Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.06; (P) 133.06; (R1) 134.42; More…

Immediate focus remains on 134.49 resistance in USD/JPY. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, firm break of 134.49 should confirm short term bottoming. Bias will be turned back to the upside for 138.16 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 129.49 at 138.06. On the downside, break of 129.49 will resume the whole decline from 151.93 instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top was in place at 151.93. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 131.65) would raise the chance of bearish trend reversal. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 137.26) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.16; (P) 147.54; (R1) 147.99; More…

While USD/JPY’s pull back extended lower, it’s holding above 145.97 support so far. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment, and further rally is still in favor. As noted before, corrective fall from 151.89 should have completed at 140.25 already. Break of 148.79 will resume the rise from there for retesting 151.89/93 key resistance zone. However, firm break of 145.97 will dampen this view, and turn bias to the downside for deeper fall towards 140.25.

In the bigger picture, stronger than expected rebound from 140.25 dampened the original bearish review. Strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 142.49) is also a medium term bullish sign. Fall from 151.89 could be a correction to rise from 127.20 only. Decisive break of 151.89/93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. This will now be the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.86; (P) 114.04; (R1) 114.31; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, sustained break of 114.69 will resume larger up trend for 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next. In case the consolidation pattern from 114.69 extends with another fall, we’d continue to expect downside to be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.34; (P) 148.02; (R1) 149.05; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 148.79 is extending. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, but further rally is expected as long as 145.97 resistance turned support holds. Corrective fall from 151.89 should have completed at 140.25 already. Break of 148.79 will resume the rise from there for retesting 151.89/93 key resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, stronger than expected rebound from 140.25 dampened the original bearish review. Strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 141.89) is also a medium term bullish sign. Fall from 151.89 could be a correction to rise from 127.20 only. Decisive break of 151.89/93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. This will now be the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.77; (P) 111.04; (R1) 111.57; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 109.76 extends to as high as 111.48 so far. Break of 111.42 minor resistance argues that the correction from 113.17 has completed at 109.76 already. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 112.14 first. Break will bring retest of 113.17 high. On the downside, below 110.74 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 109.76 again. But after all, we’d continue to expect strong support around 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.62; (P) 147.01; (R1) 147.80; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as consolidation form 151.93 is still extending. Deeper fall might be seen but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 130.38 to 151.93 at 143.69 to bring rebound. Upside of rally attempt should be limited by 151.39 resistance.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is no clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 140.33 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.12; (P) 111.64; (R1) 112.53; More…

USD/JPY surges to as high as 112.37 so far today. The strong break of 111.39 resistance confirms resumption of whole rally from 104.62 low. More importantly, it adds much credence to the case of medium term reversal. Intraday bias is now on the on the upside for 61.8% projection of 104.62 to 111.39 from 109.36 at 113.54 first. Break will put focus on 114.73 key resistance for confirming the bullish case. On the downside, touching 111.34 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 110.34 support holds.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 affirms this view and should target 114.73 for confirmation. Firm break of 114.73 will likely send USD/JPY through 118.65 towards 125.85 key resistance (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.47; (P) 110.84; (R1) 111.49; More….

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as it’s bounded in range of 110.10/111.57. With 111.57 minor resistance intact, further fall is still in mildly favor. On the downside, break of 110.10 will extend the current fall from 118.65 to 100% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 108.42 and possibly below. Meanwhile, firm break of 111.57 will indicate short term bottoming and bring rebound back to 55 day EMA (now at 112.88).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.11) will indicates that such consolidation is not completed. And another fall would be seen back to 98.97 as the third leg. In that case, downside would be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.95 at 94.77 to complete the correction. On the upside, above 115.49 will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85 first. Overall, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume after the consolidation from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.89; (P) 115.37; (R1) 115.69; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Downside of the retreat from 116.34 should be contained well well above 114.26 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, firm break of 61.8% projection of 109.11 to 115.51 from 112.52 at 116.47 will pave the way to 100% projection at 118.90, which is close to 118.65 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 112.52 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.93; (P) 105.02; (R1) 105.12; More..

USD/JPY’s rally continues today and reaches as high as 105.37 so far. Current rise from 102.58 short term bottom is at least correcting the down trend from 111.71. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 106.06. On the downside, break of 104.96 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first, and bring consolidation before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.97) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.31).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.54; (P) 103.72; (R1) 103.94; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. It’s staying staying inside the falling channel that started at 111.71. Hence, deeper decline could be seen. Below 103.31 will bring retest of 102.58 low first. however, on the upside, break of 104.39 and sustained trading above the channel resistance will argue that the down trend from 111.71 has finally completed. Stronger rise would be seen to 105.67 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 105.67 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.85; (P) 107.31; (R1) 108.09; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. Corrective fall from 111.71 could have completed with three waves down to 105.98 already. Further rise would be seen to 109.38 resistance first. Break there will target a retest on 111.71. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 105.98 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.32; (P) 113.53; (R1) 113.78; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in range trading and intraday bias remains neutral for now. On the downside, sustained break of 112.71 will argue that it’s already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57. On the upside, break of 113.94 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 115.51 high instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.39; (P) 127.99; (R1) 129.03; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 121.27 to 129.39 from 126.91 at 131.92. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 135.03. On the downside, break of 126.91 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% project at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.29; (P) 107.43; (R1) 107.68; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside as rebound from 104.45 is till in progress. Further rise could be seen towards 109.31 resistance. We’d continue to look for topping sign as it approaches this 109.31 resistance. On the downside, break of 106.62 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 104.45 low instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 109.31 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.73; (P) 140.46; (R1) 140.98; More…

Breach of 139.74 minor support argues that recovery from 137.22 has completed at 141.93. Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the downside for retesting 137.22 support. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 145.06. On the upside, however, break of 141.93 will resume the rebound from 137.22 instead.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that the second leg (the rise from 127.20) might not be over yet. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

USD/JPY dropped to 106.92 last week but recovered ahead of 106.91 support. Initial bias stays neutral this week first and further fall is mildly in favor. On the downside, break of 106.91 will extend the decline from 111.71 to 100% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58. On the upside, break of 109.38 will suggest that fall from 111.71 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 111.71/112.22 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.28; (P) 115.53; (R1) 115.71; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 115.00 will extend the fall from 116.33, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 116.34. Deeper fall would be seen to 114.14 support, and then 113.46. On the upside, firm break of 116.34 will resume larger up trend from 102.58. Next target is 118.65 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.21) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.61; (P) 116.39; (R1) 117.72; More…

USD/JPY’s consolidation from 118.65 is still in progress and intraday bias stays neutral. Near term outlook remains bullish with 114.76 intact and further rise is expected. Above 118.65 will extend the whole rise from 98.97 to 125.85 key resistance next. However, sustained break of 114.76 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 113.00) and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.05 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.91; (P) 146.59; (R1) 147.27; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 147.88 and intraday bias remains neutral. While deeper pullback cannot be ruled out, outlook remains bullish with 144.43 support intact. On the upside, above 147.88 will resume larger rise from 127.20, to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by break of 137.22 support will indicate that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.