Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.36; (P) 107.61; (R1) 107.86; More…

USD/JPY’s rally continues to as high as 108.56 so far with upside acceleration seen in 4 hour MACD. Current developments suggests that medium term trend is possibly reversing. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 110.86 next. On the downside, below 107.77 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, break of 108.12 support turned resistance now suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. And, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus is back on 114.73 resistance and break there will pave the way to 118.65 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as USD/JPY stays above 55 day EMA (now at 107.41).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.05; (P) 109.27; (R1) 109.47; More…

Outlook in USD/JPY is unchanged as range trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise is mildly in favor for now. Break of 109.77 will resume the rebound from 107.47 to retest 110.95 high. On the downside, break of 108.34 will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support and below instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. We’d monitor the structure of the fall from 110.95, to assess whether it’s just correction to rise from 102.58 to 110.95, or a leg of a range pattern between 101.18 and 111.71, or starting another leg of the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.16; (P) 147.54; (R1) 147.99; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point as consolidation from 148.79 is still extending. With 145.97 resistance turned support intact, further rally is in favor. As noted before, corrective fall from 151.89 should have completed at 140.25 already. Break of 148.79 will resume the rise from there for retesting 151.89/93 key resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, stronger than expected rebound from 140.25 dampened the original bearish review. Strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 142.33) is also a medium term bullish sign. Fall from 151.89 could be a correction to rise from 127.20 only. Decisive break of 151.89/93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. This will now be the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.32; (P) 113.53; (R1) 113.78; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, sustained break of 112.71 will argue that it’s already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57. On the upside, break of 113.94 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 115.51 high instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

USD/JPY’s up trend resumed last week by breaking through 151.93 resistance. But it retreated after hitting 153.37. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 150.80 support holds. Above 153.37 will target 155.20 fibonacci projection level next.

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. Outlook will now remain bullish as long as 146.47 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the long term picture, as long as 127.20 support holds (2023 low), up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress. Sustained trading above 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 102.58 at 152.87 will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 172.08. (This is a pure technical view without considering Japan’s intervention.)

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.02; (P) 110.36; (R1) 110.81; More…

At this point, USD/JPY cannot sustain above 110.66 resistance yet. Intraday bias remains neutral with focus on 110.66. Below 109.29 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 107.31. Break of 107.31 will extend the whole fall from 118.65 to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 first. We’d look for support from there to bring rebound. Meanwhile, firm break of 110.66 will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 114.49 resistance.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is now seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.53; (P) 106.89; (R1) 107.13; More…

While intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral, focus is back to 107.48 temporary top with today’s rebound. Break will resume whole rise from 104.62 and target 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 which is close to 108.12. This resistance zone will be crucial in determining the medium outlook. On the downside, below 106.61 minor support will bring deeper fall to 105.65. Break of 105.65 support will indicate that the rebound from 104.62 is completed and target a test on 104.62 low. This will also retain medium term bearishness for down trend resumption later.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.60; (P) 109.85; (R1) 110.08; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 109.53 support holds. Break of 110.28 resistance will resume larger rebound from 104.45 and target medium term falling channel resistance at 111.19. However, break of 109.53 minor support will turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish outlook yet in spite of the rebound from 104.45. The pair is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and the down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.94; (P) 104.29; (R1) 104.89; More...

USD/JPY’s strong rebound and breach of 104.56 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 105.67 has completed. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 105.67 resistance. On the downside, below 103.65 minor support will bring retest of 103.17 low. Overall, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel, and below 55 day EMA. Down trend from 111.71 is expected to continue as long as 105.67 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.22; (P) 108.60; (R1) 108.86; More…

At this point, intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside for 107.53 support. Rebound from 106.78 could have completed at 108.99, after rejection by 55 day EMA. Break of 107.53 will likely send USD/JPY through 106.78 to resume the decline from 112.40. For now, near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 108.99 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.09; (P) 112.40; (R1) 112.92; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 113.32 will revive near term bullishness and turn bias to the upside for 114.73. On the downside, however, decisive break of 111.64 support will argue that whole rebound from 107.31 has completed. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 101.14 and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completes. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming. However, firm break of 111.64 support will dampen this view and turn focus back to 107.31 instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.55; (P) 127.92; (R1) 128.32; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias remains on the downside. Correction from 131.34 short term top would extend to 125.09 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 114.40 to 131.34 at 124.86). But strong support is expected from there to contain downside to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 129.77 minor resistance will suggest that the correction is finished and bring retest of 131.34.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.36; (P) 110.84; (R1) 111.14; More…

USD/JPY recovers mildly today but stays well below 112.18 resistance. Intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment. Current decline from 114.49 should extend to 108.81 support first. Break there will resume whole correction from 118.65 and target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 112.18 resistance will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.49 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.94; (P) 106.24; (R1) 106.49; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 105.10 will target a test on 104.18 low. Break there will resume whole decline from 111.71. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case of near term reversal and bring stronger rally towards 109.85 resistance.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.44; (P) 147.94; (R1) 148.78; More…

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged as consolidation from 151.93 is in progress. Intraday bias stays neutral. Deeper decline cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 130.38 to 151.93 at 143.69 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 149.69 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound back towards 151.93 high. But upside should be limited there to continue the corrective pattern.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is no clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 140.33 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.41; (P) 105.61; (R1) 105.93; More...

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 105.80 will resume the rebound from 104.00 to 106.94 resistance next. on the downside, break of 104.92 will suggest completion of rebound from 104.00. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting this low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.39; (P) 110.56; (R1) 110.82; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as it’s bounded in range of 110.27/111.13. On the downside, below 110.27 will bring deeper fall to 109.367 support. Break there will confirm that corrective pattern from 111.39 has started the third leg. And USD/JPY should target 108.10, and possibly below. In that case, we’d expect downside to be contained by 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20. On the upside, above 111.13 will bring retest of 111.39 instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.38; (P) 141.17 (R1) 142.59; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Rebound from 137.22 would target retesting 145.06 first. Firm break there will target 61.8% projection of 129.62 to 127.22 from 145.06 at 146.76 next. On the downside, below 139.74 minor support will bring retest of 137.22 instead.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that the second leg (the rise from 127.20) might not be over yet. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.79; (P) 109.16; (R1) 109.42; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 109.53 temporary top. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 107.77 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Break of 109.53 will resume the rise from 104.62 and target 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 110.86 next.

In the bigger picture, break of 108.12 support turned resistance now suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. And, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus is back on 114.73 resistance and break there will pave the way to 118.65 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as USD/JPY stays above 55 day EMA (now at 107.60).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.77; (P) 141.51; (R1) 142.86; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in range of 137.66/142.45 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 137.66 will resume the decline from 151.93, to 133.07 fibonacci level, as a correction to the larger up trend. Nevertheless, firm break of 142.45 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 143.34) and above.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 130.28).