Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.42; (P) 112.74; (R1) 113.06; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidative trading in tight range below 113.25 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 111.46 minor support holds, further rise is in favor. Sustained break of medium term channel resistance will argue that correction from 118.65 is already completed with three waves down to 107.31. Break of 114.49 will confirm this bullish case and target a test on 118.65 next. On the downside, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 111.46 will suggest rejection from the channel resistance and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.36; (P) 110.84; (R1) 111.14; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Current decline from 114.49 should extend to 108.81 support first. Break there will resume whole correction from 118.65 and target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 112.18 resistance will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.49 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.97; (P) 132.65; (R1) 133.77; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside at this point. Rebound from 127.20 short term bottom should extend to 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64, even as a correction to the decline from 151.39. On the downside, break of 131.49 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, prior of 55 week EMA (now at 131.47) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong rebound from current level, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 will argue that price actions from 151.93 is merely a corrective pattern. However, rejection by 136.64 will solidify medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.62; (P) 147.01; (R1) 147.80; More…

USD/JPY’s outlook is unchanged as consolidation from 151.93 is extending. Deeper fall might be seen but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 130.38 to 151.93 at 143.69 to bring rebound. Upside of rally attempt should be limited by 151.39 resistance.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is no clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 140.33 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.38; (P) 133.10; (R1) 134.49; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as further decline is expected with 135.10 resistance intact. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 137.90 at 131.28 will pave the way to retest 127.20 low. However, break of 135.10 will argue that fall from 137.90 is completed and turn bias back to the upside for retesting this high.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 127.20 should have completed at 137.90 as a corrective move, with strong break of 55 day EMA. The down trend from 151.93 (2022 high) is not over yet. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.62; (P) 106.20; (R1) 106.70; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 105.04 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 107.09 minor resistance intact, further decline is in favor. On the downside, break of 105.04 will resume larger decline from 112.40 to 104.69 low. Break will target 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. On the upside, though, break of 107.09 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. In this case, stronger rebound would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.86).

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.98; (P) 149.53; (R1) 149.97; More…

USD/JPY’s decline accelerates to as low as 147.58 so far. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 150.87 at 146.81. Sustained break of 146.81 will argue that fall from 150.87 is reversing the whole rally from 140.25. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 144.30 and below. Nevertheless, strong support from 146.81, followed by break of 149.20 resistance, will argue that fall from 150.87 is merely a correction, which has completed already.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed up as fall from 150.87 accelerates lower. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 148.45) will open up the case that corrective pattern from 151.89 (2023 high) is extending, with fall from 150.87 as the third leg. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 140.25 support or below. Nevertheless, strong bounce from 55 D EMA will retain near term bullishness for at least another take on 151.89.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.85; (P) 146.48; (R1) 147.07; More…

USD/JPY’s strong rebound today maintains its near term bullishness. Focus is turning to 148.79 resistance. Firm break there will confirm that correction has completed at 145.88, and rise from 140.25 would then resume to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. In case of retreat, further rally will now remain in favor as long as 145.88 support holds.

In the bigger picture, stronger than expected rebound from 140.25 dampened the original bearish review. Strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 142.49) is also a medium term bullish sign. Fall from 151.89 could be a correction to rise from 127.20 only. Decisive break of 151.89/93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. This will now be the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

USD/JPY turned into consolidation after edging higher to 140.90 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further rally is expected as long as 138.22 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 140.90 will resume larger rise from 127.20 to 142.48 fibonacci level. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 138.22 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 136.12).

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Stronger rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 151.93. On the downside, however, break of 133.73 support will argue that the pattern could have started the third leg through 127.20 low.

In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.57; (P) 103.90; (R1) 104.07; More...

Further decline is expected in USD/JPY with 104.56 minor resistance intact, to retest 103.17 low. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 111.71. However, break of 104.56 will turn bias back to the upside for 105.67 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.38; (P) 155.65; (R1) 156.02; More…

Further rise is mildly in favor in USD/JPY despite loss of upside momentum as seen in 4H MACD. Rebound from 151.86, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20, could extend towards 157.98 resistance. On the downside, break of 154.23 will suggest that the third leg has started, and turn bias back to the downside for 151.86 support.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.04; (P) 113.30; (R1) 113.75; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, sustained break of 112.71 will argue that it’s already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57. On the upside, break of 113.94 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 115.51 high instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.55; (P) 104.81; (R1) 105.22; More...

USD/JPY’s rebound from 104.00 continues today and focus is back on 105.20 support turned resistance. Decisive break there would indicate short term bottoming. Stronger rebound would be seen back to 106.94 resistance. Nevertheless, rejection by 105.20 will maintain near term bearishness for a break through 104.00 at a later stage.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.90; (P) 114.67; (R1) 115.22; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remain son the downside for the moment. Correction from 118.65 short term top is expected to extend lower to 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. At this point, we’d expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 116.86 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 118.65 high. However, sustained break of 111.13 will argue that whole rise from 98.97 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 106.48 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.50; (P) 134.78; (R1) 135.19; More…

USD/JPY’s rally continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside. But strong resistance could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 to complete the corrective rebound from 127.20. On the downside, break of 133.91 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 129.79/132.89 support zone.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 55 week EMA (now at 131.54) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong rebound from current level, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 will argue that price actions from 151.93 is merely a corrective pattern. However, rejection by 136.64 will solidify medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.34; (P) 127.70; (R1) 128.25; More…

USD/JPY’s correction from 131.34 is still in progress and deeper fall could be seen to 125.09 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 114.40 to 131.34 at 124.86). But strong support is expected from there to contain downside to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 129.77 minor resistance will suggest that the correction is finished and bring retest of 131.34.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.04; (P) 110.62; (R1) 111.65; More….

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Sustained break of 111.58 support turned resistance will indicate that fall from 118.65 is merely a corrective move and has completed. Outlook will then be turned bullish for 115.49 resistance and above. On the downside, break of 109.58 minor support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound from 108.12. Otherwise, further rally is still in favor even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that it’s not completed yet and is extending. In case of deeper decline, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.28; (P) 160.84; (R1) 161.35; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected with 160.25 minor support intact. On the upside, break of 161.94 temporary top will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 146.47 to 160.20 from 154.53 at 163.01. Nevertheless, break of 160.25 will turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is still in progress. Further rise is expected as long as 154.53 support holds. Next target is 100% projection of 127.20 (2023 low) to 151.89 (2023 high) from 140.25 at 164.94.

USD/JPY’s down trend continued last week and reached as low as 105.54. A temporary low was formed with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. Initial bias is neutral this week for consolidation first. But recovery should be limited below 108.72 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 105.54 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

USD/JPY’s up trend resumed last week and hit as high as 116.34. But a temporary top was formed ahead of 61.8% projection of 109.11 to 115.51 from 112.52 at 116.47. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some consolidations. Downside should be contained well above 114.26 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, firm break of 116.47 will pave the way to 100% projection at 118.90, which is close to 118.65 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 112.52 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.