USDJPY Outlook

USD/JPY surged to 157.33 last week but lost momentum since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Rise from 152.07 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 159.44. Above 157.33 will target a retest on 159.44 high. On the downside, below 155.51 minor support will bring deeper fall as another falling leg. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 151.68) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.

In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and might be ready to resumption. Firm break of 161.94 will target 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term. Long term outlook will stay bullish as long as 139.87 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.60; (P) 156.97; (R1) 157.41; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first. Rise from 142.07 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 159.44. Above 157.33 will target 159.44 high. On the downside, below 155.51 minor support will turn bias to the downside for deeper retreat. But overall outlook will stay bullish as long as 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96, in case of another dip.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 151.59) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.60; (P) 156.97; (R1) 157.41; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. Rise from 152.07 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 159.44. Further rebound should be seen to retest 159.44 next. On the downside, below 155.51 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But overall outlook will stay bullish as long as 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96, in case of another dip.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 151.59) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.