Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.39; (P) 135.89; (R1) 136.66; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 136.70 resistance indicates up trend resumption. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Next target will be 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 134.25 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

USD/JPY’s up trend accelerated to as high as 114.45 last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 114.71. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 118.18 next. On the downside, break of 113.20 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.91; (P) 109.17; (R1) 109.34; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 108.70 minor support suggests that recovery form 107.47 has completed at 109.68. That also argues that the decline from 110.95 isn’t over yet. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 107.47 first. Break there will resume the fall from 110.95. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 109.68 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 102.58 might have completed at 110.95. But strong support from 55 day EMA retains near term bullishness for the pair. Break of 110.95 resistance will carry larger bullish implications and target 112.22 resistance next. Though, break of 107.47 support will shift favor to the case of long term sideway trading between 101.18/111.71.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.49; (P) 148.10; (R1) 150.62; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 151.93 and intraday bias stays neutral. More consolidation would be seen for the near term. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 130.38 to 151.93 at 143.69 to bring rebound. Upside of rally attempt should be limited by 151.39 resistance.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is no clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 140.33 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.71; (P) 105.07; (R1) 105.35; More...

USD/JPY drops to as low as 104.52 so far and intraday bias on the downside for retesting 104.18 first. Break there will resume larger fall from 111.71 and target 61.8% projection of 109.85 to 104.18 from 106.94 at 103.43 next. On the upside, above 105.17 minor resistance will dampen this bearish view and turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

USD/JPY’s rebound from 109.76 resumed last week to as high as 112.16. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 100% projection of 109.76 to 111.82 from 110.37 at 112.43 first. Break will target a test on 113.17 high. On the downside, break of 111.10 minor support is needed to signal completion of the rebound. Otherwise, near term outlook is cautiously bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.67; (P) 137.12; (R1) 137.96; More…

USD/JPY’s rally is still in progress for 139.37 high. Strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside, to start the third leg of the corrective pattern from 139.37. Break of 136.17 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 130.38 support. Nevertheless, decisive break of 139.37 will confirm up trend resumption for 147.68 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 139.37 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 123.72) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes. Next target is 147.68 (1998 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.48; (P) 129.88; (R1) 130.25; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as sideway trading continues above 127.20. On the downside, break of 127.20 will resume the whole decline from 151.93 and target 121.43 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 131.56 resistance should confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 134.01).

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 week EMA (now at 131.39) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong support could be seen around 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 to bring rebound. But break of 131.56 resistance is needed to indicate bottoming first. Otherwise further fall will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.13; (P) 110.41; (R1) 110.91; More…

Break of 110.84 suggests resumption of rebound from 108.10. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 111.39 high first. Break there will resume larger rebound from 104.62 and target 114.73 resistance. On the downside, though, break of 109.91 will turn bias to the downside and bring another fall towards 108.10 to extend the corrective pattern from 111.39.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.20; (P) 109.53; (R1) 109.87; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral with focus on 110.26 minor resistance. Break there will resume the rebound from 108.10 for a test on 111.39 high. On the downside, below 109.18 will bring another fall to 108.10 or below. Overall, price actions from 111.39 are viewed as a corrective pattern which might extend. But in case of deeper fall, we’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.14; (P) 147.35; (R1) 147.69; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY below 147.88 and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of another pull back, near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 144.43 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 147.88 will resume larger rise from 127.20, to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by break of 137.22 support will indicate that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.69; (P) 111.09; (R1) 111.49; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Correction from 114.73 could have completed with three waves down to 110.18, ahead of 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 110.14. Above 111.47 will target 113.38 resistance first. Break of 113.38 should confirm this bullish case. However, below 110.18 will extend the correction lower. But we’d again look for bottoming signal in next fall.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

USD/JPY drops notably today but stays in range of 112.02/113.74. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Near term outlook remains bullish as long as 112.02 support holds. Break of 113.74 will resume the rebound from 110.83 and target 114.73 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, break of 112.02 will likely extend the corrective pattern from 114.73 with another leg through 110.83 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.13; (P) 141.67; (R1) 142.54; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 142.84 minor resistance indicates short term bottoming at 140.25, on bullish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias is back on the upside for stronger rebound to 38.2% retracement of 151.89 to 140.25 at 144.69. On the downside, below 141.85 minor support will bring retest of 140.25 low instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63, sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). This will now remain the favored as long as 144.94 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.43; (P) 110.71; (R1) 110.89; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, firm break 110.41 support will indicate short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 109.77). On the upside, sustained break of 111.71 will carry larger implication. Next target is 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 110.95 from 107.47 at 112.64.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.19; (P) 107.36; (R1) 107.47; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Current fall from 112.40 is in progress and should target a test on 104.69 low. On the upside, above 107.73 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 108.80 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.77; (P) 141.51; (R1) 142.86; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in range of 137.66/142.45 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 137.66 will resume the decline from 151.93, to 133.07 fibonacci level, as a correction to the larger up trend. Nevertheless, firm break of 142.45 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 143.34) and above.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 130.28).

USD/JPY extended the consolidation from 114.69 last week and initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 113.24 will bring deeper pull back, but downside should be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 114.69 will resume the larger up trend to 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.01; (P) 109.42; (R1) 109.74; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation above 108.59 temporary and intraday bias remains neutral at this moment. Upside of recovery should be limited below 110.94 resistance and bring fall resumption. Break of 108.59 will target a test on 108.12 low. Whole corrective decline from 118.65 is possibly resuming and break of 108.12 will target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, firm break of 110.94 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.34; (P) 110.74; (R1) 110.97; More…

Break of 110.55 minor support argues that rebound from 108.10 might be finished at 111.13 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 109.36. Break will confirm that corrective pattern from 111.39 has started the third leg. And USD/JPY should target 108.10, and possibly below. In that case, we’d expect downside to be contained by 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20. On the upside, above 111.13 will bring retest of 111.39.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.