Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.45; (P) 146.12; (R1) 147.07; More…

USD/JPY’s decline from 151.93 accelerated lower today Break of 38.2% retracement of 130.38 to 151.93 at 143.69 argues that fall form 151.93 is correcting larger up trend. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 130.38/139.37 support zone. On the other hand, strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 146.78 resistance, will indicate that such correction has completed, and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 144.44) will argue that 151.93 is a medium term top. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. While it’s too early to call for trend reversal, deeper decline would then be seen to 55 week EMA (now at 130.73).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.54; (P) 106.96; (R1) 107.22; More...

USD/JPY rebounds strongly ahead of 106.63 support but stays below 107.54 minor resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 107.54 will turn bias to the upside for 108.16. Break there will resume whole rebound from 106.07 to 109.85 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 106.63 will turn bias to the downside for 106.07 support instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

USD/JPY dropped further to 104.02 last week but couldn’t break through 104.00 support and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first and further fall is expected. Firm break of 104.00 will resume larger decline from 111.71, towards 101.18 low. On the upside, firm break of 105.05 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 106.10 resistance.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.54; (P) 103.72; (R1) 103.94; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. It’s staying staying inside the falling channel that started at 111.71. Hence, deeper decline could be seen. Below 103.31 will bring retest of 102.58 low first. however, on the upside, break of 104.39 and sustained trading above the channel resistance will argue that the down trend from 111.71 has finally completed. Stronger rise would be seen to 105.67 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 105.67 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

USD/JPY rose further to 111.65 last week but failed to break through 111.71 key resistance and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first but another rise remains in favor with 110.41 support intact. On the upside, sustained break of 111.71 will carry larger implication. Next target is 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 110.95 from 107.47 at 112.64. However, break of 110.41 will indicate short term topping and bring pull back 55 day EMA (now at 109.61).

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.51; (P) 108.72; (R1) 109.14; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with today retreat. Consolidation should be relatively brief with 108.08 minor support intact. Break of 109.22 will resume recent rally to channel resistance at 110.02 next. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. Break of 108.08 will bring deeper correction. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 106.21 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.02). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.31; (P) 111.75; (R1) 112.02; More..

USD/JPY’s pull back from 112.22 extends accelerates lower today but it’s staying above 110.28 support. Intraday bias remains neutral and another rise is still mildly in favor. Firm break of 112.40 resistance will affirm medium term bullishness and target 114.54 key resistance next. However, sustained break of 110.28 will bring deeper fall to 108.30 support next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that corrective fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) might have completed with three waves down to 104.45 already. Focus is back of 114.54 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm this case and bring resumption of whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) towards 125.85 (2015 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 108.30 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.61; (P) 107.70; (R1) 107.81; More..

USD/JPY is still bounded in tight range below 108.08 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral for some more consolidation. We’re still favoring the case that corrective fall from 111.71 has already completed at 105.98. Further rise should be seen and break of 108.08 will turn bias to the upside for 109.38 resistance. However, break of 106.74 support will dampen our bullish view and turn bias to the downside for 105.98 instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.41; (P) 121.91; (R1) 122.86; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside in spite of current retreat. Sustained trading above 100% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 121.63, will pave the way to 125.85 long term resistance. On the downside, however, below 120.58 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, the break of 118.65 resistance (2016 high) suggest that up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming, with rise from 101.18 (2020 low) as the third leg. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 113.46 low. Next target is 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.84; (P) 104.75; (R1) 106.29; More...

USD/JPY’s break of 1045.34 resistance is seen as a sign of near term bullish reversal. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 106.10 resistance next. Decisive break there should confirm completion of fall from 111.71 and turn outlook bullish for further rally. On the downside, break of 104.57 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 103.17 low instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance will suggest that the decline from 111.71 has completed. Focus will then be back to this resistance to signal medium term reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.39; (P) 109.79; (R1) 110.10; More…

Break of 109.46 minor support suggests that USD/JPY’s rebound from 108.10 has completed at 110.26 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 108.10 support or below. For now, price actions from 111.39 are seen as a corrective pattern. We’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 110.26 resistance will resume the rebound to 111.39 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.52; (P) 104.90; (R1) 105.13; More...

USD/JPY’s strong rebound and break of 105.29 resistance suggests short term bottoming at 104.18. That came just ahead of 100% projection of 111.71 to 105.98 from 109.85 at 104.12. Intraday bias is turn back to the upside for stronger recovery. Focus is back on 106.07 support turned resistance. As long as 106.07 holds, larger decline from 111.71 is still in favor to extend lower. However, sustained break of 106.07 will indicate near term bullish reversal and target 108.18 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.04; (P) 127.43; (R1) 128.00; More…

Focus remains on 129.77 resistance in USD/JPY. Break there should confirm that pull back from 131.34 has completed at 126.35. Larger up trend should be resuming. Further break of 131.34 high will confirm this bullish case. Meanwhile, even if the correction from 131.34 is to extend, downside should be contained by 125.09 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 114.40 to 131.34 at 124.86) to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.12; (P) 145.85; (R1) 146.89; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first with current retreat. Break of 144.80 minor support will suggest that rebound from 141.59 has completed at 146.58, after rejection by 55 4H EMA. Intraday bias will then be back on the downside for retesting 141.59 low. Overall outlook will stay bearish as long as 147.14 support turned resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, current fall from 151.89 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Deeper decline would be seen through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. This will now remain the favored as long as 147.14 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.04; (P) 132.41; (R1) 133.26; More…

USD/JPY’s fall from 137.90 is still in progress and it’s now touching 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 137.90 at 131.28. Intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment. Sustained break of 131.28 will pave the way to retest 127.20 low next. On the upside, above 133.81 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring some consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 127.20 should have completed at 137.90 as a corrective move, with strong break of 55 day EMA. The down trend from 151.93 (2022 high) is not over yet. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.15; (P) 142.66; (R1) 143.30; More…

No change in USD/JPY for now despite today’s strong recovery. Upside should be limited below 156.48 resistance to bring another decline. Firm break of 140.94 will resume the whole fall from 151.89. Next target will be next fibonacci level at 136.63.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63, sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). This will now remain the favored as long as 146.58 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.73; (P) 105.40; (R1) 106.60; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Sustained trading above 106.07 support turned resistance should confirm short term bottoming at 104.18. More importantly, whole corrective decline from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 104.18, just missed 100% projection of 111.71 to 105.98 from 109.85 at 104.12. In the case, further rise should be seen to 108.16 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.86; (P) 140.66; (R1) 141.16; More…

Intraday bias in is turned neutral for the moment, as USD/JPY lost momentum after briefly breaching 137.90 resistance turned support. Some consolidations could be seen, but recovery should be limited by 55 4H EMA (now at 141.03) and bring another decline. Sustained break of 137.90 will confirm the larger bearish case, and target 127.20 and below.

In the bigger picture, current downside acceleration, as seen in daily MACD, argues that fall from 145.06 is already the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Sustained break of 137.90 resistance turned support should confirm this case and target 127.20 (2023 low) and below. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 145.06 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.97; (P) 105.22; (R1) 105.38; More...

USD/JPY’s breach of 104.73 minor support argues that rebound from 103.17 might have completed at 105.67, ahead of 106.10 resistance. It’s also back below 55 day EMA, staying well inside near term falling channel. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 103.17 low. Break will resume whole decline from 111.71. On the upside, firm break of 106.10 resistance should confirm completion of fall from 111.71, and turn outlook bullish for further rally.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance will suggest that the decline from 111.71 has completed. Focus will then be back to this resistance to signal medium term reversal.

USD/JPY’s up trend resumed last week and rose to 136.70, but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Downside of retreat should be contained above 131.48 support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81 will target 100% projection at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

In the long term picture, the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) has just resumed. Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high).