Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.93; (P) 147.40; (R1) 147.76; More…

USD/JPY recovered after dipping to 145.88 today, drawing support from near term rising channel. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment as consolidation form 147.88 could extend. But outlook remains bullish with 144.43 support intact. On the upside, above 147.88 will resume larger rise from 127.20, to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by break of 137.22 support will indicate that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.10; (P) 105.58; (R1) 105.87; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside at this point. Corrective rise from 104.18 should have completed at 107.05. Deeper fall would be seen for retesting this low. Break there will resume whole decline from 111.71. On the upside, above 106.05 minor resistance will turn focus back to 107.05 instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.20; (P) 150.82; (R1) 151.34; More…

While USD/JPY falls steeply today, it’s still holding above 149.17 support. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, decisive break of 151.93 resistance will confirm resumption of long term up trend. However, firm break of 149.17 will be a sign of bearish reversal and bring deeper fall to 147.28 support first.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is now on 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will argue that rise from 127.20 has completed, and turn outlook bearish for 137.22 support and below. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2021 low) to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.46; (P) 109.71; (R1) 110.10; More…

USD/JPY’s recovery from 109.02 was limited by 4 hour 55 EMA and 110.03 minor resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first and recent fall is expected to resume sooner rather than later. On the downside, break of 109.02 will resume the fall from 112.40 to retest 104.69 low. Nevertheless, break of 110.04 minor resistance will indicate short term bottom. Lengthier consolidation could then be seen before another decline.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Currently development suggests that rebound from 104.69 is only a corrective move. And fall from 118.65 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 104.69 will extend the down trend towards 98.97 support (2016 low). For now, we’d expect strong support above there to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.28; (P) 115.53; (R1) 115.71; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 115.00 will extend the fall from 116.33, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 116.34. Deeper fall would be seen to 114.14 support, and then 113.46. On the upside, firm break of 116.34 will resume larger up trend from 102.58. Next target is 118.65 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.21) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.41; (P) 108.60; (R1) 108.89; More..

Current development suggests that a temporary low is formed at 108.30 in USD/JPY. Intraday bias is turned neutral first with focus back on 109.26 minor resistance. Break will suggest that pull back from 110.28 has completed. More importantly, larger rebound from 104.45 is still in progress. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 110.28 first. on the downside, break of 108.30 will resume the fall to 107.65 support next.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish outlook yet in spite of the rebound from 104.45. The pair is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and the down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.42; (P) 108.68; (R1) 108.90; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with 4 hour MACD now staying well below signal line. Some consolidations could be seen but downside of retreat should be contained above 106.48 support. On the upside, above 108.93 will target 109.31 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications next target will be 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50.

In the bigger picture,strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

USD/JPY recovered further to 114.26 last week but dropped notably from there. Yet, there was no follow through selling. Initial bias is turned neutral first this week. On the downside, break of 112.52 will resume the fall from 115.51, as a correction to up trend from 102.57, and target 100% projection of 115.51 to 112.52 from 114.26 at 111.27. On the upside, above 114.26 will target a test on 115.51 high instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.34; (P) 136.22; (R1) 137.24; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside as fall from 151.94 is in progress. Next target is 133.07 medium term fibonacci level. Some support could be seen there to bring recovery. Break of 137.66 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. However, near term risk will stay on the downside as long as 142.24 resistance holds, even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 131.51).

USD/JPY rose further to 149.70 last week before retreating mildly since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more consolidations. While deeper pull back cannot be ruled out, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 147.31 support holds. On the upside, above 149.70 will resume larger rally to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Another falling leg could be seen, but in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75. On resumption, next target would be 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.56; (P) 134.22; (R1) 134.94; More…

Intraday bias stays on the downside at this point. Fall from 137.73 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 137.90. Break of 133.00 will bring deeper fall towards 129.62 support. But still, as long as 129.62 holds, larger rebound from 127.20 is still in favor to resume at a later stage. On the upside, above 135.68 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 137.76.90 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 high are currently seen as a corrective pattern to the long term up trend. The first leg should have completed at 127.20. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg. Sustained break of 31.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34 will bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 142.48. Meanwhile, break of 129.62 will argue that the third leg is starting through 127.20 low.

USD/JPY stayed in range of 108.34/109.77 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 109.77 will resume the rebound from 107.47 to retest 110.95 high. On the downside, break of 108.34 will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. We’d monitor the structure of the fall from 110.95, to assess whether it’s just correction to rise from 102.58 to 110.95, or a leg of a range pattern between 101.18 and 111.71, or starting another leg of the long term down trend.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.58; (P) 149.06; (R1) 149.76; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 150.15 is extending. On the downside, below 148.24 minor support will turn bias to the downside for another down leg through 147.28. But there is no confirmation of bearish trend reversal before firm break of 144.43 support. Another rally remains mildly in favor through 150.15 to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.09; (P) 132.48; (R1) 132.89; More…

Immediate focus is now on 129.49 support in USD/JPY. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 151.93. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 133.61 from 138.16 at 126.83. On the upside, however, break of 132.86 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and bring rebound to 134.76 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top was in place at 151.93. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 131.73) would raise the chance of bearish trend reversal. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 136.34) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.92; (P) 141.92; (R1) 142.87; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Current decline from 151.89 should target next fibonacci level at 136.63. On the upside, above 142.91 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But recovery should be limited well below 146.58 resistance to bring another decline.

In the bigger picture, current fall from 151.89 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63, sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). This will now remain the favored as long as 146.58 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.58; (P) 108.89; (R1) 109.41; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. Rebound from 104.69 short term bottom might extend higher. But we’d still expect upside to be limited by 109.46 resistance to complete the rebound from 104.69 short term bottom. On the downside, below 107.77 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 104.69 low. However, sustained break of 109.46 will dampen our view and bring stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Fall from 114.54 is seen as part of the falling leg from 118.65 (2016 high). Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 98.97 to contain downside to bring reversal. Also, this bearish case will remain the preferred one as long as 114.54 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.07; (P) 135.42; (R1) 136.06; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as sideway consolidation continues. On the downside, break of 134.25 support will indicate short term topping at 136.99. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 131.34 support resistance turned support. Nevertheless, firm break of 136.99 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.64; (P) 146.02; (R1) 146.74; More…

USD/JPY’s rally continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside. Sustained break of 61.8% projection of 129.62 to 145.06 from 137.22 at 146.76 will pave the way to retest 151.93 high. On the downside, below 145.29 minor support will turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.09; (P) 145.52; (R1) 146.19; More…

USD/JPY’s rally from 140.25 resumed by breaking 146.40 and intraday bias is back on the upside. Strong resistance should be seen from 61.8% retracement of 151.89 to 140.25 at 147.4 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 144.34 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 140.25 low. However, firm break of 147.44 will target 151.89 high instead.

In the bigger picture, for now, fall from 151.89 is still seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.89. Another decline through 140.25 will target 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63. Sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). However, firm break of 147.44 fibonacci resistance will dampen this view and bring retest of 151.89 instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.55; (P) 107.02; (R1) 107.64; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 108.04 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. Also, fall from 111.71 is merely a correction that has completed at 106.35. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 109.38 resistance first. On the downside, though, break of 106.35 will target 100% projection projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58 instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.