Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.34; (P) 112.88; (R1) 113.17; More…

USD/JPY’s strong break of 112.31 minor support argues that a short term top is formed at 113.43, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Also, this suggests that the pair is rejected by medium term channel resistance. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 111.26 first). Sustained break there will bring retest of 107.31. For now, risk will stays on the downside as long as 113.43 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.97; (P) 105.22; (R1) 105.38; More...

USD/JPY’s breach of 104.73 minor support argues that rebound from 103.17 might have completed at 105.67, ahead of 106.10 resistance. It’s also back below 55 day EMA, staying well inside near term falling channel. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 103.17 low. Break will resume whole decline from 111.71. On the upside, firm break of 106.10 resistance should confirm completion of fall from 111.71, and turn outlook bullish for further rally.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance will suggest that the decline from 111.71 has completed. Focus will then be back to this resistance to signal medium term reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.04; (P) 106.36; (R1) 106.88; More..

USD/JPY’s rally from 102.58 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rally should target 61.8% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 108.22. Sustained break there will raise the chance of larger bullish reversal, and target 111.71 resistance. On the downside, below 105.84 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.90) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.02).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.53; (P) 156.50; (R1) 157.06; More….

USD/JPY’s break of 156.36 minor support argues that rebound from 151.86 has possibly completed with three waves up to 157.70. Corrective pattern from 160.20 might have started the third leg already. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 153.59 support first. Firm break there will solidify this case and target 151.86 support and below. For now, rise will stay on the downside as long as 157.70 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.34; (P) 114.59; (R1) 115.09; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current up trend from 102.58 will target 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18. On the downside, break of 113.74 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 111.65 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.37; (P) 111.65; (R1) 112.09; More….

USD/JPY rises to as high as 112.30 so far as the rebound from 108.12 resumes. The current development indicates that corrective decline from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 108.12. Further rally would be seen to 115.49 resistance first. Break will target 118.65 high. On the downside, break of 110.86 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 115.49 resistance will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.69; (P) 109.82; (R1) 111.74; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 112.22 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, break of 106.75 support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 101.18 low instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) is still in progress. It’s seen as part of a larger consolidative pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). Such decline could could extend through 98.97 (2016 low). For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 112.22 resistance holds, even in case of rebound. However, break of 112.22 will be a strong sign on medium term bullish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.69; (P) 131.84; (R1) 132.68; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays mildly on the downside for the moment as fall from 137.90 is in progress. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 137.90 at 131.28 will pave the way to retest 127.20 low next. On the upside, however, break of 132.99 resistance will suggest short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 127.20 should have completed at 137.90 as a corrective move, with strong break of 55 day EMA. The down trend from 151.93 (2022 high) is not over yet. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.65; (P) 140.57; (R1) 141.21; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. With 139.27 support intact, further rally is expected. Current rise from 127.20 should now target 142.48 fibonacci level next. Nevertheless, break of 139.27 will now indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Stronger rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 142.48. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 151.93. On the downside, however, decisive break of 137.90 resistance turned support will now be the first indicate that this rebound from 127.20 has completed already.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.41; (P) 134.99; (R1) 135.62; More…

USD/JPY is losing some upside momentum but retreat is so far shallow. Intraday bias stays on the upside and rise from 130.38 should target a test on 139.37 high. Strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside, to bring another fall, as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 139.37. On the downside, below 132.50 minor support will resume the fall from 139.37 towards 126.35 structural support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 139.37 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 121.84) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.72; (P) 105.83; (R1) 106.47; More...

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is in favor as long as 107.05 resistance holds. Break of 105.10 will bring retest of 104.18 support first. Further break will resume whole decline from 111.71. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case of near term reversal and bring stronger rally.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.33; (P) 147.92; (R1) 148.75; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside, as rise from 140.25 is in progress. Next target is 151.89/93 key resistance zone next. On the downside, below 147.06 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 55 D EMA (now at 145.83) holds.

In the bigger picture, stronger than expected rebound from 140.25 dampened the original bearish review. Strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 141.89) is also a medium term bullish sign. Fall from 151.89 could be a correction to rise from 127.20 only. Decisive break of 151.89/93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. This will now be the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.51; (P) 108.62; (R1) 108.76; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point and more sideway trading could be seen. On the upside, break of 109.48 resistance will resume whole rise from 104.45 and target trend line resistance (now at 111.79). On the downside, break of 108.24 support will revive the case of short term reversal. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 107.88 support to confirm.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.39; (P) 110.56; (R1) 110.82; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as it’s bounded in range of 110.27/111.13. On the downside, below 110.27 will bring deeper fall to 109.367 support. Break there will confirm that corrective pattern from 111.39 has started the third leg. And USD/JPY should target 108.10, and possibly below. In that case, we’d expect downside to be contained by 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20. On the upside, above 111.13 will bring retest of 111.39 instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.51; (P) 103.67; (R1) 103.78; More..

USD/JPY’s rebound from 103.31 extends higher today but stays below 104.39 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 104.39 and sustained trading above the channel resistance will argue that the down trend from 111.71 has finally completed. Stronger rise would be seen to 105.67 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, break of 103.31 will retain near term bearishness and bring retest of 102.58 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 105.67 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.15; (P) 111.40; (R1) 111.82; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remain son the upside for the moment despite the shallow retreat. Current rise from 107.31 should target medium term channel resistance (now at 112.91). Sustained break there will argue that whole correction from 118.65 has completed too. In that case, further rise should be seen to 114.49 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, break of 109.54 support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

USD/JPY remains bounded in range of 105.10/107.05 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revise the case that pull back fall from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 104.18. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 109.85 resistance. On the downside, break of 105.10 will bring retest 104.18 support first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.70; (P) 111.92; (R1) 112.07; More…

Despite a brief retreat, outlook in USD/JPY is unchanged and further rise is expected. Current rebound from 109.76 should target 100% projection of 109.76 to 111.82 from 110.37 at 112.43 first. Break will target a test on 113.17 high. On the downside, break of 111.10, however, will argue that the rebound is completed. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 110.37 support.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

USD/JPY’s strong rebound to 110.47 last week indicates short term bottoming at 108.27. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 111.47 resistance first. Sustained break there will also have 55 day EMA (now at 111.39) firmly taken out. In such case, further rise would be seen back to 113.38/114.73 resistance zone. On the downside, however, below 109.22 minor support will turn focus back to 108.27 instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. There is risk of dropping further to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. But this level should provide strong support to contain downside and bring resumption of rise from 98.97. However, sustained break of 106.48 will now likely send USD/JPY through 98.97 to resume the corrective fall from 125.85 (2015 high).

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.03; (P) 158.24; (R1) 159.12; More…

Fall from 161.94 is seen as correcting the whole five-wave rally from 140.25. Deeper decline is in favor and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 157.67) will affirm this bearish case. Next target will be 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 161.94 at 163.65. Nevertheless, break of 159.44 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, as long as 151.89 resistance turned support holds, long term up trend could still continue through 161.94 at a later stage. Next target will depend on the depth of the current correction from 161.94. However, sustained break of 151.89 will argue that larger scale correction or trend reversal is underway.