Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.29; (P) 108.46; (R1) 108.66; More..

USD/JPY’s fall to 107.65 invalidates our bullish view and intraday bias is turned neutral first. At this point, we’re still seeing price actions from 109.72 as consolidation pattern. Downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.45 to 109.72 at 107.70. On the upside, break of 108.86 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 109.72 high. However, sustained break of 107.70 will pave the way to 106.48 cluster support (61.8% retracement at 106.46).

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Recovery from 104.45 also failed to sustain above 55 week EMA (now at 109.02). Overall outlook remains bearish and fall from 118.65 is in favor to extend through 104.45 low. This will now stay as the favored case as long as 109.72 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.97; (P) 105.22; (R1) 105.38; More...

USD/JPY’s breach of 104.73 minor support argues that rebound from 103.17 might have completed at 105.67, ahead of 106.10 resistance. It’s also back below 55 day EMA, staying well inside near term falling channel. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 103.17 low. Break will resume whole decline from 111.71. On the upside, firm break of 106.10 resistance should confirm completion of fall from 111.71, and turn outlook bullish for further rally.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance will suggest that the decline from 111.71 has completed. Focus will then be back to this resistance to signal medium term reversal.

USD/JPY’s up trend resumed last week and rose to 136.70, but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Downside of retreat should be contained above 131.48 support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81 will target 100% projection at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

In the long term picture, the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) has just resumed. Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.33; (P) 110.65; (R1) 111.02; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside for 111.71/112.22 resistance. Firm break there will solidify medium term bullishness. On the downside, below 110.17 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 108.40 support holds, in case of pull back.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the corrective down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed at 101.18. Firm break of 112.22 resistance should confirms this bullish case. A medium term up trend could then has started for 100% projection of 101.18 to 111.71 from 102.58 at 113.11 and then 161.8% projection at 119.61. Rejection by 111.71, however, will keep medium term outlook neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.82; (P) 104.74; (R1) 105.38; More..

USD/JPY recovered after hitting 103.07 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Break of 103.07 will bring retest of 101.18. Break will resume larger down trend to 98.97 support next. On the upside, break of 105.91 will extend the corrective rise to 61.8% retracement of 112.22 to 101.18 at 108.00 instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress. It’s seen as part of a larger consolidative pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). Such decline could could extend through 98.97 (2016 low). For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 112.22 resistance holds, even in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.46; (P) 105.82; (R1) 106.08; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point as range trading continues. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case that pull back from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 104.18. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 109.85 resistance. On the downside, break of 105.10 will bring retest 104.18 support first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.17; (P) 111.40; (R1) 111.78; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat, and with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. But further rise is still expected with 110.41 support intact. On the upside, sustained break of 111.71 key resistance will carry larger bullish implication. Next target is 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 110.95 from 107.47 at 112.64.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.34; (P) 137.05; (R1) 138.12; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first with current retreat. Some consolidations could be seen but outlook will remain bullish as long as 134.73 support holds. Break of 137.74 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.39; (P) 127.99; (R1) 129.03; More…

USD/JPY’s up trend resumed by breaking through 129.39 temporary top and intraday bias is back on the upside. Immediate focus is now on 130.04 long term projection level. Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 121.27 to 129.39 from 126.91 at 131.92, and then 100% projection at 135.03. On the downside, break of 126.91 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the break of 125.85 resistance (2015 high) suggests that whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is resuming. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. Sustained break there wave the way to 100% project at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.74; (P) 115.99; (R1) 116.36; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation below 116.34 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. Some consolidations could be seen but downside should be contained well above 114.26 support turned resistance to bring another rally. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% projection of 109.11 to 115.51 from 112.52 at 116.47 will pave the way to 100% projection at 118.90, which is close to 118.65 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 112.52 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.02; (P) 141.63; (R1) 142.05; More…

USD/JPY’s rally is resuming by breaking 142.24 temporary top. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 142.48 would extend the rise from 127.20 towards 151.93 high. However, break of 141.20 minor support will be the first sign of rejection by 142.48, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 137.62).

In the bigger picture, rise from 151.93 are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58. The first leg has completed at 127.20. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg, and should be limited below 151.93. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 137.47) will argue that the third leg has started back to 127.20 and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 118.25; (P) 118.69; (R1) 119.19; More…

USD/JPY’s rally resumed after brief consolidation and hits as high as 119.11 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Next near term target is 100% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 121.63. On the downside, break of 117.68 support is now needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Sustained break of 118.65 (2016 high) will pave the way to 125.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 113.46 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 116.28; (P) 116.73; (R1) 117.44; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound continues and focus is back on 118.65 resistance. Break will confirm resumption of whole rise from 98.97. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 125.85 high. We’d be cautious on topping at 125.85 on first attempt. In case of another retreat, downside should be contained by 114.76 support and bring rally resumption finally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the corrective is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.32; (P) 144.95; (R1) 145.54; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Rebound from 140.25 could extend through 146.40, but upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 151.89 to 140.25 at 147.44. On the downside, break of 143.41 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 140.25 low.

In the bigger picture, for now, fall from 151.89 is still seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.89. Another decline through 140.25 will target 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63. Sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). However, firm break of 147.44 fibonacci resistance will dampen this view and bring retest of 151.89 instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.74; (P) 106.95; (R1) 107.21; More..

USD/JPY rises further to as high as 107.48 so far. Break of near term channel resistance indicates upside acceleration. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 108.22. On the downside, break of 106.21 resistance turned support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.90) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.02).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.84; (P) 115.13; (R1) 115.49; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 116.34 is still extending. On the upside, break of 115.68 will resume the rebound from 113.46 to retest 116.34 high first. On the downside, break of 114.14 should extend the consolidation with another falling leg through 113.46 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.21) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.71; (P) 150.00; (R1) 150.44; More…

USD/JPY’s rally continues today and stays above 150 handle, without clear sign of intervention by Japan. Intraday bias stays on the upside. Current up trend would target 100% projection of 130.38 to 140.33 from 145.89 at 155.84 next. On the downside, break of 149.54 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations But near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 145.89 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is no clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 140.33 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 126.50; (P) 126.75; (R1) 127.25; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at his point. Current up trend should target 130.04 long term projection level next. On the downside, below 126.78 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside of retreat should be contained by 125.09 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, the break of 125.85 resistance (2015 high) suggests that whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is resuming. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. Sustained break there wave the way to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.96; (P) 110.07; (R1) 110.28; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside with 109.79 minor support intact. Current rise from 104.45 is in progress and should target 100% projection of 106.48 to 109.72 from 107.65 at 110.89 next. Nevertheless, break of 109.79 support will confirm short term topping and bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). There is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Hence, rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.95; (P) 106.31; (R1) 106.62; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. With 107.49 resistance intact, further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 105.98 will target 100% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58 next. Reactions from 104.58 could finally reveal whether fall from 111.71 is corrective or impulsive. On the upside, break of 107.49 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 109.38 resistance.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.