporary top. With 110.63 minor support intact, further rise is still expected. Break of 111.78 will target near term channel resistance (now at 113.02). Sustained break there will suggest that whole pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12 already. In such case, further rise should be seen to 114.36 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 110.63 will turn bias back to the downside for 108.81 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.81; (P) 110.03; (R1) 110.33; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and risk stays on the downside with 111.65 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 109.52, and sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 109.78) will suggests that it’s at least correcting the rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest long term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall back towards 102.58 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.63; (P) 107.97; (R1) 108.69; More…

USD/JPY’s sharp decline suggests that rebound from 106.78 has completed at 109.31 already. The three wave corrective structure of the rebound argues that fall from 112.40 is still in progress. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Decisive break of 106.78 will target 104.69 low next. On the upside, above 107.56 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 109.31 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) not completed yet, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.21; (P) 138.64; (R1) 139.23; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Strong resistance could be seen from 139.37 to limit upside, to start the third leg of the corrective pattern from 139.37. Break of 136.17 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 130.38 support. Nevertheless, decisive break of 139.37 will confirm up trend resumption for 147.68 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 139.37 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 123.72) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes. Next target is 147.68 (1998 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.76; (P) 109.02; (R1) 109.28; More..

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rise is expected as long as 108.33 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 109.35 will resume the rally from 102.58 to long term channel resistance at 110.02 next. Decisive break there will carry larger implications. However, on the downside, break of 108.33 will indicate short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for correction.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.02). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.23; (P) 148.59; (R1) 150.97; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. More consolidation would be seen for the near term. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 130.38 to 151.93 at 143.69 to bring rebound. Upside of rally attempt should be limited by 151.39 resistance.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is no clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 140.33 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).