Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.34; (P) 108.78; (R1) 109.06; More..

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as focus remains on 108.27 support. As long as this support holds, rise form 104.45 remains mildly in favor to resume. On the upside, above 109.20 minor resistance will bring retest of 109.72 resistance first. However, firm break of 108.27 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 106.48 support.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.32; (P) 110.93; (R1) 111.34; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 110.68 minor support suggests that fall from 111.82 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the downside for deeper decline. For now, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 113.17 has completed at 109.76. We’d continue to expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 111.75/82 will target a test on 113.17 high. However, break of 109.76 will put focus on 109.36 key support level

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.88; (P) 110.10; (R1) 110.51; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound from 108.71 to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.48; (P) 147.71; (R1) 148.09; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. Current rise is part of the whole rally from 127.20, and should target 151.93 high. On the downside, below 147.00 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 145.88 support holds.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by break of 137.22 support will indicate that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.59; (P) 137.99; (R1) 138.61; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. Consolidation form 139.37 is still in progress. Downside of retreat should be contained by 134.73 support. On the upside, break of 139.37 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.11; (P) 104.33; (R1) 104.56; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further decline is expected with 105.05 resistance intact. On the downside, firm break of 104.00 will resume larger decline from 111.71, towards 101.18 key support. However, firm break of 105.05 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 106.10 resistance.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.36; (P) 113.65; (R1) 114.00; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, sustained break of 112.71 will argue that it’s already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57. On the upside, break of 113.94 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 115.51 high instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.