Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.97; (P) 139.48; (R1) 140.19; More…

For now, strong resistance is still expected by 55 4H EMA (now at 139.87) to complete the recovery from 137.22. Break of 137.22 and sustained trading below 137.90 resistance turned support will confirm the larger bearish case, and target 127.20 and below. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 4H EMA will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 145.06 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Sustained break of 137.90 resistance turned support should confirm this case and target 127.20 (2023 low) and below. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 145.06 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.35; (P) 111.56; (R1) 111.74; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral, as range trading continues, inside 110.68/111.82. On the upside, break of 111.82 will reaffirm the case that correction from 113.17 has completed at 109.76. And in that case, further rise should be seen back to retest 113.17 high. On the downside, below 110.68 will bring another fall. But still, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.29; (P) 139.90; (R1) 140.67; More…

USD/JPY’s rise from 137.22 accelerates higher today, and the development suggests that pull back from 145.06 has completed at 137.22 already. Intraday bias is now on the upside for retesting 145.06 first. Firm break there will resume larger rise from 127.20 to 61.8% projection of 129.62 to 127.22 from 145.06 at 146.76 next. On the downside, below 139.10 minor support will bring retest of 137.22 instead.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that the second leg (the rise from 127.20) might not be over yet. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.14; (P) 110.91; (R1) 111.49; More..

USD/JPY is still holding above 110.28 resistance turned support and intraday bias remains neutral first. Another rise could be seen and firm break of 112.40 resistance will affirm medium term bullishness and target 114.54 key resistance next. However, sustained break of 110.28 would raise the chance that whole rise from 104.45 has completed. Deeper fall would be seen back to 108.30 support first.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that corrective fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) might have completed with three waves down to 104.45 already. Focus is back of 114.54 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm this case and bring resumption of whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) towards 125.85 (2015 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 108.30 support holds.

USD/JPY failed to break through 151.93 key resistance last week, and fell sharply since then. But downside is contained by 149.17 support so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of 149.17 will be a sign of bearish reversal and bring deeper fall to 147.28 support first. Nevertheless, strong bounce from current level will retain near term bullishness. Firm break of 151.93 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will argue that rise from 127.20 has completed, and turn outlook bearish for 137.22 support and below. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69. This will remain the favored case as long as 127.20 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.18; (P) 144.20; (R1) 145.89; More…

While USD/JPY’s rebound from 141.59 is strong, outlook is unchanged for the moment. Upside should be limited be 147.14 support turned resistance. On the downside, below 144.80 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 141.59. Break of 141.59 and sustained trading below 142.45 fibonacci level will pave the way to next fibonacci level at 136.63. However, firm break 147.14 will dampen the bearish view, and bring stronger rally to 149.56 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, current fall from 151.89 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Deeper decline would be seen through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. This will now remain the favored as long as 147.14 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.62; (P) 110.19; (R1) 110.55; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 109.54 will extend the corrective pattern from 111.39 with another falling leg to 108.10 and possibly below. But, we’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 110.89 will extend the rise from 108.10 towards 111.39. But we’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.92; (P) 161.30; (R1) 161.66; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidations could be seen first. Further rally is expected as long as 160.25 minor support holds. Break of 161.94 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 146.47 to 160.20 from 154.53 at 163.01. Nevertheless, break of 160.25 will turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is still in progress. Further rise is expected as long as 154.53 support holds. Next target is 100% projection of 127.20 (2023 low) to 151.89 (2023 high) from 140.25 at 164.94.

USD/JPY’s rise from 127.20 resumed last week by breaking through 137.90 resistance. But as a temporary top was formed at 138.73, initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Downside of retreat should be contained by 136.31 support to bring another rally. Break of 138.73 will turn bias back to the upside for 100% projection of 127.20 to 137.90 from 129.62 at 140.32. Break there will target 142.48 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Stronger rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 151.93. On the downside, however, break of 133.73 support will argue that the pattern could have started the third leg through 127.20 low.

In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 125.11; (P) 125.45; (R1) 125.80; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral and consolidation from 126.75 is still extending. Downside of retreat should be contained above 124.31 support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 126.75 will target 100% projection of 114.42 to 124.43 from 119.31 at 129.32. Nevertheless, break of 124.31 will indicate short term topping and turn bias to the downside for pull back.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) could have completed at 114.42 already. Rise from 114.42 would target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 114.42 at 128.67 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to 137.49 (2018 high). This will remain the preferred case for now, as long as 55 day EMA (now at 122.54) holds. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA will revive medium term bearishness for another low below 114.42 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.15; (P) 112.35; (R1) 112.49; More…

USD/JPY recovers notably today but stays below 112.79 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first and more consolidation could be seen. Below 112.21 will target 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 111.68). But downside should be contained well above 111.13 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, break of 112.79 will target 61.8% projection of 104.62 to 111.39 from 109.36 at 113.54 first. Break will put focus on 114.73 key resistance for confirming our bullish medium term view.

In the bigger picture, current development, with the solid break of medium term channel resistance from 118.65 (2016 high), affirm our view that corrective fall from there has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 119.36 support holds.

USD/JPY stayed in consolidation below 148.79 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. With 145.97 resistance turned support intact, further rally is in favor. As noted before, corrective fall from 151.89 should have completed at 140.25 already. Break of 148.79 will resume the rise from there for retesting 151.89/93 key resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, stronger than expected rebound from 140.25 dampened the original bearish review. Strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 142.33) is also a medium term bullish sign. Fall from 151.89 could be a correction to rise from 127.20 only. Decisive break of 151.89/93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. This will now be the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

In the long term picture, as long as 125.85 resistance turned support holds (2015 high), up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in favor to continue through 151.93 (2022 high) at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.98; (P) 106.31; (R1) 106.94; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as it’s stuck in range below 107.00. Another rise is mildly in favor as long as 105.31 minor support holds. Above 107.00 will target 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. Hence, we’ll look at the reaction from 108.48 (which is close to 108.12 too) to assess the chance. On the downside, below 105.31 minor support will indicate that the rebound is completed and turn bias back to the downside for 104.62 and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.45; (P) 133.45; (R1) 134.03; More…

Break of 132.61 minor support argues that recovery form 130.55 has completed earlier than expected at 134.49. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 130.55 support. On the upside, above 134.49 should resume the rebound through near term channel resistance, towards 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 130.55 at 138.71.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 medium term could be just a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07 and 55 week EMA (now at 131.76) will set the range for such corrective pattern. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.15; (P) 106.56; (R1) 106.82; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidative trading from 105.24. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Note again that bullish convergence condition is seen in 4 hour MACD. On the upside, decisive break 107.67 resistance will indicate near term reversal. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next. But before that, another decline is still mildly in favor. Break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.39; (P) 107.97; (R1) 108.32; More..

USD/JPY drops to as low as 107.38 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Fall from 109.85 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 111.71. Break of 107.08 would target a test on 105.98 support. On the upside, above 107.42 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 109.85 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is clear indication of trend reversal yet. Break of 105.98 support would extend the down trend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

USD/JPY’s steep decline last week confirmed short term topping at 145.06, in bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for 140.90 resistance turned support. Firm break there will raise the chance that whole rebound from 127.20 has completed. Deeper decline should then be seen to 137.90 resistance turned support for confirmation. On the upside, above 143.54 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 145.06 instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Further rally could still be seen as long as 137.90 resistance turned support holds, to retest 151.93. But strong resistance should be seen there to limit upside. However, Break of 137.90 will indicate that the third leg has started back towards 127.20.

In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.24; (P) 111.74; (R1) 112.12; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside at this point. A short term top was formed at 112.14 on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Deeper decline would be seen to 110.84 support first. Break will add to the case of reversal and target 109.71 support and below. On the upside, decisive break of 112.40 is needed to confirm resumption of rise from 104.69. Otherwise, risk will stay mildly on the downside.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.15; (P) 103.53; (R1) 103.81; More..

USD/JPY drops to as low as 102.93 so far today. The break of 103.17 support confirms resumption of whole down trend from 111.71. Intraday bias remains on the downside. Deeper decline would be seen to retest 101.18 low. On the upside, above 103.51 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 104.57 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.85; (P) 146.48; (R1) 147.07; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as focus remains on 148.79 resistance. Firm break there will resume the rally from 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. For now, further rise will remain in favor as long as 145.88 holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as a correction to the rally from 127.20, which might have completed at 140.25 already. Firm break of 151.89/93 resistance zone will confirm up trend resumption next target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.50. This will now remain the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.