USD/JPY edged higher to 110.14 last week but lost momentum ahead of 110.28 resistance and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Further rise is in favor as long as 109.53 minor support holds. Break of 110.28 will resume whole rally from 104.45. Though, break of 109.53 will turn bias to the downside for 108.30 support instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish outlook yet in spite of the rebound from 104.45. The pair is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and the down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.43; (P) 144.38; (R1) 147.10; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral wit h break of 144.53 minor resistance and some consolidations would be seen. But recovery should be limited below 147.14 support turned resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, break of 141.59 and sustained trading below 142.45 fibonacci level will pave the way to next fibonacci level at 136.63.

In the bigger picture, current fall from 151.89 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Deeper decline would be seen to through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. This will now remain the favored as long as 147.14 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 124.36; (P) 125.07; (R1) 126.10; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. On the downside, break of 124.66 minor support will bring deeper pull back to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 123.67) and possibly below. But downside should be contained above 121.27 support to bring another rally. On the upside, sustained break of 125.85 will pave the way to 130.04 long term projection level next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) is in progress for retesting 125.85 (2015 high). Sustained break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. This will now remain the favored case as long as 116.34 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.89; (P) 137.27; (R1) 137.84; More…

Despite some loss of upside momentum, intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside for retesting 138.37 high. Strong resistance could be seen from 139.37 high to bring another fall from to extend the corrective pattern from there. On the downside below 134.61 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 131.72 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 139.37 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 123.21) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

USD/JPY dropped sharply to as low as 109.52 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 109.78) will suggests that it’s at least correcting the rise from 102..58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 111.65 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest long term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall back towards 102.58 support.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.53; (P) 107.74; (R1) 108.06; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for now. One the upside, firm break of 108.47 will resume the rebound from 104.45 to 109.31 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 106.96 will extend the fall from 108.47. Further break of 106.68 will confirm completion of rebound from 104.45 and target a retest on this low.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.

USD/JPY stayed in range of 105.10/107.05 last week despite very high volatility. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further decline is in favor as long as 107.05 resistance holds. Break of 105.10 will bring retest of 104.18 support first. Further break will resume whole decline from 111.71. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case of near term reversal and bring stronger rally.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.29; (P) 104.44; (R1) 104.63; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. The pair is staying inside falling channel, and below 55 day EMA. Down trend from 111.71 is expected to continue as long as 105.67 resistance holds. On the downside, below 103.65 minor support will bring retest of 103.17 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.79; (P) 111.14; (R1) 111.65; More…

USD/JPY’s fall continues today and reaches as low as 110.10 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside and the fall from 118.65 would target 100% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 108.42 and possibly below. On the upside, break of 111.57 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook stays mildly bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.11) will indicates that such consolidation is not completed. And another fall would be seen back to 98.97 as the third leg. In that case, downside would be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.95 at 94.77 to complete the correction. On the upside, above 115.49 will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85 first. Overall, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume after the consolidation from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.17; (P) 143.56; (R1) 144.57; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral first. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 139.37 resistance turned support. On the upside, break of 144.98 will resume larger up trend to 147.68 long term resistance. Break there will target 161.8% projection of 126.35 to 139.37 from 130.38 at 151.44 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.15; (P) 110.39; (R1) 110.79; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 109.76 extends higher today but it’s staying below 111.42 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Price actions from 113.17 are viewed as a correction. We’d continue to expect strong support around 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 111.42 will turn bias back to the the upside for retesting 113.17 first. However, sustained break of 109.90 will put 109.36 key support level in focus. Break of 109.36 will carry larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.69; (P) 103.89; (R1) 104.17; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Rebound from 102.58 short term bottoming is targeting channel resistance, (now at 104.42). Sustained break there will argue that the down trend from 111.71 has finally completed. Stronger rise would be seen to 105.67 resistance for confirmation. Nevertheless, rejection by the channel resistance will maintain bearishness. Break of 103.59 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 102.58 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 105.67 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.94; (P) 111.27; (R1) 111.62; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 110.23 is still progress and could extend. Overall, recent development suggests that whole corrective decline from 118.65 is going to extend lower. Below 110.23 turn bias back to the downside and send USD/JPY through 108.12 low. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming signal again at 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.51; (P) 113.67; (R1) 113.94; More..

USD/JPY’s rise from 112.30 is in progress and reaches as high as 113.90 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 114.20/73 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will resume larger rally from 104.62. On the downside, below 113.41 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Overall, price actions from 114.54 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Hence, even in case of another decline, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.69; (P) 103.80; (R1) 103.98; More..

Consolidations continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 104.39 and sustained trading above the channel resistance will argue that the down trend from 111.71 has finally completed. Stronger rise would be seen to 105.67 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 103.51 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 102.58 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 105.67 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

USD/JPY retreated after recovering to 137.84 but there was no clear downside momentum. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 137.84 resistance will revive the case of short term bottoming at 133.61, and turn bias back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 141.02). However, break of 133.61 will resume the decline form 151.93 through 133.07 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 medium term could be just a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07 and 55 week EMA (now at 131.52) will set the range for such corrective pattern. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

In the long term picture, rise from 102.58, as part of the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) was put to a halt at 151.93, just ahead of 100% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 102.58 at 152.87. There is no clear sign of long term reversal yet. Such up trend is expected to resume at a later stage, as long as 125.85 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.53; (P) 109.69; (R1) 110.00; More…

USD/JPY’s rally continues today and reaches as high as 110.38 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside. Sustained break of long term channel resistance will carry larger bullish implication and target 111.71 resistance next. On the downside, below 109.70 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 108.40 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.00). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.01; (P) 113.53; (R1) 113.99; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. As it’s still holding on to 112.95 support, near term outlook remains bullish. On the upside, sustained break of 114.49 key resistance will pave the way to retest 118.65 high. However, break of 112.95 support will now indicate rejection from 114.49 and turn bias to the downside for 111.64 support and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completes. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.41; (P) 121.91; (R1) 122.86; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside in spite of current retreat. Sustained trading above 100% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 121.63, will pave the way to 125.85 long term resistance. On the downside, however, below 120.58 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, the break of 118.65 resistance (2016 high) suggest that up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming, with rise from 101.18 (2020 low) as the third leg. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 113.46 low. Next target is 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.08; (P) 107.29; (R1) 107.51; More..

USD/JPY’s rise from 105.98 short term bottom resumes by taking out 107.76 resistance. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 109.38 resistance. As noted before, corrective fall from 111.71 should have already completed at 105.98. Break of 109.38 will target 111.71 high. However, break of 106.74 minor support will dampen the bullish view and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.