Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.91; (P) 112.20; (R1) 112.53; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point, but deeper fall is in favor. Decline from 114.54 is correcting whole rise from 104.62. Below 111.82 will target 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75. We’ll look for bottoming signal above 109.76 key support. On the upside, though, above 113.28 will indicate completion of the pull back and bring retest of 114.54 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.72; (P) 103.82; (R1) 103.93; More...

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and further fall is expected with 104.56 minor resistance intact. Deeper decline would be seen to retest 103.17 low. Firm break there will resume whole down trend form 111.71. On the upside, however, break of 104.56 will turn bias back to the upside for 105.67 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.12; (P) 110.49; (R1) 110.70; More…

USD/JPY is drawing support from 4 hour 55 EMA but it’s bounded in range below 110.84 so far. Intraday bias remains neutral. Overall outlook is unchanged that price actions from 111.39 are developing into a corrective pattern. Below 109.18 will start the third leg to 108.10 and possibly below to complete the pattern. Above 110.84 will bring retest of 111.39 first. Break will resume the whole rebound from 104.62.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.07; (P) 139.76; (R1) 140.27; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 140.90 is extending. Further rally is expected as long as 138.22 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 140.90 will resume larger rise from 127.20 to 142.48 fibonacci level. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 138.22 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 136.35).

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Stronger rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 151.93. On the downside, however, break of 133.73 support will argue that the pattern could have started the third leg through 127.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.30; (P) 129.96; (R1) 130.89; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as range trading is still in progress. On the downside, break of 127.20 will resume the whole decline from 151.93 and target 121.43 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 131.56 should confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 134.02).

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 week EMA (now at 131.47) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong support could be seen around 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 to bring rebound. But break of 131.56 resistance is needed to indicate bottoming first. Otherwise further fall will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.91; (P) 151.44; (R1) 151.85; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 150.25 support should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 149.01). Nevertheless, sustained break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.42; (P) 110.70; (R1) 110.90; More…

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral first. Further rally is still expected with 109.70 support intact. Larger up trend from 102.58 might be resuming. Above 111.10 will target 111.71 key resistance next. Firm break there will carry larger implication. Next target is 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 110.95 from 107.47 at 112.64 next. On the downside, however, break of 109.70 support will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.42; (P) 110.70; (R1) 110.90; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Further rally is still expected with 109.70 support intact. Larger up trend from 102.58 might be resuming. Above 111.10 will target 111.71 key resistance next. Firm break there will carry larger implication. Next target is 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 110.95 from 107.47 at 112.64 next. On the downside, however, break of 109.70 support will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.20; (P) 136.81; (R1) 137.66; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 133.61 short term bottom should target 55 day EMA (now at 141.41). However, break of 135.95 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 133.61 low instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 131.33). Some support should be seen around this zone to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

USD/JPY remains bounded in range of 105.10/107.05 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revise the case that pull back fall from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 104.18. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 109.85 resistance. On the downside, break of 105.10 will bring retest 104.18 support first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.36; (P) 112.62; (R1) 112.80; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 112.86 temporary top. Near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 111.82 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, above 112.86 will target 113.17 resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 104.62 and target 114.73 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.18; (P) 142.96; (R1) 144.07; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 140.25 short term bottom is in progress. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 151.89 to 140.25 at 144.69. On the downside, below 142.21 minor support will bring retest of 140.25 low instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63, sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). This will now remain the favored as long as 144.94 resistance holds.

USD/JPY’s rebound from 140.25 resumed last week and edged higher to 146.40. But subsequent retreat indicates temporary topping. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 143.41 minor support holds. Above 146.40 will target 61.8% retracement of 151.89 to 140.25 at 147.44. Upside should be limited there to bring reversal. On the downside, break of 143.41 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 140.25 low.

In the bigger picture, for now, fall from 151.89 is still seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.89. Another decline through 140.25 will target 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63. Sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). However, firm break of 147.44 fibonacci resistance will dampen this view and bring retest of 151.89 instead.

In the long term picture, as long as 125.85 resistance turned support holds (2015 high), up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in favor to continue through 151.93 (2022 high) at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.21; (P) 131.04; (R1) 132.28; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 131.88 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 132.89 has completed at 129.79 already. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 132.89 first. Break there will resume whole rebound from 127.20. Further rally should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64, even as a correction to the decline from 151.39. For now, further rally is in favor as long as 129.79 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, prior of 55 week EMA (now at 131.47) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong rebound from current level, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 will argue that price actions from 151.93 is merely a corrective pattern. However, rejection by 136.64 will solidify medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.12; (P) 145.85; (R1) 146.89; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. On the downside, firm break of 144.80 minor support will suggest that rebound from 141.59 has completed at 146.58, after rejection by 55 4H EMA. Intraday bias will then be back on the downside for retesting 141.59 low. Overall outlook will stay bearish as long as 147.14 support turned resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, current fall from 151.89 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Deeper decline would be seen through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. This will now remain the favored as long as 147.14 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.87; (P) 108.07; (R1) 108.27; More…

Focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 107.75. We’d still look for strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, above 108.99 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 110.95 high. However, sustained break of 107.75 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 105.77.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the corrective down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed at 101.18. Firm break of 112.22 resistance should confirms this bullish case. A medium term up trend could then has started for 100% projection of 101.18 to 111.71 from 102.58 at 113.11 and then 161.8% projection at 119.61. However, rejection by 111.71, followed by sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 107.96) will dampen the bullish view and keep medium term outlook neutral first.

USD/JPY’s gyrated lower last week as fall from 108.99 extends. Deeper fall should be seen initially this week for 106.78. Decisive break there will resume whole decline from 112.40 and target 104.69 low. On the upside, break of 108.37 will extend the correction from 106.78 with another rise, possibly through 108.99 resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

USD/JPY’s sharp decline last week confirmed short term topping at 161.94. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, fall from 161.94 is likely corrective whole five-wave rally from 140.25. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 160.25 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 157.67) will affirm this bearish case. Next target will be 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 161.94 at 163.65.

In the bigger picture, as long as 151.89 resistance turned support holds, long term up trend could still continue through 161.94 at a later stage. Next target will depend on the depth of the current correction from 161.94. However, sustained break of 151.89 will argue that larger scale correction or trend reversal is underway.

In the long term picture, as long as 140.25 support holds, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 102.58 at 172.08.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.18; (P) 143.64; (R1) 144.02; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment, as consolidation from 140.94 is extending. Upside of current recovery should be limited below 146.58 resistance to bring another decline. Firm break of 140.94 will resume the whole fall from 151.89. Next target will be next fibonacci level at 136.63.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63, sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). This will now remain the favored as long as 146.58 resistance holds.

USD/JPY’s pull back from 139.37 extended lower last week but stayed above 134.73 support. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of 134.73 will confirm short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour and daily MACD. Deeper fall would be seen through 55 day EMA to 126.35/131.34 support zone. On the upside, break of 139.37 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

In the long term picture, the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) has just resumed. Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high).