Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.34; (P) 141.85; (R1) 142.41; More…

Further rise in favor in USD/JPY as long as 141.20 minor support holds. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 142.48 would extend the rise from 127.20 towards 151.93 high. However, break of 141.20 minor support will be the first sign of rejection by 142.48, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 137.77).

In the bigger picture, rise from 151.93 are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58. The first leg has completed at 127.20. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg, and should be limited below 151.93. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 137.47) will argue that the third leg has started back to 127.20 and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.82; (P) 104.06; (R1) 104.28; More..

USD/JPY’s breach of 103.65 support suggests resumption of fall from 105.67. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 103.17 first. Break there will resume whole decline from 111.71 towards 101.18 low. For now, break of 104.57 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.89; (P) 106.29; (R1) 106.98; More...

USD/JPY is still holding in range of 105.10/107.05 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case of near term reversal and bring stronger rally. On the downside, break of 105.10 will target a test on 104.18. Break there will resume whole decline from 111.71.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

USD/JPY’s down trend momentum diminished ahead of 103.17 last week but further fall will remain in favor as long as 104.56 minor resistance holds. The pair is staying well inside falling channel, and below 55 day EMA, keeping near term outlook bearish. Break of 103.17 low will resume whole down trend form 111.71. On the upside, however, break of 104.56 will turn bias back to the upside for 105.67 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.16; (P) 109.37; (R1) 109.73; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Decisive break of 109.72 resistance will resume whole rise from 104.45 to channel resistance (now at 111.46). On the downside, below 109.00 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But overall outlook will remain bullish as long as 38.2% retracement of 104.45 to 109.72 at 107.70 holds.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Recovery from 104.45 also failed to sustain above 55 week EMA (now at 109.02). Overall outlook remains bearish and fall from 118.65 is in favor to extend through 104.45 low. This will now stay as the favored case as long as 109.72 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.59; (P) 108.95; (R1) 109.15; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. With 108.34 minor support intact, further rise is mildly in favor. Break of 109.77 will resume the rebound from 107.47 to retest 110.95 high. On the downside, break of 108.34 will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support and below instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. We’d monitor the structure of the fall from 110.95, to assess whether it’s just correction to rise from 102.58 to 110.95, or a leg of a range pattern between 101.18 and 111.71, or starting another leg of the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.87; (P) 135.69; (R1) 137.33; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside as rise from 127.20 is in progress. Immediate focus is on 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64. Rejection by this fibonacci level, followed by break of 134.04 support, will argue that such rebound from 127.20 has completed, and turn bias back to the downside. However, sustained trading above 136.64 will indicate that fall from 151.93 has completed, and bring further rally to 61.8% retracement at 142.48.

In the bigger picture, focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64. Sustained break there will indicate that price actions from 151.93 medium term are merely a corrective pattern. Such development will maintain long term bullishness. Rejection by 136.64 will, on the downside, extend the fall from 151.93 to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.36; (P) 160.82; (R1) 161.37; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the upside with break of 161.27 temporary top. Current up trend should target 61.8% projection of 146.47 to 160.20 from 154.53 at 163.01. On the downside, below 160.25 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is still in progress. Further rise is expected as long as 154.53 support holds. Next target is 100% projection of 127.20 (2023 low) to 151.89 (2023 high) from 140.25 at 164.94.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.88; (P) 110.10; (R1) 110.51; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound from 108.71 to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.03; (P) 143.45; (R1) 144.14; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside and current rally from 127.20 should target 161.8% projection of 127.20 to 137.90 from 129.62 at 146.93. On the downside, below 142.66 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally will now remain in favor as long as 137.90 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is currently seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Further rally is expected as long as 137.90 resistance turned support holds, to retest 151.93. But strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside. Break of 137.90 will indicate the the third leg has started back towards 127.20.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.86; (P) 153.54; (R1) 154.43; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the downside with breach of 151.93 temporary low. decisive break of 151.89 resistance turned support will argue that large scale correction is underway to 148.66 fibonacci level. On the upside, break of 155.21 resistance will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, considering the depth and momentum of the current decline, 161.94 should be a medium term top already. Fall from there is seen as correcting the whole rise from 127.20 (2023 low) at least. Break of 151.89 will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 161.94 at 148.66. Risk will now stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 157.06) holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.23; (P) 110.41; (R1) 110.73; More…

Break of 110.00 minor support suggests that USD/JPY’s recovery from 109.05 has completed at 110.58. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 109.05 support first. Break there will resume the fall from 111.65 to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18. On the upside, above 110.58 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 111.65 resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. For now, outlook won’t turn bullish as long as 111.71 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.12; (P) 115.50; (R1) 116.76; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside as decline from 118.65 continues, target 55 day EMA (now at 113.10) and below. At this point, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Above 116.86 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 118.65 high. However, sustained break of 111.13 will argue that whole rise from 98.97 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 106.48 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.28; (P) 108.43; (R1) 108.72; More…

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged as consolidation from 107.81 is extending. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Upside should be limited by 109.02 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63 will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support. However, break of 109.02 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.62; (P) 105.92; (R1) 106.09; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral first. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case of near term reversal and bring stronger rally. On the downside, break of 105.10 will target a test on 104.18. Break there will resume whole decline from 111.71.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.29; (P) 108.54; (R1) 108.99; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. The support from 55 day EMA revived some near term bullishness. Further rise would be seen to 109.95 resistance first. Break there will bring retest of 110.95 high. On the downside, break of 108.19 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support, and then 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77.

In the bigger picture, rise from 102.58 might have completed at 110.95, as the third leg of the pattern from 101.18 low. Medium term outlook is neutral first, as the pair could have turned into sideway trading between 101.18/111.71. We’d look at the structure and momentum of the fall from 110.95 to gauge the chance of upside breakout at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.14; (P) 110.91; (R1) 111.49; More..

At this point, further fall is expected with 111.04 minor resistance intact. Decline from 112.22 would target 108.30 support. Decisive break there will indicate completion of whole rise from 104.45 and turn outlook bearish. On the upside, above 111.04 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for 112.22/40 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that corrective fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) might have completed with three waves down to 104.45 already. Focus is back of 114.54 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm this case and bring resumption of whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) towards 125.85 (2015 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 108.30 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.61; (P) 148.85; (R1) 149.27; More…

USD/JPY continues to lose upside momentum but there is no sign of topping. Further rise is in favor to 61.8% projection of 130.38 to 140.33 from 145.89 at 149.91. Yet, beware that Japan might intervene again close to 150 psychological level. On the downside, break of 146.43 minor support will indicate short term topping and bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is not clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 139.37 resistance turned support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.32; (P) 110.56; (R1) 110.90; More…

Focus is back on 110.95 high as choppy rise from 107.47 resumed. Decisive break there will resume larger rise from 102.58 for 111.71 key resistance. On the downside, break of 109.70 support will extend the consolidation pattern from 110.95 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. On the upside, decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 107.47 support would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.48; (P) 153.40; (R1) 154.86; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for consolidations above 151.93 temporary low. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 155.36 support turned resistance holds. Decisive break of 151.89 resistance turned support will argue that large scale correction is underway to 148.66 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, break of 155.36 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, considering the depth and momentum of the current decline, 161.94 should be a medium term top already. Fall from there is seen as correcting the whole rise from 127.20 (2023 low) at least. Break of 151.89 will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 161.94 at 148.66. Risk will now stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 157.25) holds, in case of rebound.