Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.52; (P) 109.82; (R1) 110.33; More…

Break of 110.26 minor resistance suggests that rebound from 108.10 has resumed. Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned back to the upside for 111.39 resistance first. Decisive break there will resume the whole rebound from 104.62. On the downside, break of 109.18 will extend the consolidation from 111.39 with another decline towards 108.10 support.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

USD/JPY edged higher to 105.80 last week but retreat sharply since then. Though, downside is held above 104.92 minor support. Initial bias is neutral this week first. on the upside, break of 105.80 will resume the rebound from 104.00 to 106.94 resistance next. on the downside, break of 104.92 will suggest completion of rebound from 104.00. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting this low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

USD/JPY rebounded strong last week, after drawing support from 55 day EMA. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 108.42 minor support holds, to 109.95 resistance first. Break there will target 110.95 high next. Nevertheless, break of 108.42 minor support will turn bias to the downside, to resume the fall from 110.95 through 107.47.

In the bigger picture, rise from 102.58 might have completed at 110.95. But strong support from 55 day EMA retains near term bullish for the pair. Break of 110.95 resistance will carry larger bullish implications and target 112.22 resistance next. Though, break of 107.47 support will shift favor to the case of long term sideway trading between 101.18/111.71.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.97; (P) 130.27; (R1) 130.75; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 131.34 is extending. Further is expected as long as 128.61 support holds. Above 131.34 will target 261.8% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 133.26. However, firm break of 128.61 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.30 (P) 151.45; (R1) 151.68; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside at this point. Immediate focus is on 151.93 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of long term up trend. Next target will be 157.69 projection level. On the downside, below 151.21 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 149.17 support holds, even in case of deep retreat.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is now on 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will argue that rise from 127.20 has completed, and turn outlook bearish for 137.22 support and below. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2021 low) to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 126.13; (P) 127.10; (R1) 127.85; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as correction from 131.34 is in progress. Deeper decline could be seen. But downside should be contained by 125.09 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 114.40 to 131.34 at 124.86) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 129.77 minor resistance will suggest that the correction is finished and bring retest of 131.34.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.86; (P) 140.66; (R1) 141.16; More…

USD/JPY reaches as low as 138.75 so far today as fall from 145.06 continues today. Next target is 137.90 resistance turned support. Decisive break there will confirm the larger bearish case. On the upside, above 142.06 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, current downside acceleration, as seen in daily MACD, argues that fall from 145.06 is already the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Sustained break of 137.90 resistance turned support should confirm this case and target 127.20 (2023 low) and below. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 145.06 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.26; (P) 148.97; (R1) 149.40; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. Fall from 151.89 should be resuming, and should target 147.14 support first. Further break of 61.8% projection of 151.89 to 147.14 from 149.66 at 146.72will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.91, which is close to 145.06 key resistance turned support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 149.66 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 (2023 low) is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Decisive break of 145.06 resistance turned support will confirm that this second leg has completed, after rejection by 151.93. Deeper fall would be seen through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. Nevertheless strong bounce from 145.06 will retain medium term bullishness for another test on 151.93 at a later stage.

USD/JPY attempted for a recovery last week but upside was limited well below 105.67 resistance. Initial bias stays neutral this week. Also, it’s staying well inside falling channel, and below 55 day EMA, keeping near term outlook bearish. On the downside, break of 103.65 will target 103.17 low for resuming larger down trend from 111.71.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

USD/JPY’s rise form 102.58 resumed last week by breaking through 106.21. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 61.8% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 108.22. Sustained break there will raise the chance of larger bullish reversal, and target 111.71 resistance. On the downside, below 105.84 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.90) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.02).

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 118.62; (P) 119.01; (R1) 119.55; More…

USD/JPY’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current up trend should target 100% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 121.63 next. On the downside, below 118.35 will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring retreat. But downside should be contained above 116.34 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, the break of 118.65 resistance (2016 high) suggest that up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming, with rise from 101.18 (2020 low) as the third leg. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 113.46 low. Sustained trading above 118.65 will pave the way to 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.31; (P) 113.51; (R1) 113.69; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPYremains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 113.18 will target 112.30 support first. Break there will target 111.37 and possibly below. On the upside, above 114.03 will target a test on 114.54/73 key resistance zone. Overall, price actions from 114.54 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Hence, even in case of deep decline, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

USD/JPY’s fall from 115.51 extended lower last week but it’s still holding on to 112.71 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, sustained break of 112.71 will argue that it’s already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57. On the upside, break of 113.94 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 115.51 high instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.65; (P) 139.06; (R1) 139.88; More…

USD/JPY’s rally continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside. Further rise is still expected to 100% projection of 127.20 to 137.90 from 129.62 at 140.32. Break there will target 142.48 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 138.22 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring some consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Stronger rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 151.93. On the downside, however, break of 133.73 support will argue that the pattern could have started the third leg through 127.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.10; (P) 108.78; (R1) 109.46; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. Deeper fall could be seen to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20. Break will likely resume larger decline from 118.65 for a new low below 104.62. On the upside, break of 109.82 is needed to confirm completion of the fall from 111.39. Otherwise, near term outlook will be mildly bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY remains bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). The development. Current deeper than expected fall from 111.39 argues that fall from 118.65 is not finished. Break of 104.62 low would target 98.97 or even below. Though, break of 111.39 will revive the case that fall from 118.65 has completed and turn focus to 114.73 for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.39; (P) 115.71; (R1) 115.89; More…

USD/JPY’s pull back from 116.34 extends lower today but outlook is unchanged. Downside of retreat should be contained well well above 114.26 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, firm break of 61.8% projection of 109.11 to 115.51 from 112.52 at 116.47 will pave the way to 100% projection at 118.90, which is close to 118.65 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 112.52 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.85; (P) 146.48; (R1) 147.07; More…

USD/JPY’s strong rebound today maintains its near term bullishness. Focus is turning to 148.79 resistance. Firm break there will confirm that correction has completed at 145.88, and rise from 140.25 would then resume to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. In case of retreat, further rally will now remain in favor as long as 145.88 support holds.

In the bigger picture, stronger than expected rebound from 140.25 dampened the original bearish review. Strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 142.49) is also a medium term bullish sign. Fall from 151.89 could be a correction to rise from 127.20 only. Decisive break of 151.89/93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. This will now be the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

USD/JPY’s rally from 127.20 continued last week and hit as high as 143.86. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 161.8% projection of 127.20 to 137.90 from 129.62 at 146.93. On the downside, below 142.66 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally will now remain in favor as long as 137.90 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is currently seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Further rally is expected as long as 137.90 resistance turned support holds, to retest 151.93. But strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside. Break of 137.90 will indicate the the third leg has started back towards 127.20.

In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

USD/JPY is still holding above 104.39 resistance turned support despite last week’s deep pull back. Initial bias stays neutral this week first and another rise is in favor. On the upside, break of 105.76 will resume the rebound from 102.58 and target 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 106.06. However, firm break of 104.39 will indicate that rebound from 102.58 has completed at 105.76. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 103.31 support first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.90) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.23).

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

USD/JPY edged higher to 145.89 last week but retreated sharply since then. Yet, downside is contained above 139.37 resistance turned support, and thus there is no indicate of topping yet. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Break of 145.89 will target 147.68 long term resistance. On the downside, however, decisive break of 139.37 will confirm short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Deeper decline would be seen back towards 130.38 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, rise from 101.18 is seen as part of the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rally is expected to 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is slightly above 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 130.38 support holds.