Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.11; (P) 112.73; (R1) 113.42; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment and some consolidations could be seen above 112.04 temporary low. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But choppy decline is from 118.65 is seen as a corrective move. Hence, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside an bring rebound. On the upside, above 115.36 resistance will argue that such correction is finished and turn bias to the upside for 118.65. Break will resume whole rise from 98.97 and target 125.85 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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USD/JPY’s rise accelerated to as high as 105.76 last week but formed a temporary top there. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Further rally is expected as long as 104.39 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 105.76 will resume the rebound from 102.58, for 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 106.06.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.90) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 1110.31).

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.44; (P) 110.19; (R1) 110.83; More…

USD/JPY’s fall extends to as low as 109.12 in early US session. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 108.82 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 108.80). For now, we’d still expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 110.32 minor resistance will argue that the pull back is completed. And, in that case, retest of 111.39 high should be seen. But, decisive break there is now needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, more corrective trading would be seen in near term.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Rise from 104.62 is possibly resuming the up trend from 98.97 (2016 low). This will be the preferred case as long as108.82 support holds. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will confirm our view and target 118.65 and above. However, decisive break of 108.82 will dampen the bullish outlook and revive the case of a break of 104.62 low before bottoming.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.40; (P) 108.61; (R1) 108.93; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 106.78 extended higher and breached 108.80 resistance. Sustained trading above there will confirm short term bottoming at 106.78. Further rise should then been seen to 110.67 resistance next. However, on the downside, break of 108.28 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 107.53 support and then 106.78 low.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.27; (P) 109.61; (R1) 110.01; More…

Further rise is mildly in favor in USD/JPY for 110.95 high. Break there will resume larger rally from 102.58. On the downside, break of 108.99 will extend the correction to 108.40 support and below. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 107.75 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the corrective down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed at 101.18. Firm break of 112.22 resistance should confirms this bullish case. A medium term up trend could then has started for 100% projection of 101.18 to 111.71 from 102.58 at 113.11 and then 161.8% projection at 119.61. However, rejection by 111.71, followed by sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 107.74), will dampen the bullish view and keep medium term outlook neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.99; (P) 138.57; (R1) 139.41; More…

Strong resistance is expected from 55 4H EMA (now at 139.94) to complete the recovery from 137.22. Break of 137.22 and sustained trading below 137.90 resistance turned support will confirm the larger bearish case, and target 127.20 and below. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 4H EMA will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 145.06 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Sustained break of 137.90 resistance turned support should confirm this case and target 127.20 (2023 low) and below. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 145.06 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.79; (P) 110.99; (R1) 111.18; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as range trading continues. Another rise would remain mildly in favor with 110.41 support intact. On the upside, sustained break of 111.71 will carry larger implication. Next target is 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 110.95 from 107.47 at 112.64. However, break of 110.41 will indicate short term topping and bring pull back 55 day EMA (now at 109.74).

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.58; (P) 149.73; (R1) 150.02; More…

USD/JPY’s rally is in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rise from 127.20 should target a retest on 151.93 high next. On the downside, break of 148.51 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.96; (P) 150.18; (R1) 150.50; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 150.87 is extending. In case of another retreat, downside should be contained by 148.79 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Above 150.87 will resume the rise from 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will confirm larger up trend resumption of 155.50 projection level next. However, firm break of 148.79 will turn bias to the downside for 145.88 support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as a correction to the rally from 127.20, which might have completed at 140.25 already. Firm break of 151.89/93 resistance zone will confirm up trend resumption, and next target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.50. This will now remain the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.77; (P) 150.78; (R1) 151.39; More…

USD/JPY recovers today as range trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further rally is in favor as long as 149.17 support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 151.93 resistance will confirm resumption of long term up trend. Next target will be 157.69 projection level. However, firm break of 149.17 will be a sign of bearish reversal and bring deeper fall to 147.28 support first.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is now on 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will argue that rise from 127.20 has completed, and turn outlook bearish for 137.22 support and below. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2021 low) to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.91; (P) 155.15; (R1) 155.58; More…

USD/JPY’s rally accelerates today and breaks through 155.20 fibonacci level. There is no sign of topping yet. Intraday bias stays on the upside at this point. Sustained trading above 155.20 will pave the way 100% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 157.09. For now, break of 154.77 resistance turned support is needed to indicate short term toping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. Firm there will target 100% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 157.09., Outlook will remain bullish as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 117.09; (P) 117.84; (R1) 118.49; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral with focus on 118.65 resistance. Break will confirm resumption of whole rise from 98.97. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 125.85 high. We’d be cautious on topping at 125.85 on first attempt. In case of another retreat, downside should be contained by 114.76 support and bring rally resumption finally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the corrective is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.71; (P) 130.09; (R1) 130.57; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 131.24. Near term outlook remains bullish with 126.91 support intact. Break of 131.24 will resume recent up trend to 261.8% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 133.26. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 126.91 will confirm short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for a correction.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.37; (P) 109.47; (R1) 109.60; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Rise form 104.45 is still in progress and should target 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50 next. On the downside, below 109.20 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 108.24 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.33; (P) 110.89; (R1) 111.25; More….

USD/JPY is still bounded in range of 110.10/112.19 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 110.10 will resume the whole corrective decline from 118.65 and target 50% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 108.81. On the upside, however, break of 112.19 resistance will indicate short term reversal and turn bias back to the upside for 115.49 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Nonetheless, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.16) will extend the consolidation from 125.85 with another fall through 98.97 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.45; (P) 106.11; (R1) 106.58; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. With 107.09 minor resistance intact, further decline is in favor. On the downside, break of 105.04 will resume larger decline from 112.40 to 104.69 low. Break will target 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. On the upside, though, break of 107.09 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. In this case, stronger rebound would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.86).

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

USD/JPY’s retreat from 106.10 extended lower last week but it stayed above 104.94 support. Initial bias remains neutral first and another rise is still in favor. On the upside, break of 106.10 will resume the rebound from 104.00 for 106.94 resistance. Sustained break there should confirm completion of the whole decline from 111.71. On the downside, break of 104.94 support will revive near term bearishness and target a test on 104.00 low instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

USD/JPY rebounded strongly last week and initial bias stays on the upside this week. Decisive break of 131.34 resistance will confirm larger up trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81. On the downside, below 129.50 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

In the long term picture, the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) has just resumed. First target at 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 was already met. Next is 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high).

USD/JPY dropped to as low as 106.57 as corrective pattern from 111.71 extended with a third leg. As a temporary low was formed, initial bias is neutral this week first. Further decline is mildly in favor and break of 106.57 will target 105.98 support and below. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 108.24 will turn bias back to the upside for 109.85 resistance.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Break of 105.98 support could extend the down trend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.58; (P) 128.28; (R1) 129.58; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with breach of 127.76 minor support. Deeper pull back could be seen. But downside should be contained by 125.09 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 129.39 will resume larger up trend to 130.04 long term projection level next.

In the bigger picture, the break of 125.85 resistance (2015 high) suggests that whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is resuming. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. Sustained break there wave the way to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.