Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.86; (P) 140.66; (R1) 141.16; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the downside with focus on 137.90 resistance turned support. Decisive break there will confirm the larger bearish case, and target 127.20 and below. On the upside, above 139.74 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, current downside acceleration, as seen in daily MACD, argues that fall from 145.06 is already the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Sustained break of 137.90 resistance turned support should confirm this case and target 127.20 (2023 low) and below. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 145.06 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.79; (P) 141.52; (R1) 141.94; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. With 142.45 minor resistance intact, further decline is in favor. Break of 139.63 minor support will bring retest of 137.66 low first. Break there will resume the decline from 151.93, to 133.07 fibonacci level, as a correction to the larger up trend. Nevertheless, firm break of 142.45 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 143.32) and above.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 130.28).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.92; (P) 147.87; (R1) 148.43; More…

USD/JPY’s decline continues today and break of 147.14 support confirms resumption of whole fall from 151.89. Intraday bias stays on the downside at this point. Sustained break of 61.8% projection of 151.89 to 147.14 from 149.66 at 146.72 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.91, which is close to 145.06 key resistance turned support. On the upside, above 147.70 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 149.66 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 (2023 low) is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Decisive break of 145.06 resistance turned support will confirm that this second leg has completed, after rejection by 151.93. Deeper fall would be seen through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. Nevertheless strong bounce from 145.06 will retain medium term bullishness for another test on 151.93 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.38; (P) 108.62; (R1) 108.84; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. With 108.33 minor support intact, the consolidation should be relatively brief. On the upside, break of 109.35 will resume the larger rise from 102.58 long term channel resistance at 110.02 next. However, on the downside, break of 108.33 will indicate short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for correction.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.02). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.51; (P) 148.05; (R1) 148.94; More…

USD/JPY’s recovery from 147.14 extends higher, but risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 149.68 holds. Below 147.14 will target medium term channel support at 146.00 next. Nevertheless, sustained break of 55 4H EMA will revive near term bullishness, and target a retest on 151.89/93 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 (2023 low) is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Decisive break of 145.06 resistance turned support will confirm that this second leg has completed, after rejection by 151.93. Deeper fall would be seen through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. Nevertheless strong bounce from 145.06 will retain medium term bullishness for another test on 151.93 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.41; (P) 143.68; (R1) 145.12; More…

Outlook in USD/JPY is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Upside of current recovery should be limited below 156.48 resistance to bring another decline. Firm break of 140.94 will resume the whole fall from 151.89. Next target will be next fibonacci level at 136.63.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63, sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). This will now remain the favored as long as 146.58 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.20; (P) 110.62; (R1) 110.94; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. The corrective decline from 113.17 might extend lower. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 111.42 will target 112.14 minor resistance first. Break will argue that larger rally is possibly resuming for above 113.17.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.63; (P) 138.40; (R1) 139.55; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for consolidation above 137.22. Upside of recovery should be limited by 55 4H EMA (now at 140.56) and bring another decline. Break of 137.22 and sustained trading below 137.90 resistance turned support will confirm the larger bearish case, and target 127.20 and below.

In the bigger picture, fall from 145.06 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Sustained break of 137.90 resistance turned support should confirm this case and target 127.20 (2023 low) and below. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 145.06 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

USD/JPY edged higher to 136.99 last week but failed to sustain above 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81 and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour and daily MACD, a correction could be imminent. On the downside, break of 134.25 support will confirm short term topping at 136.99. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 131.34 support resistance turned support. Nevertheless, firm break of 136.99 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

In the long term picture, the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) has just resumed. Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.69; (P) 109.21; (R1) 109.49; More..

USD/JPY retreated sharply after forming a temporary top at 109.72. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations first. Outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 108.27 support holds. On the upside, break of 109.72 will resume whole rally from 104.45 to 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. Break will target long term channel resistance at 111.78 next. However, firm break of 108.27 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 106.48 support first.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.98; (P) 135.92; (R1) 137.70; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 137.66 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, ahead of 133.07 medium term fibonacci level. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 142.24 resistance first. However, before, another decline could still be seen to 133.07 medium term fibonacci level or further to 55 week EMA.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 131.33). Some support should be seen around this zone to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.79; (P) 109.16; (R1) 109.42; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 109.53 temporary top. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 107.77 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Break of 109.53 will resume the rise from 104.62 and target 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 110.86 next.

In the bigger picture, break of 108.12 support turned resistance now suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. And, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus is back on 114.73 resistance and break there will pave the way to 118.65 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as USD/JPY stays above 55 day EMA (now at 107.60).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.43; (P) 113.03; (R1) 113.39; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, sustained break of 112.71 structural support will argue that fall from 115.51 is already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper decline would then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57. On the upside, break of 113.94 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 115.51 high instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.22; (P) 144.47; (R1) 144.72; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 55 4H EMA (now at 143.85) could trigger deeper correction. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 140.90 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 145.06 will resume larger rise to 161.8% projection of 127.20 to 137.90 from 129.62 at 146.93.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is currently seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Further rally is expected as long as 138.75 support holds, to retest 151.93. But strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside. Break of 138.75 will indicate the the third leg has started back towards 127.20.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 159.33; (P) 159.55; (R1) 159.90; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the upside as recent rally resumed through 159.92 temporary top after brief consolidations. Decisive break of 100% projection of 151.86 to 157.70 from 154.53 at 160.37 will confirm long term up trend resumption, and pave the way to 161.8% projection at 163.97. On the downside, below 159.18 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral against first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 157.70 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, there is no sign of long term trend reversal yet. Further rally is expected as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds. Decisive break of 160.02 will target 100% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 164.94.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.07; (P) 114.38; (R1) 114.99; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 115.05 resistance suggests that pull back from 116.34 has already completed. The development also revives near term bullishness. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 116.34 high first. Firm break there will resume larger up trend for 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, below 114.46 minor support will mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 110.91) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.04; (P) 130.14; (R1) 131.95; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 121.27 to 129.39 from 126.91 at 131.92. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 135.03. On the downside, break of 126.91 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% project at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.20; (P) 105.75; (R1) 106.25; More…

USD/JPY recovers today but stays well below 106.37 minor resistance. Intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment. As noted before, down trend from 118.65 has just resumed and should target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. Firm break there will pave the way to 98.97 key support level and below. On the upside, above 106.37 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 107.67 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.68; (P) 148.83; (R1) 149.55; More…

USD/JPY’s fall from 151.89 is still in progress. Intraday bias stays on the downside for medium term channel support at 146.00 next. On the upside, above 148.67 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 151.89 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 (2023 low) is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Decisive break of 145.06 resistance turned support will confirm that this second leg has completed, after rejection by 151.93. Deeper fall would be seen through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. Nevertheless strong bounce from 145.06 will retain medium term bullishness for another test on 151.93 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.14; (P) 110.91; (R1) 111.49; More..

USD/JPY drops sharply to as low as 110.33 but recovered ahead of 110.28 resistance turned support. Intraday bias remains neutral and another rise is still mildly in favor. Firm break of 112.40 resistance will affirm medium term bullishness and target 114.54 key resistance next. However, sustained break of 110.28 would raise the chance that whole rise from 104.45 has completed. Deeper fall would be seen back to 108.30 support first.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that corrective fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) might have completed with three waves down to 104.45 already. Focus is back of 114.54 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm this case and bring resumption of whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) towards 125.85 (2015 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 108.30 support holds.