Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.56; (P) 114.05; (R1) 114.51; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 114.96 will resume larger up trend from 102.58. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next. On the downside, below 113.57 minor support will bring another fall to 112.71 support instead.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 111.65 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.61; (P) 106.84; (R1) 107.29; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with the current rebound. Another fall could still be seen as long as 107.64 minor resistance holds. Break of 106.07 will extend the corrective pattern from 111.71. But in this case, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, firm break of 107.64 should suggest completion of the fall from 109.85. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for this resistance.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Break of 105.98 support could extend the down trend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.49; (P) 139.04; (R1) 139.71; More…

Immediate focus is now on 137.66 support in USD/JPY. Firm break there will resume the decline from 151.93, as a correction to larger up trend, to 100% projection of 146.78 to 137.66 from 142.24 at 133.12, which is close to 133.07 medium term fibonacci level. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 142.24 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 131.22).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.64; (P) 144.89; (R1) 145.39; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further rally is expected as long as 139.37 resistance turned support holds. Break of 145.89 will target 147.68 long term resistance. On the downside, however, decisive break of 139.37 will confirm short term topping. Deeper decline would be seen back towards 130.38 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.27; (P) 110.57; (R1) 110.06; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Current rally from 104.62 is in progress for trend line resistance at 112.43. On the downside, below 110.45 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 109.14 support holds.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Rise from 104.62 is possibly resuming the up trend from 98.97 (2016 low). This will be the preferred case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 108.30) holds. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will confirm our view and target 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.36; (P) 147.11; (R1) 148.23; More…

USD/JPY rebounds notably today but stays below 149.69 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Another fall could be seen, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 130.38 to 151.93 at 143.69 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 149.69 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound back towards 151.93 high. But upside should be limited there to continue the corrective pattern.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is no clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 140.33 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.64; (P) 106.94; (R1) 107.16; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for 106.07 support. Firm break there will extend the corrective pattern from 111.71 to 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20. On the upside, break of 107.54 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the decline. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.01; (P) 104.11; (R1) 104.26; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. We’re holding on to the view that larger decline from 111.71 is still in progress. Break of 103.65 should turn bias back to the downside for 103.17 low and below. This bearish case will remain favored as long as 105.67 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.31; (P) 151.61; (R1) 152.02; More…

While USD/JPY dips notably, it’s holding well above 149.17 support. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point, and another rally is in favor. On the upside, decisive break of 151.93 resistance will confirm resumption of long term up trend. Next target will be 157.69 projection level. However, firm break of 149.17 will be a sign of bearish reversal and bring deeper fall to 147.28 support first.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is now on 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will argue that rise from 127.20 has completed, and turn outlook bearish for 137.22 support and below. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2021 low) to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69.

USD/JPY extended the consolidation from 114.69 last week and initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 113.24 will bring deeper pull back, but downside should be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 114.69 will resume the larger up trend to 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.79; (P) 130.04; (R1) 130.38; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Also, near term outlook stays bullish with 126.91 support intact and further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 131.24 will resume recent up trend to 261.8% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 133.26. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 126.91 will confirm short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for 121.27/125.09 support zone.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.82; (P) 111.16; (R1) 111.40; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as consolidation from 112.07 is is progress. Downside of retreat should be contained by 110.44 support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 112.07 will extend larger rise to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 114.71 next. However, break of 110.44 will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 109.11 support.

In the bigger picture, break of 111.71 resistance suggests that the whole corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed at 101.18 (2020 low) already. Medium term bullishness is also affirmed as USD/JPY stays well above 55 week EMA (now at 108.60). Sustained trading above 111.71 will affirm this bullish case. Rise from 101.18 could then be resuming whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) through 118.65. This will now be the preferred case as long as 108.71 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.68; (P) 147.03; (R1) 147.51; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 146.22 is extending. Further decline is expected as long as 148.50 resistance holds, even in case of stronger recovery. On the downside, firm break of 146.22 will resume the fall from 151.89 to 145.06 key support level.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 (2023 low) is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Decisive break of 145.06 resistance turned support will confirm that this second leg has completed, after rejection by 151.93. Deeper fall would be seen through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. Nevertheless strong bounce from 145.06 will retain medium term bullishness for another test on 151.93 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.20; (P) 110.62; (R1) 110.94; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. The corrective decline from 113.17 might extend lower. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 111.42 will target 112.14 minor resistance first. Break will argue that larger rally is possibly resuming for above 113.17.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.63; (P) 138.40; (R1) 139.55; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for consolidation above 137.22. Upside of recovery should be limited by 55 4H EMA (now at 140.56) and bring another decline. Break of 137.22 and sustained trading below 137.90 resistance turned support will confirm the larger bearish case, and target 127.20 and below.

In the bigger picture, fall from 145.06 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Sustained break of 137.90 resistance turned support should confirm this case and target 127.20 (2023 low) and below. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 145.06 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

USD/JPY edged higher to 136.99 last week but failed to sustain above 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81 and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour and daily MACD, a correction could be imminent. On the downside, break of 134.25 support will confirm short term topping at 136.99. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 131.34 support resistance turned support. Nevertheless, firm break of 136.99 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

In the long term picture, the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) has just resumed. Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.69; (P) 109.21; (R1) 109.49; More..

USD/JPY retreated sharply after forming a temporary top at 109.72. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations first. Outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 108.27 support holds. On the upside, break of 109.72 will resume whole rally from 104.45 to 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. Break will target long term channel resistance at 111.78 next. However, firm break of 108.27 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 106.48 support first.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.14; (P) 104.62; (R1) 106.15; More..

USD/JPY’s corrective rise from from 101.18 is still in progress. It could extend to 61.8% retracement of 112.22 to 101.18 at 108.00 before completion. On the downside, break of 103.07 minor support will suggest the recovery is completed and turn bias to the downside for retesting 101.18 support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress. It’s seen as part of a larger consolidative pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). Such decline could could extend through 98.97 (2016 low). For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 112.22 resistance holds, even in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.35; (P) 103.54; (R1) 103.81; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as consolidation from 102.87 is extending. Outlook remains bearish as it’s staying well inside falling channel from 111.71. Break of 102.87 will bring deeper fall to retest 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 104.57 resistance is needed to be the first sign of bullish reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong recovery.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.19; (P) 149.45; (R1) 149.70; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as this point. Risk stays on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 149.55) holds. Break of 148.57 minor support will turn bias to the downside the resume the fall from 151.89 through 147.14 support. However sustained break of 55 4H EMA will revive near term bullishness, and target a retest on 151.89/93 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 (2023 low) is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Decisive break of 145.06 resistance turned support will confirm that this second leg has completed, after rejection by 151.93. Deeper fall would be seen through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. Nevertheless strong bounce from 145.06 will retain medium term bullishness for another test on 151.93 at a later stage.