Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.45; (P) 109.66; (R1) 109.91; More…

USD/JPY recovers mildly today but stays in range of 109.10/110.79. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound from 108.71 to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.38; (P) 108.55; (R1) 108.67; More…

USD/JPY recovers after drawing support form 4 hour 55 EMA but stays below 108.93 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first and more consolidations could be seen. In case of another retreat, downside should be contained well above 106.48 support. On the upside, above 108.93 will target 109.31 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications next target will be 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50.

In the bigger picture,strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.90; (P) 133.25; (R1) 133.86; More…

USD/JPY’s recovery lost momentum after hitting 134.49 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, above 134.49 should resume the rebound through near term channel resistance, towards 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 130.55 at 138.71 first. On the downside, however, break of 132.62 minor support will bring retest of 130.55 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 medium term could be just a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07 and 55 week EMA (now at 131.76) will set the range for such corrective pattern. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.05; (P) 133.76; (R1) 134.97; More…

USD/JPY is retreating mildly but intraday bias stays on the upside. Current up trend should target 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 143.29. On the downside, below 132.30 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral to bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.79; (P) 130.04; (R1) 130.38; More…

USD/JPY is still staying in range below 131.24 and intraday bias remains neutral. Also, near term outlook stays bullish with 126.91 support intact and further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 131.24 will resume recent up trend to 261.8% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 133.26. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 126.91 will confirm short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for 121.27/125.09 support zone.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.21; (P) 113.71; (R1) 113.99; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is mildly on the downside as pull back from 114.69 is extending. But downside should be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, firm break of 114.69 will resume the larger up trend to 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.57; (P) 107.87; (R1) 108.08; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 108.80 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 106.78 minor support will extend the decline from 112.40 to retest 104.69 low. However, firm break of 108.80 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias to the upside for 110.67 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.63; (P) 111.01; (R1) 111.35; More…

With 111.53 minor resistance intact, the corrective fall from 113.17 could extend lower. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 111.53 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 113.17 high first.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.20; (P) 138.67; (R1) 138.94; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 139.37. Downside of retreat should be contained by 134.73 support. On the upside, break of 139.37 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.02; (P) 133.53; (R1) 134.76; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the downside at this point. Current fall from 137.90 would target 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 137.90 at 131.28. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 127.20 low. On the upside, above 134.68 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 127.20 should have completed at 137.90 as a corrective move, with strong break of 55 day EMA. The down trend from 151.93 (2022 high) is not over yet. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.89; (P) 115.37; (R1) 115.69; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 116.34 and intraday bias remains neutral. Downside of retreat should be contained well well above 114.26 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, firm break of 61.8% projection of 109.11 to 115.51 from 112.52 at 116.47 will pave the way to 100% projection at 118.90, which is close to 118.65 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 112.52 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.76; (P) 148.06; (R1) 148.65; More…

USD/JPY’s rally is in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rise from 127.20 should target a retest on 151.93 high. On the downside, below 147.49 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 145.88 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by break of 137.22 support will indicate that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.51; (P) 111.88; (R1) 112.13; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for consolidation above 111.62 temporary low. As long as 112.52 minor resistance holds, deeper fall is expected. Decline from 114.54 is viewed as correcting whole rise from 104.62. Break of 111.62 will target 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75. We’ll look for bottoming signal above 109.76 key support. On the upside, considering mild bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, above 112.52 minor resistance will indicate completion of the pull back and bring retest of 114.54 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.61; (P) 110.78; (R1) 111.02; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range below 111.13 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 110.00 resistance turned support will suggest rejection by 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 and the rebound from 104.69 has likely completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 108.49 support for confirmation. Nevertheless, break of 111.13 should confirm resumption of rise from 104.69 for 114.54 resistance.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was stronger than expected, it couldn’t sustain above 55 day EMA yet. Outlook is turned mixed first. On the downside, break of 108.49 support will revive that case that such rebound was a correction. And, larger down trend is still in progress for another low below 104.62. But sustained trading above 55 day EMA will turn focus to 114.54. Decisive break there will confirmation completion of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.45; (P) 114.82; (R1) 115.07; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is still mildly in favor with 114.46 minor support intact. On the upside, break of 115.68 will target 116.34 high first. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend for 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 114.46 will extend the corrective pattern from 116.34 with another falling leg through 113.46 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.07) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.97; (P) 139.48; (R1) 140.19; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Strong resistance is expected from 55 4H EMA (now at 139.87) to complete the recovery from 137.22. Break of 137.22 and sustained trading below 137.90 resistance turned support will confirm the larger bearish case, and target 127.20 and below. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 4H EMA will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 145.06 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Sustained break of 137.90 resistance turned support should confirm this case and target 127.20 (2023 low) and below. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 145.06 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.07; (P) 107.35; (R1) 107.76; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY recovers further today but stays below 108.47 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. on the downside, break of 106.48 will target a retest on 104.45 low. On the upside, break of 108.47 will our bearish view and resume the rebound from 104.45 for 109.31 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.33; (P) 148.62; (R1) 148.96; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral with focus on 148.79 resistance. Firm break there will resume the rally from 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. For now, further rise will remain in favor as long as 145.88 holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as a correction to the rally from 127.20, which might have completed at 140.25 already. Firm break of 151.89/93 resistance zone will confirm up trend resumption next target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.50. This will now remain the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.28; (P) 114.95; (R1) 115.50; More…

Prior breach of 115.43 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 118.65 is completed at 112.56 already. Intraday bias stays mildly on the upside for retesting 118.65 first. Break will resume whole rise from 98.97 and target 125.85 key resistance. In case of another fall, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.78; (P) 145.31; (R1) 146.29; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 140.25 resumed by breaking through 145.97. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 151.89 to 140.25 at 147.44. Upside should be limited there to bring reversal. On the downside, below 145.27 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, for now, fall from 151.89 is still seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.89. Another decline through 140.25 will target 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63. Sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). However, firm break of 147.44 fibonacci resistance will dampen this view and bring retest of 151.89 instead.