Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.48; (P) 106.83; (R1) 107.28; More…

Consolidation from 105.54 is still in progress and intraday bias stays neutral in USD/JPY. Also, with 108.27 resistance intact, outlook remains mildly bearish and deeper fall is expected. On the downside, break of 105.54 will extend the larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. However, break of 108.27 will be the first sign of near term reversal and will target 110.47 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.70; (P) 108.86; (R1) 109.10; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, above 109.77 will resume the rebound from 107.47 to retest 110.95 high. On the downside, break of 108.34 will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. We’d monitor the structure of the fall from 110.95, to assess whether it’s just correction to rise from 102.58 to 110.95, or a leg of a range pattern between 101.18 and 111.71, or starting another leg of the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.29; (P) 104.51; (R1) 104.90; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first and further decline is mildly in favor with 105.85 resistance intact. Firm break of 104.00 will resume larger decline from 111.71, towards 101.18 low. On the upside, firm break of 105.05 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 106.10 resistance.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

USD/JPY’s sharp decline last week suggests that rebound from 106.07 has completed at 108.16 already. more importantly, he corrective pattern from 111.71 is likely extending with another falling leg. Initial bias remains mildly on the downside this week for 106.07 support first. Break will target 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20. On the upside, break of 107.24 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.96; (P) 132.26; (R1) 132.92; More…

USD/JPY’s decline from 139.37 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside. Further fall would be seen towards 126.35 support. But strong support is expected above there, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. On the upside, above 132.49 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first, and bring some consolidations.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 139.37, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Fall from there could be correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 121.84) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.09; (P) 110.38; (R1) 110.80; More…

USD/JPY rises further today but it’s still staying below 110.89 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 110.89 will resume the rise from 108.10 and target 111.39. Firm break there will resume the rally from 104.62 and target 114.73 key resistance. On the downside, below 109.36 will extend the consolidation from 111.39 with another decline. But we’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.10; (P) 106.35; (R1) 106.78; More…

At this point, USD/JPY is still staying in sideway trading in range of 105.24/107.67. Intraday bias remains neutral. With 107.67 resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish and further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. On the upside, firm break of 107.67 resistance will indicate near term reversal, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.44; (P) 108.75; (R1) 109.00; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment as it’s staying inside range of 108.24/109.48. On the upside, break of 109.48 resistance will resume whole rise from 104.45 and target trend line resistance (now at 111.79). On the downside, break of 108.24 support will revive the case of short term reversal. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 107.88 support to confirm.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.02; (P) 111.23; (R1) 111.52; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in the consolidation below 111.78 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. With 110.63 minor support intact, further rise is still expected. Break of 111.78 will target near term channel resistance (now at 112.85). Sustained break there will suggest that whole pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12 already. In such case, further rise should be seen to 114.36 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 110.63 will turn bias back to the downside for 108.81 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.35; (P) 106.53; (R1) 106.80; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 105.04 is still in progress. Near term outlook remains bearish with 107.09 minor resistance intact, and further fall is expected. On the downside, break of 105.04 will resume larger decline from 112.40 to 104.69 low. Break will target 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. On the upside, though, break of 107.09 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. In this case, stronger rebound would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.75).

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.29; (P) 108.47; (R1) 108.76; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. Outlook is unchanged that considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, a short term top should be formed. Upside of recovery should be limited below 109.28/31 resistance to bring fall another decline. On the downside, below 107.88 will target 106.48 support. break will confirm completion of whole rebound from 104.45 and target retest of this low. However, decisive break of 109.31 will be an early sign of medium term reversal and target 112.40 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.94; (P) 113.24; (R1) 113.58; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for 111.58 low. Current development argues that consolidation from 111.58 has completed with three waves to 115.49. And larger decline from 118.65 is resuming. Break of 111.58 will target 61.8% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 111.12. That coincides with 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. We’d tentatively expect strong support from there to bring rebound. But firm break there will target 100% projection at 108.42. On the upside, outlook will stays bearish as long as 115.49 holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.89; (P) 106.29; (R1) 106.98; More...

USD/JPY is still holding in range of 105.10/107.05 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case of near term reversal and bring stronger rally. On the downside, break of 105.10 will target a test on 104.18. Break there will resume whole decline from 111.71.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.51; (P) 113.75; (R1) 114.12; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral this point. With 112.95 support intact, near term outlook stays bullish and further rally is in favor. Sustained trading above 114.49 key resistance will pave the way to retest 118.65 high. However, break of 112.95 support will now indicate rejection from 114.49 and turn bias to the downside for 111.64 support and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completes. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.11; (P) 134.62; (R1) 135.34; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point, and further decline is still in favor with 135.68 minor resistance intact. Fall from 137.76 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 137.90. Below 133.48 will target 133.00 first, break will target 129.62 support. Still, as long as 129.62 holds, larger rebound from 127.20 is still in favor to resume at a later stage. On the upside, above 135.68 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 137.76/90 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 high are currently seen as a corrective pattern to the long term up trend. The first leg should have completed at 127.20. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34 will bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 142.48. Meanwhile, break of 129.62 will argue that the third leg is starting through 127.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.22; (P) 108.60; (R1) 108.86; More…

At this point, intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside for 107.53 support. Rebound from 106.78 could have completed at 108.99, after rejection by 55 day EMA. Break of 107.53 will likely send USD/JPY through 106.78 to resume the decline from 112.40. For now, near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 108.99 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.06; (P) 113.44; (R1) 113.94; More..

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation below 113.81 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. With 112.56 minor support intact, another rise is mildly in favor. On the upside, above 113.81 will extend the rebound from 113.37 to 114.54 resistance. We’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another fall. On the downside, break of 112.56 minor support will argue that the rebound has completed. And, in that case, the corrective pattern from 114.54 could have started the third leg for 111.37 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.72; (P) 105.83; (R1) 106.47; More...

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is in favor as long as 107.05 resistance holds. Break of 105.10 will bring retest of 104.18 support first. Further break will resume whole decline from 111.71. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case of near term reversal and bring stronger rally.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.89; (P) 146.26; (R1) 146.79; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside for the moment. Sustained break of 61.8% projection of 129.62 to 145.06 from 137.22 at 146.76 will pave the way to retest 151.93 high. For now, outlook will stays cautiously bullish as long as 144.52 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.36; (P) 109.62; (R1) 109.84; More…

Break of 110.19 resistance suggests that choppy rise from 107.42 has resumed. Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the upside for retesting 110.95 high. Firm break there will resume larger rise from 102.58 to 111.71 resistance next. For now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 109.32 support holds. However, break of 109.32 will turn bias back to the downside for 108.55, and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above.