USD/JPY’s rebound from 139.57 extended to as high as 153.18 last week but formed a temporary top there and retreat. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations first. Further rally is in favor as long as 151.18 minor support holds. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 will pave the way to retest 161.94 high. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 151.18 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 148.05).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. However, a medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 133.87).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.30; (P) 152.07; (R1) 152.58; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidations below 153.18 temporary top. Further rise is in favor as long as 151.18 minor support holds. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 will extend the rally from 139.57 to retest 161.94 high. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 151.18 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 148.01).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.30; (P) 152.07; (R1) 152.58; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral as a temporary top was formed at 153.17, ahead of 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 151.18 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 148.01). Nevertheless, decisive break of 153.39 will extend the rally from 139.57 to retest 161.94 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.45; (P) 152.32; (R1) 153.64; More…

Further rally is in favor in USD/JPY with 151.18 minor support intact, despite loss of momentum as seen in 4H MACD. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 will extend the rally from 139.57 to retest 161.94 high. On the downside, below 151.18 minor support indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.45; (P) 152.32; (R1) 153.64; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside at this point. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 will extend the rally from 139.57 to retest 161.94 high. On the downside, below 151.18 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally will now remain in favor as long as 55 D EMA (now at 148.02) holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.66; (P) 150.93; (R1) 151.36; More…

USD/JPY accelerates to as high as 153.18 so far and intraday bias stays on the upside. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 will pave the way to retest 161.94 high. On the downside, below 151.18 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally will now remain in favor as long as 55 D EMA (now at 147.85) holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.66; (P) 150.93; (R1) 151.36; More…

USD/JPY’s rally from 139.57 accelerates higher today, and intraday bias stays on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39. Decisive break there will pave the way to retest 161.94 high. On the downside, below 150.60 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally will now remain in favor as long as 55 D EMA (now at 147.85) holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.66; (P) 150.27; (R1) 151.46; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside, as rise from 139.57 is in progress. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39. On the downside, below 149.08 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. But still, further rally is in favor as long as 146.48 resistance turned support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.66; (P) 150.27; (R1) 151.46; More…

USD/JPY’s rally from 139.57 resumed after brief consolidations, and re-accelerates. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39. On the downside, below 149.08 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. But still, further rally is in favor as long as 146.48 resistance turned support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.19; (P) 149.74; (R1) 150.10; More…

USD/JPY recovered mildly ahead of 4H MACD, but stays below 150.31 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rally is expected as long as 146.47 resistance turned support holds. Above 150.31 will resume the rebound from 139.57 to 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39. However, break of 146.48 resistance turned support will indicate that rebound from 139.57 has already completed.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.19; (P) 149.74; (R1) 150.10; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat and some consolidations would be seen first. Further rally is expected as long as 146.47 resistance turned support holds. Above 150.31 will resume the rebound from 139.57 to 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39. However, break of 146.48 resistance turned support will indicate that rebound from 139.57 has already completed.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

USD/JPY edged higher last week even though it continued to lose upside momentum, as seen in 4H MACD. Further rally is expected as long as 148.84 minor support holds, towards 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39. However, break of 148.84 will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 146.48 resistance turned support will indicate that rebound from 139.57 has already completed.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. However, a medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 133.73).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.54; (P) 149.93; (R1) 150.62; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Rise from 139.57 is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 next. On the downside, below 148.84 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 146.48 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.54; (P) 149.93; (R1) 150.62; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the upside with break of 149.97 temporary top. Current rise from 139.57 should target 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 next. On the downside, below 148.84 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 146.48 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.08; (P) 149.44; (R1) 150.02; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations could still be seen. Further rally is expected with 146.48 resistance turned support intact. Above 149.97 will resume the rise from 139.57 to 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 next. However, firm break of 146.48 will argue that such rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 139.57 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.08; (P) 149.44; (R1) 150.02; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidations below 149.97 temporary top. Further rally is expected with 146.48 resistance turned support intact. Above 149.97 will resume the rise from 139.57 to 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 next. However, firm break of 146.48 will argue that such rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 139.57 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.74; (P) 149.33; (R1) 149.80; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation below 149.97 temporary top and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected with 146.48 resistance turned support intact. Above 149.97 will resume the rise from 139.57 to 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 next. However, firm break of 146.48 will argue that such rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 139.57 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

• USDJPY extends consolidation around August’s bar
• Technical signals weaken, cannot warrant a bullish trend reversal
• US retail sales, jobless claims due on Thursday at 12:30 GMT

USDJPY reached a two-month high of 149.96, but it couldn’t hold its strength above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 149.40 on Tuesday.

Over the past few days, the pair has been struggling for a bullish breakout, leaving investors wondering whether it’s time for a negative pivot. The slowdown in the technical indicators reflects persisting reluctance among traders as the price hovers around August’s bar. Note that the MACD has reached its ceiling from July and April.

Still, with the RSI hanging comfortably above its 50 neutral mark and the 20-day EMA set to cross above the 50-day EMA, buying appetite may not entirely disappear. In this case, the pair may again attempt to stretch towards the 150.75-151.55 border. The 50% Fibonacci retracement of the July-September downtrend and the crucial support-turned-resistance line from the 2023 bottom are in that price neighborhood. Hence, a breach of that wall could excite buyers, speeding up the recovery process towards the 61.8% Fibonacci mark of 153.40 and the 154.00 barrier. Another success there could trigger a faster rally towards the 157.00 round level.

Should the bears take charge immediately, the 38.2% Fibonacci of 148.11 may provide some protection ahead of the 20- and 50-day SMAs at 147.00. A move lower could stall within the 144.85-145.60 territory formed by the 23.6% Fibonacci and the ascending line from July. If selling forces persist, they could forcefully press the price towards the 141.60 base.

In brief, USDJPY is trading near a decisive territory that could determine its next direction. For a bullish trend reversal, the pair must close above August’s bar of 149.40 and more importantly sustain buying interest above 151.55.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.74; (P) 149.33; (R1) 149.80; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 149.97 temporary top. Further rally is expected with 146.48 resistance turned support intact. Above 149.97 will resume the rise from 139.57 to 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 next. However, firm break of 146.48 will argue that such rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 139.57 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.20; (P) 149.59; (R1) 150.15; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral again with current retreat. Another rise is expected for now, and break of 149.97 will resume the rise from 139.57 to 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 next. However, firm break of 146.48 will argue that such rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 139.57 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.