Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.66; (P) 111.85; (R1) 112.04; More…

Outlook is USD/JPY remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral first. Focus remains on 112.13 key resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rise from 104.69 for 100 % projection of 109.71 to 111.82 and 110.84 at 112.95 first. On the downside, firm break of 111.69 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 110.84 support. Break will bring deeper fall back to 109.71 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.83; (P) 107.13; (R1) 107.31; More...

USD/JPY dips notably today but stays above 106.57 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further decline is expected as long as 107.64 resistance holds. Break of 106.57 will target 105.98 support and below. In that case, But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 107.64 will turn bias back to the upside for 109.85 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Break of 105.98 support could extend the down trend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.17; (P) 107.34; (R1) 107.53; More…

At this point, USD/JPY is still held below 107.77 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Break of 107.77 will target 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 which is close to 108.12. This level is crucial in determining the medium outlook. On the downside, break of 106.64, however, will indicate the rebound from 104.62 has completed. And in that case, bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 104.62.

In the bigger picture, as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds, the medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) should still continue lower, at least to retest 98.97 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 108.12 will be an early sign of medium term reversal. In that case, further rise would be seen to 114.73 resistance to confirm completion of the fall from 118.65.

USD/JPY’s rise form 102.58 accelerated to as high as 108.68 last week. There is no sign of topping yet. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for long term channel resistance at 110.02 next. On the downside, below 107.81 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But further rally is expected as long as 106.21 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.02). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend form 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.84; (P) 110.20; (R1) 110.62; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range above 109.76 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral first. At this point, we’d still expect strong support around 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 111.42 will turn bias back to the the upside for retesting 113.17 first. However, sustained break of 109.90 will put 109.36 key support level in focus. Break of 109.36 will carry larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 123.74; (P) 124.21; (R1) 124.75; More…

Focus is now on 125.09 resistance in USD/JPY. Firm break there will resume larger up trend from 102.58. Further break of 125.85 long term resistance will pave the way to 130.04 long term projection level. Consolidation from 125.09 could still extend with another falling leg. But overall outlook will remain bullish as long as 121.17 support holds.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) is in progress for retesting 125.85 (2015 high). Sustained break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. This will now remain the favored case as long as 116.34 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.07; (P) 136.97; (R1) 137.64; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range below 138.16 temporary top and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 138.16 will resume the rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 140.15). On the downside, however, firm break of 133.61 support and 133.07 medium term fibonacci level will confirm resumption of whole fall from 151.93.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 medium term could be just a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07 and 55 week EMA (now at 131.85) will set the range for such corrective pattern. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.36; (P) 107.61; (R1) 107.86; More…

USD/JPY’s rally continues to as high as 108.56 so far with upside acceleration seen in 4 hour MACD. Current developments suggests that medium term trend is possibly reversing. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 110.86 next. On the downside, below 107.77 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, break of 108.12 support turned resistance now suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. And, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus is back on 114.73 resistance and break there will pave the way to 118.65 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as USD/JPY stays above 55 day EMA (now at 107.41).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.96; (P) 107.29; (R1) 107.60; More...

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 106.91 will resume the decline from 111.71 to 100% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58. On the upside, break of 109.38 will suggest that fall from 111.71 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 111.71/112.22 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.29; (P) 104.78; (R1) 105.05; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral with focus on 104.39 resistance turned support. Decisive break there will indicate that rebound from 102.58 has completed at 105.76. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 103.31 support first. Though, rebound from current level, followed by break of 105.76 will target 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 106.06.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.90) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.31).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.07; (P) 128.25; (R1) 129.04; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Current fall from 1.151.93 in progress for 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 133.61 from 138.16 at 126.83. Break there will target 121.43 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 129.3 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 134.76 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 55 week EMA (now at 131.59) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong support could be seen around 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 to bring rebound. But break of 134.76 resistance is needed to indicate bottoming first. Otherwise further fall will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.12; (P) 107.50; (R1) 107.97; More...

USD/JPY’s break of 107.64 resistance suggest short term bottoming at 106.07, and completion of fall from 109.85. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for retesting 109.85 first. Break will argue that larger rebound from 101.18 might be resuming to 112.22 key resistance. On the downside, below 106.79 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn bias back to the downside for 106.07 instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.41; (P) 109.66; (R1) 109.95; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the downside for 108.12/26 support zone. Decisive break there will resume the whole corrective decline from 118.65. In that case, USD/JPY will target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. In any case, outlook will remain cautiously bearish as long as 110.94 resistance holds. Nonetheless, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 110.94 will indicate near term reversal and bring stronger rebound back towards 114.49 resistance.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.06; (P) 104.26; (R1) 104.45; More..

USD/JPY’s break of 104.39 resistance suggests resumption rise from 102.58 short term bottom. More importantly, current development argues that whole down trend from 111.71 has completed, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 106.06. On the downside, however, break of 103.92 minor support will dampen this bullish view and turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 105.67 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.46; (P) 149.10; (R1) 150.19; More…

USD/JPY retreated after hitting 55 4H EMA (now at 149.62) holds. Intraday bias is turned neutral first, and further decline is expected. Break of 147.14 will resume the fall from 151.89 and target medium term channel support at 146.00 next. Nevertheless, sustained break of 55 4H EMA will revive near term bullishness, and target a retest on 151.89/93 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 (2023 low) is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Decisive break of 145.06 resistance turned support will confirm that this second leg has completed, after rejection by 151.93. Deeper fall would be seen through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. Nevertheless strong bounce from 145.06 will retain medium term bullishness for another test on 151.93 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.95; (P) 108.30; (R1) 108.81; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. Intraday bias remains mildly on the upside with focus on 108.80 resistance. Firm break there will confirm short term bottoming at 106.78. Further rise should then been seen to 110.67 resistance next. On the downside, break of 107.53 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 106.78 low.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.13; (P) 141.67; (R1) 142.54; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral, and further decline is in favor as long as 142.84 minor resistance holds. Break of 140.25 will resume fall from 151.89 and target 136.63 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, break of 142.84 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63, sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). This will now remain the favored as long as 144.94 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.41; (P) 107.68; (R1) 107.99; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and further rise is still in favor. We’re favoring the case that corrective fall from 111.71 has already completed at 105.98. Break of 108.08 will turn bias to the upside for 109.38 resistance. However, break of 106.74 support will dampen our bullish view and turn bias to the downside for 105.98 instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.05; (P) 150.31; (R1) 150.78; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidation from 150.87 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 150.87 will resume the rise from 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. On the other hand, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 149.20 will confirm short term topping at 150.87. Deeper fall would be seen to channel support (now at 148.60) and possibly below, even as a corrective move.

In the bigger picture, rise from 140.25 is seen as resuming the trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Decisive break of 151.89/.93 resistance zone will confirm this bullish case and target 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.50. However, break of 148.79 resistance turned support will delay this bullish case, and extend the corrective pattern from 151.89 with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.12; (P) 111.64; (R1) 112.53; More…

USD/JPY surges to as high as 112.37 so far today. The strong break of 111.39 resistance confirms resumption of whole rally from 104.62 low. More importantly, it adds much credence to the case of medium term reversal. Intraday bias is now on the on the upside for 61.8% projection of 104.62 to 111.39 from 109.36 at 113.54 first. Break will put focus on 114.73 key resistance for confirming the bullish case. On the downside, touching 111.34 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 110.34 support holds.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 affirms this view and should target 114.73 for confirmation. Firm break of 114.73 will likely send USD/JPY through 118.65 towards 125.85 key resistance (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.