Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.42; (P) 111.64; (R1) 111.80; More…

USD/JPY dropped sharply to as low as 110.95 so far and breaches near term channel support. With 110.35 support intact, near term outlook remains bullish and rise from 104.69 is still in favor to resume. On the upside, break of 112.13 will target 114.54 resistance next. However, firm break of 110.35 should confirm near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 108.49 support and below.

In the bigger picture, current strong rebound from 104.69 argues that decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.69, after failing 104.62. More importantly, the rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus now turns back to 114.54 resistance, decisive break there will add more credence to this bullish case and target 118.65. This will now be the favored case as long as 110.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.07; (P) 136.97; (R1) 137.64; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range below 138.16 temporary top and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 138.16 will resume the rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 140.15). On the downside, however, firm break of 133.61 support and 133.07 medium term fibonacci level will confirm resumption of whole fall from 151.93.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 medium term could be just a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07 and 55 week EMA (now at 131.85) will set the range for such corrective pattern. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.96; (P) 107.41; (R1) 107.89; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, firm break of 106.91 support will resume whole decline from 111.71. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 100% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58. On the upside, break of 109.38 will suggest that fall from 111.71 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 111.71/112.22 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.32; (P) 107.93; (R1) 108.35; More...

USD/JPY is still bounded in range above 106.91 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 106.91 will resume the fall from 111.71 and target 100% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58. On the upside, break of 109.38 will suggest that fall from 111.71 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 111.71/112.22 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.62; (P) 143.16; (R1) 143.47; More…

USD/JPY is still staying in consolidation from 144.98 and intraday bias remains neutral. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 139.37 resistance turned support. On the upside, break of 144.98 will resume larger up trend to 147.68 long term resistance. Break there will target 161.8% projection of 126.35 to 139.37 from 130.38 at 151.44 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.26; (P) 115.36; (R1) 115.48; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat. Further rally will be expected as long as 113.57 support holds. Break of 115.51 temporary top will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next. However, break of 113.57 will indicate that larger correction is underway, and targets 112.71 support next.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 111.65 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.41; (P) 134.93; (R1) 135.99; More…

USD/JPY’s rally resumes after brief consolidations. Current up trend should target 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 143.29. On the downside, break of 131.34 resistance turned support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.23; (P) 113.50; (R1) 113.94; More…

USD/JPY dips mildly today but stays in range of 111.58/114.94. Intraday bias stays neutral first and outlook is unchanged. Corrective fall from 118.65 could extend lower through 111.58. But we’d still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 114.94 resistance should confirm completion of pull back from 118.65. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 118.65.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.30; (P) 113.82; (R1) 114.50; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 115.49 resistance next. Outlook remains unchanged that correction from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 108.12. Break of 115.49 will resume larger rally from 98.97 to 125.85 high. On the downside, below 113.04 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 115.49 resistance will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.61; (P) 108.80; (R1) 108.95; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. As long as 108.27 support holds, rise from 104.45 remains mildly in favor to resume. On the upside, above 109.20 minor resistance will bring retest of 109.72 resistance first. However, firm break of 108.27 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 106.48 support.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.48; (P) 109.11; (R1) 109.52; More..

USD/JPY is now in consolidation above 104.69 spike low and intraday bias is turned neutral first. More consolidation would be seen but outlook will stay bearish as long as 109.36 minor resistance holds. On the downside, decisive break of 104.62 low will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Fall from 114.54 is seen as another medium term down leg, targeting 98.97/104.62 support zone. For now, we’d expect strong support from there to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.33; (P) 107.70; (R1) 108.24; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 106.91 support will resume whole decline from 111.71. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 100% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58. On the upside, break of 109.38 will suggest that fall from 111.71 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 111.71/112.22 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.04; (P) 109.37; (R1) 109.56; More…

Once again, USD/JPY drew support from 109.10 and recovered. Intraday bias remains neutral first as range trading could continue. On the downside, break of 109.10 will argue that larger fall from 111.65 is resuming. Deeper decline should then be seen to 108.71 support first, and then 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next. On the upside, above 110.44 will turn bias back to the upside for 110.79, and then 111.65 high.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.46; (P) 108.74; (R1) 109.09; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation above 108.10 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 109.82 minor resistance holds, near term outlook remains mildly bearish. Below 108.10 will target 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20. Break will likely resume larger decline from 118.65 for a new low below 104.62. Nonetheless, break of 109.82 will turn focus back to 111.39 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY remains bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). The development. Current deeper than expected fall from 111.39 argues that fall from 118.65 is not finished. Break of 104.62 low would target 98.97 or even below. Though, break of 111.39 will revive the case that fall from 118.65 has completed and turn focus to 114.73 for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.79; (P) 132.35; (R1) 133.18; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat. But further rally is in favor. Above 132.89 will resume the rebound from 127.20 short term bottom to 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64, even just as a correction to the decline from 151.93. Nevertheless, sustained break of 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 130.48) will bring retest of 127.20 low.

In the bigger picture, prior of 55 week EMA (now at 131.39) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong rebound from current level, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 will argue that price actions from 151.93 is merely a corrective pattern. However, rejection by 136.64 will solidify medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.61; (P) 108.95; (R1) 109.18; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 108.25 minor support suggests that a short term top is formed at 109.28, ahead of 109.31 key resistance, on bearish divergence condition. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 106.48 support first. Break there will confirm completion of rebound from 104.45 and bring retest of this low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 109.28/31 holds, in case of recovery. However, decisive break of 109.31 will be an early sign of medium term reversal and target 112.40 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

USD/JPY recovered last week and turned into consolidation above 105.24. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, decisive break 107.67 resistance will indicate near term reversal. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next. But before that, another decline is still mildly in favor. Break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.46; (P) 132.17; (R1) 133.59; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment, and further decline is in favor with 132.99 minor resistance intact. On the downside, break of 129.62 will target a test on 127.20 low. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 151.93. However, firm break of 132.99 will argue that fall from 137.90 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for 137.90.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 127.20 should have completed at 137.90 as a corrective move. The down trend from 151.93 (2022 high) is still in progress. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.32; (P) 144.95; (R1) 145.54; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Rebound from 140.25 could extend through 146.40, but upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 151.89 to 140.25 at 147.44. On the downside, break of 143.41 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 140.25 low.

In the bigger picture, for now, fall from 151.89 is still seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.89. Another decline through 140.25 will target 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63. Sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). However, firm break of 147.44 fibonacci resistance will dampen this view and bring retest of 151.89 instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.92; (P) 109.10; (R1) 109.21; More..

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 108.73 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further decline is in favor as long as 109.65 minor resistance holds. Break of 108.73 will target 107.65 key support. However, break of 109.65 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 110.28 high instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish outlook yet in spite of the rebound from 104.45. The pair is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Rise form 104.45 is seen as a correction and the down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.