Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.63; (P) 108.90; (R1) 109.31; More..

USD/JPY’s break of 109.22 temporary top suggests resumption of rally from 102.58. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rise should target long term channel resistance at 110.02 next. Decisive break there will carry larger implications. On the downside, though, break of 108.33 support will now indicate short term topping, and bring deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.02). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.56; (P) 114.05; (R1) 114.51; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 114.96 will resume larger up trend from 102.58. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next. On the downside, below 113.57 minor support will bring another fall to 112.71 support instead.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 111.65 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.81; (P) 150.23; (R1) 150.63; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point and more consolidations would be seen below 150.78. Downside of retreat should be contained by 148.79 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Above 150.87 will resume the rise from 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will confirm larger up trend resumption of 155.50 projection level next. However, firm break of 148.79 will turn bias to the downside for 145.88 support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as a correction to the rally from 127.20, which might have completed at 140.25 already. Firm break of 151.89/93 resistance zone will confirm up trend resumption, and next target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.50. This will now remain the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 118.25; (P) 118.69; (R1) 119.19; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Current rally should target 100% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 121.63. On the downside, break of 117.68 support is now needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Sustained break of 118.65 (2016 high) will pave the way to 125.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 113.46 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.31; (P) 106.92; (R1) 107.27; More…

USD/JPY continues to stay in tight range and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 108.27 will be the first sign of near term reversal and will target 110.47 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 106.37 minor support will bring retest of 105.54 low. Break of 105.54 will extend the larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.16; (P) 136.63; (R1) 137.23; More…

Focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 in USD/JPY. Sustained break there will indicate that fall from 151.93 has completed, and bring further rally to 61.8% retracement at 142.48. Nevertheless, rejection by this fibonacci level, followed by break of 135.24 support, will argue that rebound from 127.20 has completed, and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64. Sustained break there will indicate that price actions from 151.93 medium term are merely a corrective pattern. Such development will maintain long term bullishness. Rejection by 136.64 will, on the other hand, extend the fall from 151.93 to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.12; (P) 109.58; (R1) 109.84; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, above 110.44 will turn bias back to the upside for 110.79, and then 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.10 will argue that larger fall from 111.65 is resuming. Deeper decline should then be seen to 108.71 support first, and then 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.91; (P) 150.34; (R1) 150.85; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with break of 149.84 minor support. Some consolidations would be seen first. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 147.28 support holds, even in case of deep retreat. On the upside, above 150.76 will resume larger rally to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.27; (P) 104.57; (R1) 104.87; More...

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation above 104.00 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. Further fall is expected as long as 105.20 support turned resistance holds. Below 104.00 will resume larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 109.85 to 104.18 from 106.94 at 103.43 next. Nevertheless, firm break of 105.20 will bring stronger rebound to 106.94 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.51; (P) 107.73; (R1) 107.93; More...

USD/JPY continues to trade in tight range above 106.91 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 106.91 will extend the decline from 111.71 to 100% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58. On the upside, break of 109.38 will suggest that fall from 111.71 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 111.71/112.22 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

USD/JPY’s rally from 127.20 continued last week and hit as high as 143.86. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 161.8% projection of 127.20 to 137.90 from 129.62 at 146.93. On the downside, below 142.66 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally will now remain in favor as long as 137.90 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is currently seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Further rally is expected as long as 137.90 resistance turned support holds, to retest 151.93. But strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside. Break of 137.90 will indicate the the third leg has started back towards 127.20.

In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.64; (P) 113.88; (R1) 114.28; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside as rise from 111.37 is in progress for 114.54 resistance. At this point, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another fall to extend the consolidation pattern from 114.54. On the downside, break of 112.94 minor support will argue that the rebound has completed. And, in that case, the corrective pattern from 114.54 could have started the third leg for 111.37 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.82; (P) 108.14; (R1) 108.38; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside as fall from 112.40 is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support zone. On the upside, break of 109.02 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying indicate long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

USD/JPY stayed in range of 109.10/110.79 last week and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound from 108.71 to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.75; (P) 109.93; (R1) 110.02; More..

USD/JPY’s break of 109.76 minor support confirms short term topping at 110.28, after hitting channel resistance. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 109.14). Break will put focus on 107.65 key support. On the upside, break of 110.28 will resume whole rebound from 104.45 instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). There is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Hence, rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

USD/JPY’s rally from 104.69 accelerated to as high as 112.07 last week. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Current rally should target 114.54 resistance next. On the downside, below 111.50 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 110.35 support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, current strong rebound from 104.69 argues that decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.69, after failing 104.62. More importantly, the rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus now turns back to 114.54 resistance, decisive break there will add more credence to this bullish case and target 118.65. This will now be the favored case as long as 110.35 support holds.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.56; (P) 110.90; (R1) 111.43; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 111.73 minor resistance will resume the rebound from 109.76 to retest 113.17 high. Break there will resume larger rise from 104.62. On the downside, below 110.37 will bring deeper fall. But still, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.82; (P) 123.078; (R1) 124.14; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and further rise is still in favor with 121.17 minor support intact. On the upside, above 125.09 will target 161.8% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 126.09, which is close to 125.85 long term resistance. However, break of 121.17 will indicate short term topping, and bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) in in progress for retesting 125.85 (2015 high). Sustained break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. This will now remain the favored case as long as 116.34 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.20; (P) 108.74; (R1) 109.15; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias stays mildly on the downside for 107.47 support first. Break there will resume whole decline from 110.95 for 100% projection of 110.95 to 107.47 from 109.68 at 106.20 next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 109.68 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. We’d monitor the structure of the fall from 110.95, to assess whether it’s just correction to rise from 102.58 to 110.95, or a leg of a range pattern between 101.18 and 111.71, or starting another leg of the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.52; (P) 104.73; (R1) 104.91; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first and another fall is mildly in favor as long as 105.03 minor resistance holds. Below 104.34 will target 104.00 low first. Break will resume larger decline from 111.71. Nevertheless, sustained break of 105.03 support turned resistance will neutralize immediate near term bearishness. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 106.10 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.