Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.42; (P) 109.68; (R1) 109.88; More…

USD/JPY drops to as low as 108.87 so far today. Break of 109.02 support indicates resumption of fall from 112.40. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63 next. Sustained trading below 107.63 will pave the way to retest 104.69 low. On the upside, break of 109.92 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Current development suggests that rebound from 104.69 is only a corrective move. And fall from 118.65 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 104.69 will extend the down trend towards 98.97 support (2016 low). For now, we’d expect strong support above there to bring rebound.

USD/JPY stayed in range of 105.10/107.05 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. n the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case that pull back fall from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 104.18. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 109.85 resistance. On the downside, break of 105.10 will bring retest 104.18 support first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.70; (P) 146.12; (R1) 146.68; More…

USD/JPY is extending the consolidation from 147.36 and intraday bias remains neutral. As long as 144.52 support holds, further rally remains in favor. Above 147.36 will resume the rise from 127.20 to retest 151.93 high. On the downside, however, firm break of 144.52 should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 142.96).

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.55; (P) 134.00; (R1) 134.40; More…

USD/JPY’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Rise from 127.20 short term bottom should target 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64. Strong resistance could be seen there to complete the corrective rise. On the downside, break of 133.59 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, prior of 55 week EMA (now at 131.47) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong rebound from current level, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 will argue that price actions from 151.93 is merely a corrective pattern. However, rejection by 136.64 will solidify medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.23; (P) 111.53; (R1) 111.98; More…

USD/JPY retreats notably after hitting 111.82 and with 4 hour MACD crossed below signa line, intraday bias is turned neutral first. We’re holding on to the bullish case as long as 110.93 minor support holds. That is, correction from 113.17 should have completed at 109.76 already. On the upside, above 111.82 will target 112.14 resistance first. Break there should bring retest of 113.17 high. On the downside, however, break of 110.93 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 109.76 instead.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.09; (P) 114.44; (R1) 114.67; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays mildly on the downside for the moment, for 113.47 support. Break there will resume the fall from 112.52 structural support. Considering bearish divergence condition in in daily MACD, further break of 112.52 will confirm that it’s already in correction to the up trend from 102.58. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 116.34 at 111.08. On the upside, break of 115.05 will resume the rebound from 113.47. But a break of 116.34 high is not expected even in this case.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. However, firm break of 112.52 support will dampen this bullish case and we’ll assess the outlook based on subsequent price actions later.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.42; (P) 110.70; (R1) 110.90; More…

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral first. Further rally is still expected with 109.70 support intact. Larger up trend from 102.58 might be resuming. Above 111.10 will target 111.71 key resistance next. Firm break there will carry larger implication. Next target is 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 110.95 from 107.47 at 112.64 next. On the downside, however, break of 109.70 support will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.83; (P) 109.08; (R1) 109.29; More…

USD/JPY’s fall form 111.65 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18. Sustained break there will target 61.8% retracement at 107.89 next. On the upside, above 109.35 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 110.58 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Firm break of 107.47 will argue that pattern from 101.18 has started another falling leg already. Deeper decline could be seen back to 101.18/102.58 support zone. For now, outlook won’t turn bullish as long as 111.71 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 126.13; (P) 127.10; (R1) 127.85; More…

USD/JPY’s correction from 131.34 could still extend lower. But downside should be contained by 125.09 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 114.40 to 131.34 at 124.86) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 129.77 minor resistance will suggest that the correction is finished and bring retest of 131.34.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.44; (P) 111.93; (R1) 112.38; More…

Breach of 111.54 suggests that fall from 114.49 is resuming. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper decline to 108.81 support. Break there will extend the whole correction from 118.65 to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 112.41 will turn focus back to 114.49 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

USD/JPY’s recovery ended at 142.24 after failing to sustain above 4 hour 55 EMA. But downside was contained above 137.66 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Outlook stays bearish as long as 142.24 resistance holds. Break of 137.66 will resume the fall from 151.93 to 100% projection of 146.78 to 137.66 from 142.24 at 133.12, which is close to 133.07 medium term fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 131.22).

In the long term picture, rise from 102.58, as part of the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) was put to a halt at 151.93, just ahead of 100% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 102.58 at 152.87. There is no clear sign of long term reversal yet. Such up trend is expected to resume at a later stage, as long as 125.85 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.07; (P) 106.28; (R1) 106.54; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 105.04 is extending. With 107.09 minor resistance intact, further decline is in favor. On the downside, break of 105.04 will resume larger decline from 112.40 to 104.69 low. Break will target 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. On the upside, though, break of 107.09 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. In this case, stronger rebound would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.75).

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.17; (P) 143.56; (R1) 144.57; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral first. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 139.37 resistance turned support. On the upside, break of 144.98 will resume larger up trend to 147.68 long term resistance. Break there will target 161.8% projection of 126.35 to 139.37 from 130.38 at 151.44 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.89; (P) 146.26; (R1) 146.79; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside for the moment. Sustained break of 61.8% projection of 129.62 to 145.06 from 137.22 at 146.76 will pave the way to retest 151.93 high. For now, outlook will stays cautiously bullish as long as 144.52 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.62; (P) 106.95; (R1) 107.24; More...

USD/JPY recovers today with a break of 107.24 minor resistance. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, below 106.63 will target 106.07. Break there will extend the whole pattern from 111.71 and target 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20. On the upside, however, break of 108.16 will resume the rebound from 106.07 and target 109.85 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.60; (P) 110.76; (R1) 110.88; More….

USD/JPY’s recovery was limited by 4 hour 55 EMA and retreated. But it’s staying above 109.83 temporary low and intraday bias stays neutral first. The consolidation from 109.83 might extend and another rise cannot be ruled out. But after all, near term outlook stays bearish as long as 112.18 resistance holds and deeper fall is expected. Break of 109.83 will target 108.81 support first. Break there will resume whole correction from 118.65 and target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 112.18 resistance will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 114.49 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.33; (P) 147.23; (R1) 147.96; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the downside at this point. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 150.87 at 146.81 will argue that fall from 150.87 is reversing the whole rally from 140.25. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 144.30 and below. Nevertheless, strong support from 146.81, followed by break of 148.29 minor resistance resistance, will argue that fall from 150.87 is merely a correction, which has completed already.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that price action from 151.89 (2023 high) are correction to up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). The question is whether this correction has completed at 140.25, or extending with fall from 150.87 as the third leg. Sustained break of above mentioned 146.81 fibonacci level will favor the latter case. But even so, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 139.54.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.34; (P) 153.89; (R1) 154.83; More…

USD/JPY’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current up trend should target 155.20 fibonacci projection level next. On the downside, below 154.12 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. Outlook will now remain bullish as long as 146.47 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.80; (P) 114.13; (R1) 114.59; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside for 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 114.71. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 118.18 next. On the downside, break of 113.20 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.15; (P) 134.83; (R1) 135.74; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral first. Overall, corrective pattern from 139.37 will extend further. On the upside, above 135.57 will resume the rebound to retest 139.37 high. But a decisive break there is not expected this time. On the downside, below 131.72 will resume the fall from 139.37 through 130.38 support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 139.37 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 122.70) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.