Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.42; (P) 108.79; (R1) 109.23; More….

Intraday bias in USD/JPY as consolidation from 108.12 temporary low extends. With 110.10 resistance intact, near term outlook stays bearish. Rise from 98.97 is finished at 118.65 and fall from there would extend. On the downside, break of 108.12 will target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 98.97 low. Nonetheless, break of 110.10 will be the first sign of near term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 112.19 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that it’s not completed yet and is extending. In case of deeper decline, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.50; (P) 106.85; (R1) 107.09; More…

USD/JPY drew support from 4 hour 55 EMA and recovered. But it’s staying below 107.48 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, above 107.48 will resume the rebound from 104.62. But reaction from 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 is crucial to determine the outlook. Firm break of 108.48 will add some credence to the case of trend reversal. And USD/JPY should target 61.8% retracement at 110.86 next. Nonetheless, rejection from 108.48 (which is close to 108.12 key resistance too), will retain bearishness. Break of 105.65 support will indicate that the rebound is completed and turn bias back to the downside for 104.62 and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.35; (P) 106.53; (R1) 106.80; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 105.04 is still in progress. Near term outlook remains bearish with 107.09 minor resistance intact, and further fall is expected. On the downside, break of 105.04 will resume larger decline from 112.40 to 104.69 low. Break will target 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. On the upside, though, break of 107.09 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. In this case, stronger rebound would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.75).

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.61; (P) 136.49; (R1) 137.04; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 137.90 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 135.35 support holds. Break of 137.90 will resume the rally from 127.20 to next fibonacci level at 142.48. However, break of 135.35 will bring deeper pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 134.36) instead.

In the bigger picture, the break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 suggests that whole down trend from 151.93 has completed at 127.20 already. Tentatively, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg the medium term pattern from 151.93. Further rally is expected to 61.8% retracement at 142.48. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 134.10) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.18; (P) 151.34; (R1) 151.51; More…

USD/JPY is staying below 151.96 resistance despite current recovery. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 150.25 support should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 149.25). Nevertheless, sustained break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.57; (P) 137.05; (R1) 137.96; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside with focus on 137.90 resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rebound from 127.20, and target 100% projection of 127.20 to 137.90 from 129.62 at 140.32. On the downside, below 136.56 support will turn intraday bias remains neutral first. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 135.13 resistance turned support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 high are currently seen as a corrective pattern to the long term up trend. The first leg should have completed at 127.20. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg. Sustained break of 31.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34 will bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 142.48. Meanwhile, break of 129.62 will argue that the third leg is starting through 127.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.16; (P) 136.63; (R1) 137.23; More…

Focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 in USD/JPY. Sustained break there will indicate that fall from 151.93 has completed, and bring further rally to 61.8% retracement at 142.48. Nevertheless, rejection by this fibonacci level, followed by break of 135.24 support, will argue that rebound from 127.20 has completed, and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64. Sustained break there will indicate that price actions from 151.93 medium term are merely a corrective pattern. Such development will maintain long term bullishness. Rejection by 136.64 will, on the other hand, extend the fall from 151.93 to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.62; (P) 108.88; (R1) 109.14; More..

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 109.35 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 108.33 minor support intact, the consolidation should be brief. On the upside, break of 109.35 will resume the larger rise from 102.58 long term channel resistance at 110.02 next. However, on the downside, break of 108.33 will indicate short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for correction.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.02). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.63; (P) 106.36; (R1) 107.20; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation above 105.52 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral first. Another recovery could be seen but upside should be limited below 109.31 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 105.52 will target 104.69 low next.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) not completed yet, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.48; (P) 136.73; (R1) 137.17; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as range trading is still extending. On the downside, firm break of 134.73 will confirm short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour and daily MACD. Deeper fall would be seen through 55 day EMA to 126.35/131.34 support zone. On the upside, break of 139.37 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

USD/JPY’s extended rebound last week argues that fall from 137.90 has completed at 129.62. Rise from there is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 127.20. Initial bias is mildly on the upside and sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 133.43) will target 137.90 resistance. On the downside, though, break of 129.62 will bring retest of 127.20 low.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 127.20 might be extending. But after all, down trend from 151.93 is expected to resume at a later stage. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.27; (P) 111.42; (R1) 111.65; More…

USD/JPY’s rally resumes by breaking through 111.57 temporary top, after brief consolidations. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 112.13 resistance. Decisive break of 112.13 resistance will resume whole rise from 104.69 to 114.54 key resistance next. For now, further rally will remain mildly in favor as long as 111.18 minor support holds. But break of 111.18 will turn bias back to the downside for 109.71, and possibly further to 38.2% retracement of 104.69 to 112.13 at 109.28.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was strong, USD/JPY failed to sustain above 55 week EMA (now at 110.80), and was kept well below 114.54 resistance. Medium term outlook is turned mixed and we’ll wait for the structure of the fall from 112.13 to unveil to make an assessment later. For now, more range trading is expected between 104.69 and 112.13 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.45; (P) 132.04; (R1) 133.04; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further decline is expected as long as 135.10 resistance holds. The current favored case is that rebound from 127.20 has completed at 137.90 already. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 137.90 at 131.28 will pave the way to retest 127.20 low next. However, break of 135.10 will turn bias back to the upside for 137.90 instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 127.20 should have completed at 137.90 as a corrective move, with strong break of 55 day EMA. The down trend from 151.93 (2022 high) is not over yet. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.65; (P) 103.80; (R1) 103.91; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. The pair is still bounded inside falling channel that started at 111.71. Hence, deeper decline could be seen. Below 103.31 will bring retest of 102.58 low first. however, on the upside, break of 104.39 and sustained trading above the channel resistance will argue that the down trend from 111.71 has finally completed. Stronger rise would be seen to 105.67 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 105.67 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.12; (P) 145.85; (R1) 146.89; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first with current retreat. Break of 144.80 minor support will suggest that rebound from 141.59 has completed at 146.58, after rejection by 55 4H EMA. Intraday bias will then be back on the downside for retesting 141.59 low. Overall outlook will stay bearish as long as 147.14 support turned resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, current fall from 151.89 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Deeper decline would be seen through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. This will now remain the favored as long as 147.14 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.37; (P) 109.48; (R1) 109.58; More..

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 109.72 and intraday bias remains neutral. More sideway trading could be seen. But as long as 108.27 support holds, outlook remains bullish for further rally. On the upside, break of 109.72 will resume the rise from 104.45 for 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. However, sustained break of 108.27 support will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.72; (P) 111.02; (R1) 111.44; More…

USD/JPY edged higher to 111.42 earlier today but retreated sharply from there. Intraday bias is turned neutral again. Overall outlook is unchanged though. Choppy decline from 113.17 is seen as a correction. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 111.42 will target 112.14 minor resistance first. Break will argue that larger rally is possibly resuming for above 113.17.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.58; (P) 113.85; (R1) 114.16; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment as the pair is staying in tight range below 114.94 resistance and above 4 hour 55 EMA. Near term outlook is a bit mixed as the corrective fall from 118.65 might not be completed yet. But still, in case of another fall, we’d still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, decisive break of 114.94 will indicate that it’s completed with a double bottom pattern (111.58, 111.68). In such case, intraday bias will be turned to the upside for retesting 118.65.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.78; (P) 112.09; (R1) 112.51; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 112.40 temporary top and sustained trading above 112.13 will confirm resumption of whole rise from 104.69, for 114.54 resistance. On the downside, however, firm break of 111.65 minor support will indicate short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 110.84 support. Break will indicate bearish reversal for 109.71 support and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.12; (P) 105.46; (R1) 105.68; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Further rise is mildly in favor with 104.94 support intact. On the upside, break of 106.10 will target 106.94 resistance. Sustained break there should confirm completion of the whole decline from 111.71. On the downside, break of 104.94 support will revive near term bearishness and target a test on 104.00 low instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.