Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.64; (P) 107.04; (R1) 107.32; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, above 107.48 will resume the rebound from 104.62. But reaction from 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 is crucial to determine the outlook. Firm break of 108.48 will add some credence to the case of trend reversal. And USD/JPY should target 61.8% retracement at 110.86 next. Nonetheless, rejection from 108.48 (which is close to 108.12 key resistance too), will retain bearishness. Break of 105.65 support will indicate that the rebound is completed and turn bias back to the downside for 104.62 and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.39; (P) 139.85; (R1) 140.69; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in sideway trading and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 138.22 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 140.90 will resume larger rise from 127.20 to 142.48 fibonacci level. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 138.22 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 137.02).

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Stronger rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 142.48. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 151.93. On the downside, however, break of 133.73 support will argue that the pattern could have started the third leg through 127.20 low.

USD/JPY dipped to 149.20 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 150.87 will resume the rise from 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. On the other hand, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 149.20 will confirm short term topping at 150.87. Deeper fall would be seen to channel support (now at 148.33), even as a corrective move.

In the bigger picture, rise from 140.25 is seen as resuming the trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Decisive break of 151.89/.93 resistance zone will confirm this bullish case and target 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.50. However, break of 148.79 resistance turned support will delay this bullish case, and extend the corrective pattern from 151.89 with another falling leg.

In the long term picture, as long as 125.85 resistance turned support holds (2015 high), up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in favor to continue through 151.93 (2022 high) at a later stage.

USD/JPY spiked lower to 104.45 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some more consolidations first. As long as 106.73 resistance holds, larger decline is expected to extend further. On the downside, break of 104.45 will resume recent down trend to 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. However, firm break of 106.73 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.31) and above.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 109.31 resistance is needed to the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.88; (P) 107.15; (R1) 107.61; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 106.42 finally resumed by taking out 107.48 and reaches as high as 107.66 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 which is close to 108.12. This resistance zone will be crucial in determining the medium outlook. On the downside, break of 106.64 minor support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise will remain in favor even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.43; (P) 110.59; (R1) 110.80; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with a temporary top formed at 110.95. Some consolations could be seen. But further rally is expected as long as 108.40 support holds. On the upside, break of 110.95 will resume the whole rise from 102.58, for 111.71/112.22 resistance zone next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the corrective down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed at 101.18. Firm break of 112.22 resistance should confirms this bullish case. A medium term up trend could then has started for 100% projection of 101.18 to 111.71 from 102.58 at 113.11 and then 161.8% projection at 119.61. Rejection by 111.71, however, will keep medium term outlook neutral first.

USD/JPY edged higher to 109.77 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 109.77 will resume the rebound from 107.47 to retest 110.95 high. On the downside, break of 108.34 will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. We’d monitor the structure of the fall from 110.95, to assess whether it’s just correction to rise from 102.58 to 110.95, or a leg of a range pattern between 101.18 and 111.71, or starting another leg of the long term down trend.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.04; (P) 113.30; (R1) 113.75; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, sustained break of 112.71 will argue that it’s already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57. On the upside, break of 113.94 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 115.51 high instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.33; (P) 104.63; (R1) 105.04; More..

USD/JPY’s rise from 102.58 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Such rebound should should at least be correcting the down trend from 111.71. Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 106.06. On the downside, break of 104.16 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.97) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.31).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.78; (P) 109.33; (R1) 109.74; More…

USD/JPY drops to as low as 108.64 so far as the correction from 110.02 short term top extends. Intraday bias stays on the downside for near term channel support (now at 108.56) and below. But we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 110.02 at 107.95 to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 109.24 minor resistance will bias back to the upside for 110.02. Break of 110.02 will resume the rise from 104.62 to t 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 110.86 next.

In the bigger picture, break of 108.12 support turned resistance now suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. And, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus is back on 114.73 resistance and break there will pave the way to 118.65 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as USD/JPY stays above 55 day EMA (now at 107.97).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.20; (P) 147.27; (R1) 147.88; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the downside with break of 146.65 temporary low. Fall from 151.89 is in progress and should target 145.06 key support level. On the upside, break of 148.50 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, further decline with remain in favor in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 (2023 low) is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Decisive break of 145.06 resistance turned support will confirm that this second leg has completed, after rejection by 151.93. Deeper fall would be seen through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. Nevertheless strong bounce from 145.06 will retain medium term bullishness for another test on 151.93 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.79; (P) 107.11; (R1) 107.42; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. We’re still favoring the case that corrective recovery from 104.45 has completed at 108.47. Thus, risk will remain on the downside as long as 108.47 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 106.48 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 104.45 low. On the upside, break of 108.47 will dampen this view and resume the rebound from 104.45 to 109.31 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.50; (P) 113.01; (R1) 113.35; More..

USD/JPY is still holding on to 112.23 support despite today’s steep fall. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 112.23 support will extend the corrective pattern from 114.54 with deeper decline to 111.37 and below. On the upside, above 113.70 will target 114.20 resistance first. Break there will resume the rise from 111.37 and target 114.73 key resistance next. Overall, price actions 114.54 are seen as a consolidative pattern. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound. Larger rise from 104.62 is expected to resume later.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

USD/JPY rose further to 154.77 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Break of 154.77 will resume larger up trend. But considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, strong resistance should be seen from 155.20 fibonacci level to bring correction on first attempt. On the downside, break of 153.58 will turn bias to the downside, for deeper pull back to 55 D EMA (now at 150.83).

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 146.47 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the long term picture, as long as 127.20 support holds (2023 low), up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress. Sustained trading above 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 102.58 at 152.87 will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 172.08. (This is a pure technical view without considering Japan’s intervention.)

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.56; (P) 143.01; (R1) 143.79; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY  neutral with current retreat. On the upside, above 143.88 will target a retest on 145.60 resistance first. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 172.20. Next target is 61.8% projection of 129.62 to 145.06 from 137.22 at 146.76. However, sustained trading below 55 4H EMA (now at 141.77) will turn bias back to the downside for 137.22/138.05 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.73; (P) 111.07; (R1) 111.38; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 111.39 temporary top. Downside of retreat should be contained by 110.02 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. Above 111.39 will extend the rally from 104.62 to trend line resistance at 112.31. Firm break there will target 114.73 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Rise from 104.62 is possibly resuming the up trend from 98.97 (2016 low). This will be the preferred case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 108.65) holds. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will confirm our view and target 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.75; (P) 107.02; (R1) 107.29; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment and outlook is unchanged. We’re favoring the case that corrective fall from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 105.98. Further rise is expected as long as 105.98 support holds. On the upside, break of 107.76 will turn bias back to the upside for 109.38 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.72; (P) 105.83; (R1) 106.47; More...

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is in favor as long as 107.05 resistance holds. Break of 105.10 will bring retest of 104.18 support first. Further break will resume whole decline from 111.71. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case of near term reversal and bring stronger rally.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.01; (P) 106.37; (R1) 106.69; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in range above 105.24 and intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. The consolidative trading from 105.24 is still in progress and could extend. But after all, near term outlook remains bearish with 107.67 resistance intact. And deeper decline is in favor. On the downside, break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. On the upside, firm break of 107.67 resistance will indicate near term reversal, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.03; (P) 139.55; (R1) 140.49; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation below 140.90 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 138.22 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 140.90 will resume larger rise from 127.20 to 142.48 fibonacci level. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 138.22 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 136.27).

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Stronger rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 151.93. On the downside, however, break of 133.73 support will argue that the pattern could have started the third leg through 127.20 low.