Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.49; (P) 110.70; (R1) 111.05; More…

USD/JPY drew strong support from 4 hour 55 EMA and rebounds sharply. Focus is turned back to 111.13 minor resistance. Break there will target 111.39 first. Based on current momentum, firm break of 111.39 will resume the larger rally from 104.62 to 114.73 key resistance next. On the downside, below 110.27 will turn bias to the downside for 109.36 first.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.48; (P) 111.78; (R1) 112.23; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current rise from 104.69 should target 114.54 resistance next. On the downside, below 111.50 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 110.35 support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, current strong rebound from 104.69 argues that decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.69, after failing 104.62. More importantly, the rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus now turns back to 114.54 resistance, decisive break there will add more credence to this bullish case and target 118.65. This will now be the favored case as long as 110.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.59; (P) 104.70; (R1) 104.85; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, decisive break of 104.39 resistance turned support will indicate that rebound from 102.58 has completed at 105.76. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 103.31 support first. Though, rebound from current level, followed by break of 105.76 will target 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 106.06.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.90) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.31).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.80; (P) 105.25; (R1) 105.53; More...

Further fall is expected in USD/JPY with 105.68 minor resistance intact, despite loss of downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. Current fall is part of the decline from 111.71 and should target 100% projection of 111.71 to 105.98 from 109.85 at 104.12 next. On the upside, above 105.68 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidation. But recovery should be limited below 106.63 support turned resistance to bring another decline.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.16; (P) 107.66; (R1) 107.96; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 108.16 temporary top might extend. But further rise will remain in favor as long as 106.79 support holds. Above 108.16 will target 109.85 resistance first. Break will argue that larger rebound from 101.18 might be resuming to 112.22 key resistance. On the downside, below 106.79 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn bias back to the downside for 106.07 instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.79; (P) 148.02; (R1) 148.42; More…

USD/JPY’s rally from 140.25 is in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside. Further rally is expected to retest 151.89/93 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of larger up trend. On the downside, below 147.62 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 145.88 support holds.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as a correction to the rally from 127.20, which might have completed at 140.25 already. Firm break of 151.89/93 resistance zone will confirm up trend resumption next target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.50. This will now remain the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.64; (P) 114.96; (R1) 115.23; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. More sideway trading could be seen. On the upside, firm break of 116.34 will resume larger up trend from 102.58 to 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 114.40 will continue the corrective pattern from 116.34 with another fall to 113.46 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.64) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.33; (P) 132.25; (R1) 134.10; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first with current recovery. Some consolidations could be seen above 130.38 temporary low. On the downside, below 130.38 will resume the fall from 139.37, as a correction to medium term uptrend, towards 126.35 support. Strong support is expected above there, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 134.58 will turn bias to the upside for stronger rally to retest 139.37 high.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 139.37, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Fall from there could be correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 121.84) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.62; (P) 106.95; (R1) 107.24; More...

USD/JPY recovers today with a break of 107.24 minor resistance. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, below 106.63 will target 106.07. Break there will extend the whole pattern from 111.71 and target 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20. On the upside, however, break of 108.16 will resume the rebound from 106.07 and target 109.85 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.30; (P) 105.55; (R1) 105.70; More...

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook despite loss of upside momentum. Further rise is still in favor with 104.92 minor support intact. Sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 105.94) will raise the chance of bullish reversal and target 106.94 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, though, below 104.92 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 104.00 instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

USD/JPY edged higher to 114.69 but retreated just ahead of 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 114.71. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for pull back. But downside should be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, firm break of 114.71 will pave the way to 100% projection at 118.18 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.08; (P) 147.41; (R1) 147.80; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidation from 147.88 and intraday bias stays neutral. In case of another pull back, near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 144.43 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 147.88 will resume larger rise from 127.20, to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by break of 137.22 support will indicate that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

After dipping to 107.53 last week, USD/JPY took a u-turn to resume the rebound from 106.78 through 108.53. Initial focus is now on 108.80 resistance this week. Firm break there will confirm short term bottoming at 106.78. Further rise should then been seen to 110.67 resistance next. On the downside, break of 107.53 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 106.78 low.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.53; (P) 106.89; (R1) 107.13; More…

USD/JPY is still staying in range below 107.48 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, below 106.61 minor support will bring deeper fall to 105.65. Break of 105.65 support will indicate that the rebound from 104.62 is completed and target a test on 104.62 low. This will also retain medium term bearishness for down trend resumption later. On the upside, above 107.48 will extend the rebound to 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 which is close to 108.12 and is crucial to determine the medium term outlook.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.50; (P) 108.85; (R1) 109.15; More…

USD/JPY’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rise from 104.62 should extend to 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 110.86 next. On the downside, below 108.54 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, break of 108.12 support turned resistance now suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. And, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus is back on 114.73 resistance and break there will pave the way to 118.65 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as USD/JPY stays above 55 day EMA (now at 107.47).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.75; (P) 106.20; (R1) 106.46; More...

As the fall from 107.05 accelerates, focus is now back on 105.30 support in USD/JPY. Firm break there will firstly suggests that rebound from 104.18 has completed. More importantly, that would suggest that decline from 111.71 isn’t completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 104.18 low. On the upside, though, break of 107.05 resistance will revive the case of bullish reversal and turn bias back to the upside for 108.16 resistance.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.86; (P) 111.93; (R1) 112.00; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment with focus on 112.13 key resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rise from 104.69 for 100 % projection of 109.71 to 111.82 and 110.84 at 112.95 first. On the downside, firm break of 111.69 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 110.84 support. Break will bring deeper fall back to 109.71 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.00; (P) 107.19; (R1) 107.41; More…

At this point, the consolidation pattern from 107.77 is still unfolding and intraday bias stays neutral in USD/JPY. With 106.64 minor support intact, rebound from 104.62 is in favor to continue. Break of 107.77 will target 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 which is close to 108.12. This level is crucial in determining the medium outlook. On the downside, break of 106.64, however, will indicate the rebound from 104.62 has completed. And in that case, bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 104.62.

In the bigger picture, as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds, the medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) should still continue lower, at least to retest 98.97 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 108.12 will be an early sign of medium term reversal. In that case, further rise would be seen to 114.73 resistance to confirm completion of the fall from 118.65.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 126.50; (P) 126.75; (R1) 127.25; More…

USD/JPY’s up trend resumed after brief retreat and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rally should target 130.04 long term projection level next. On the downside, below 126.78 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside of retreat should be contained by 125.09 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, the break of 125.85 resistance (2015 high) suggests that whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is resuming. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. Sustained break there wave the way to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.38; (P) 141.17 (R1) 142.59; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first with today’s retreat. On the upside, above 141.93 will resume the rebound from 137.22 to 145.06 first. Firm break there will target 61.8% projection of 129.62 to 127.22 from 145.06 at 146.76 next. On the downside, below 139.74 minor support will bring retest of 137.22 instead.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that the second leg (the rise from 127.20) might not be over yet. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.