Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.30; (P) 110.55; (R1) 110.72; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range of 110.27/111.13 and intraday bias remains neutral. We’re holding on to the view that rebound from 108.10 could have completed already. On the downside, break of 110.27 will firm this case and turn bias to the downside for 109.36 support. Break there will confirm that corrective pattern from 111.39 has started the third leg for 108.10 support. In that case, we’d expect downside to be contained by 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20. On the upside, above 111.13 will bring retest of 111.39 instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.17; (P) 112.38; (R1) 112.71; More…

USD/JPY’s rally resumed after brief consolidation and reaches as high as 112.79. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 113.17 resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 104.62 and target 114.73 resistance next. On the downside, below 112.38 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will now stay cautiously bullish as long as 111.82 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.62; (P) 147.01; (R1) 147.80; More…

USD/JPY is extending the consolidation pattern from 151.93 and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper pull back could be seen, but downside is expected to be contained by 38.2% retracement of 130.38 to 151.93 at 143.69 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 149.69 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound back towards 151.93 high. But upside should be limited there to continue the corrective pattern.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is no clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 140.33 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.06; (P) 106.37; (R1) 106.82; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside as rise from 104.18 is in progress. Corrective fall from 111.71 should have completed with three waves down to 104.18, after missing 100% projection of 111.71 to 105.98 from 109.85 at 104.12. Further rise should be seen to 108.16 resistance. Firm break will target 109.85 and above. This will now remain the favored case as long as 105.30 support holds, even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.92; (P) 145.40; (R1) 145.87; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 146.55. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% projection of 129.62 to 145.06 from 137.22 at 146.76 will pave the way to retest 151.93 high. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 143.88 resistance turned support will be a sign of reversal, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 141.92).

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.64; (P) 157.25; (R1) 158.42; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point, as consolidation from 160.20 is extending. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 146.47 to 160.20 at 154.95 to bring recovery. For now, break of 160.20 is not envisaged in the near term. Meanwhile, firm break of 154.95 will turn bias to the downside for deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 152.04).

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 100% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 164.94. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

USD/JPY’s up trend continued last week and hit as high as 144.98. But as a temporary top was formed, initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Downside of retreat should be contained by 139.37 resistance turned support. On the upside, break of 144.98 will resume larger up trend to 147.68 long term resistance. Break there will target 161.8% projection of 126.35 to 139.37 from 130.38 at 151.44 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, rise from 101.18 is seen as part of the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rally is expected to 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is slightly above 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 124.31) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.62; (P) 105.92; (R1) 106.09; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral again as it failed to break sustain above 4 hour 55 EMA and retreated. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case of near term reversal and bring stronger rally. On the downside, break of 105.10 will target a test on 104.18. Break there will resume whole decline from 111.71.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.79; (P) 105.56; (R1) 106.13; More..

USD/JPY dives to as low as 101.54 today and the strong break of 104.45 confirms down trend resumption. Intraday bias stays on the downside for next key support level at 98.97. On the upside, above 104.99 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But recovery should be limited well below 112.22 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress. It’s seen as part of a larger consolidative pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). Such decline could could extend through 98.97 (2016 low). For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 112.22 resistance holds, even in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.15; (P) 142.66; (R1) 143.30; More…

While USD/JPY’s recovery from 140.94 extends higher today, outlook is unchanged. Upside of recovery should be limited well below 146.58 resistance to bring another decline. On the downside, break of 140.94 will resume the fall from 151.89 to next fibonacci level at 136.63.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63, sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). This will now remain the favored as long as 146.58 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.33; (P) 109.50; (R1) 109.82; More…

USD/JPY drew support from 4 hour 55 EMA again and recovered. But it’s staying below 110.02 short term top and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 110.02 at 107.95 to bring rally resumption. On the upside, break of 110.02 will resume the rise from 104.62 to 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 110.86 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Rise from 104.62 is possibly resuming the up trend from 98.97 (2016 low). This will be the preferred case as long as 38.2s% retracement of 104.62 to 110.02 at 107.95 holds. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will confirm our view and target 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.34; (P) 106.62; (R1) 106.82; More...

USD/JPY’s break of 106.35 suggests resumption of whole decline from 111.71. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 100% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58 next. At this point, downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD is still unconvincing. The structure of the fall from 111.71 doesn’t warrant that it’s an impulsive move resuming larger down trend. Reactions from 104.58 could finally reveal whether fall from 111.71 is corrective. On the upside, break of 107.49 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 109.38 resistance.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.56; (P) 103.88; (R1) 104.12; More...

USD/JPY is losing some downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But further decline should be see with 104.56 minor resistance intact, to retest 103.17 low. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 111.71. However, break of 104.56 will turn bias back to the upside for 105.67 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.49; (P) 110.70; (R1) 111.05; More…

USD/JPY surges to as high as 111.34 so far today. Break of 111.13 suggests resumption of rise from 108.10. Intraday bias is now on the upside with focus on 111.39 key resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 104.62 low. That will also add credence to the case of medium term reversal and target 114.73 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, however, break of 110.34 will indicate near term reversal. And, the consolidation pattern from 111.39 would then start the third leg for 108.10 again before completion.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.12; (P) 103.84; (R1) 104.23; More...

USD/JPY drops to as low as 103.17 so far today and met 100% projection of 106.10 to 104.02 from 105.34 at 103.26. Intraday bias stays on the downside. Next target is 161.8% projection at 101.97. On the upside, above 104.02 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But overall near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 105.34 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.47; (P) 108.78; (R1) 109.20; More…

A temporary low is in place at 108.10 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. As long as 109.82 minor resistance holds, deeper decline is expected in USD/JPY. Below 108.10 will target 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20. Break will likely resume larger decline from 118.65 for a new low below 104.62. On the upside, break of 109.82 is needed to confirm completion of the fall from 111.39. Otherwise, near term outlook will be mildly bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY remains bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). The development. Current deeper than expected fall from 111.39 argues that fall from 118.65 is not finished. Break of 104.62 low would target 98.97 or even below. Though, break of 111.39 will revive the case that fall from 118.65 has completed and turn focus to 114.73 for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.03; (P) 133.69; (R1) 134.84; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Rebound from 127.20 short term bottom is in progress for 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64. Strong resistance could be seen there to complete the corrective rise. On the downside, break of 131.49 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, prior of 55 week EMA (now at 131.47) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong rebound from current level, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 will argue that price actions from 151.93 is merely a corrective pattern. However, rejection by 136.64 will solidify medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.42; (P) 133.81; (R1) 134.38; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 129.62 resumed by breaking through 135.13 resistance today. Intraday bias is back on the upside with focus on near term channel resistance (now at 136.17). Sustained break there will raise the chance of resumption of whole rise from 127.20, and target 137.90 resistance and above. For now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 133.00 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 high are currently seen as a corrective pattern to the long term up trend. The first leg should have completed at 127.20. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg. Sustained break of 31.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34 will bring stronger rebound to 142.48. Meanwhile, break of 129.62 will argue that the third leg is starting to 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.58; (P) 103.75; (R1) 103.87; More..

USD/JPY is staying in range below 104.39 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 104.39 and sustained trading above the channel resistance will argue that the down trend from 111.71 has finally completed. Stronger rise would be seen to 105.67 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 103.51 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 102.58 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 105.67 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.04; (P) 129.82; (R1) 130.36; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 127.20 will resume the whole decline from 151.93 and target 121.43 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 131.56 should confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 134.13).

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 week EMA (now at 131.47) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong support could be seen around 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 to bring rebound. But break of 131.56 resistance is needed to indicate bottoming first. Otherwise further fall will remain in favor.