Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.39; (P) 136.96; (R1) 137.44; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current up trend should target 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29. On the downside, below 137.74 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.54; (P) 114.77; (R1) 115.20; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point and outlook is unchanged. Overall, corrective pattern from 116.34 is extending. Below 114.14 will target 113.46 and possibly further to 112.52 support. On the upside, above 115.68 will bring retest of 116.34 high.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.07) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.26; (P) 104.57; (R1) 104.76; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for 104.00 low. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 111.71, towards 101.18 key support. On the upside, break of 105.05 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.80; (P) 111.02; (R1) 111.46; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. With 111.53 minor resistance intact, the corrective fall from 113.17 could extend lower. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 111.53 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 113.17 high first.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.37; (P) 112.63; (R1) 112.82; More…

With 113.53 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is expected in USD/JPY for 111.58 low. Consolidation pattern from 111.58 has completed with three waves up to 115.49. And decline from 118.65 is likely resuming. However, we’d tentatively expect strong support from 111.12/13 cluster support to contain downside. This level represents 61.8% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 111.12 and 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. On the upside, above 113.53 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 115.49 resistance. However, sustained break of 111.12/13 will bring deeper decline to 100% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 108.42.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Nonetheless, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.19) will extend the consolidation from 125.85 with another fall through 98.97 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.21; (P) 109.79; (R1) 110.13; More…

USD/JPY’s fall continues today and breaks 108.72 support. The development argues that whole decline from 118. 65 is resuming. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 108.12 first, and then next medium term fibonacci level at 106.48.On the upside, break of 110.94 is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook remains bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

USD/JPY stayed in consolidation below 151.93 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Another fall could be seen, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 130.38 to 151.93 at 143.69 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 149.69 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound back towards 151.93 high. But upside should be limited there to continue the corrective pattern.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is no clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 140.33 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

In the long term picture, rise from 101.18 is seen as part of the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained break of 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 168.47. This will remain the favored case as long as 130.38 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.97; (P) 110.26; (R1) 110.53; More..

With 111.46 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is still expected in USD/JPY for 109.76 key support. Firm break there will confirm bearish reversal. Further fall should then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 108.40 and below. Nevertheless, break of 111.46 resistance will revive near term bluishness and turn bias back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 112.63) first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Break of 109.76 support will start another medium term down leg to 98.97/104.62 support zone. On the upside, break of 114.73 resistance will likely extend the rise from 98.97 through 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.53; (P) 111.57; (R1) 112.33; More..

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. Price actions from 114.54 are viewed as a consolidation pattern. We’d continue to expect downside to be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 111.84 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for rebound to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 112.46). However, firm break of 110.75 will dampen our view and target 61.8% retracement at 108.40.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.20; (P) 134.05; (R1) 135.06; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first as it’s staying above 132.27 temporary low. Fall from 137.90 could still extend lower and break of 132.27 will target 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 137.90 at 131.28. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 127.20 low. Break of 137.90 resistance is needed to confirm resumption of the rally from 127.20, or risk will stay mildly on the downside.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 127.20 should have completed at 137.90 as a corrective move, with strong break of 55 day EMA. The down trend from 151.93 (2022 high) is not over yet. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.51; (P) 103.85; (R1) 104.14; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment, and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, sustained break of the channel resistance will argue that the down trend from 111.71 has finally completed. Stronger rise would be seen to 105.67 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 103.51 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 102.58 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 105.67 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.92; (P) 110.18; (R1) 110.60; More…

USD/JPY’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside for 111.71/112.22 resistance. Firm break there will solidify medium term bullishness. On the downside, below 110.17 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 108.40 support holds, in case of pull back.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the corrective down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed at 101.18. Firm break of 112.22 resistance should confirms this bullish case. A medium term up trend could then has started for 100% projection of 101.18 to 111.71 from 102.58 at 113.11 and then 161.8% projection at 119.61. Rejection by 111.71, however, will keep medium term outlook neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.84; (P) 110.09; (R1) 110.49; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 110.58 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm that correction from 111.65 has completed with three waves down to 108.71. Stronger rise would then be seen to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, though, below 109.39 minor support will bring retest of 108.71 support instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.93; (P) 149.13; (R1) 149.35; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Firm break of 150.87/89 resistance will confirm larger up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03. On the downside, below 148.90 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will now remain bullish as long as 146.47 support holds.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Also, this will remain the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds, in case of another fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.51; (P) 107.73; (R1) 107.93; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, break of 106.91 will extend the decline from 111.71 to 100% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58. On the upside, break of 109.38 will suggest that fall from 111.71 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 111.71/112.22 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

USD/JPY’s rebound from 106.07 extended to as high as 108.16 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is neutral this week for some sideway trading. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 106.79 support holds. Break of 108.16 will resume the rebound form 106.07 to 109.85 resistance next. Break will argue that larger rebound from 101.18 might be resuming to 112.22 key resistance. On the downside, below 106.79 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn bias back to the downside for 106.07 instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.00; (P) 110.29; (R1) 110.67; More….

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as the recovery from 109.91 is still in progress. Overall near term outlook remains bearish as long as 112.18 resistance holds and another fall is expected. Below 109.91 will target 108.81 support first. Break there will resume whole correction from 118.65 and target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 112.18 resistance will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.49 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.91; (P) 109.17; (R1) 109.34; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation form 109.68 is extending. With 108.70 minor support intact, further rise is in favor. On the upside, break of 109.68 will resume the rebound from 107.47 for retesting 110.95 high. On the downside, though, break of 108.70 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support again, to extend the pattern from 110.95.

In the bigger picture, rise from 102.58 might have completed at 110.95. But strong support from 55 day EMA retains near term bullishness for the pair. Break of 110.95 resistance will carry larger bullish implications and target 112.22 resistance next. Though, break of 107.47 support will shift favor to the case of long term sideway trading between 101.18/111.71.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.88; (P) 131.44; (R1) 132.46; More…

USD/JPY’s strong break of 131.34 resistance confirms up trend resumption. Intraday bias remains on the upside. Next target is 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81. On the downside, below 130.97 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral to bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

USD/JPY’s rally resumed last week and edged higher to 151.82, but turned sideway since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week for more consolidations. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 150.11) holds. On the upside, decisive break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03. However, sustained trading below 55 4H EMA will bring deeper fall back to 146.47 support instead.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

In the long term picture, as long as 127.20 support holds(2023 low), up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in favor to continue through 151.93 (2022 high).