Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.50; (P) 107.70; (R1) 107.82; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. We’re favoring the case that corrective fall from 111.71 has already completed at 105.98. Break of 108.08 will turn bias to the upside for 109.38 resistance. However, break of 106.74 support will dampen our bullish view and turn bias to the downside for 105.98 instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.05; (P) 114.37; (R1) 114.66; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first as it retreated just ahead of 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 114.71. On the downside, break of 113.87 minor support will confirm short term topping, and turn intraday bias to the downside for deeper pull back. But downside should be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, sustained break of 114.71 will resume larger up trend from 102.58 to 100% projection at 118.18 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.06; (P) 104.26; (R1) 104.45; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Current development argues that whole down trend from 111.71 has completed, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rally would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 106.06. On the downside, break of 104.16 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 105.67 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.13; (P) 141.67; (R1) 142.54; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral, and further decline is in favor as long as 142.84 minor resistance holds. Break of 140.25 will resume fall from 151.89 and target 136.63 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, break of 142.84 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63, sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). This will now remain the favored as long as 144.94 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.48; (P) 112.81; (R1) 113.42; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 114.73 key near term resistance. Decisive break there pave the way to retest 118.65 high. On the downside, break of 111.98 support is needed to indicate near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will be mildly bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed a 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this will and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

USD/JPY’s fall from 118.65 extended to as low as 108.52 last week. The firm break of 55 week EMA argues that rise from 98.97 is completed already. And deeper fall could be seen to 98.97 and below to extend the correction pattern from 125.85.

Initial bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside this week. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 98.97 low. On the upside, break of 110.10 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain mildly bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that it’s not completed yet and is extending. In case of deeper decline, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 medium term top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.11; (P) 154.43; (R1) 155.01; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 55 4H EMA (now at 154.81) argues that pull back from 160.20 has completed at 151.86 already. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 157.98 resistance. On the downside, in case of another fall, strong support should be seen from 150.87 resistance turned support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.82; (P) 113.01; (R1) 113.14; More...

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. Intraday bias stays neutral first. . On the downside, break of 112.30 will extend the fall from 114.20 and target 111.37 support. Such decline is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 114.54. Downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 113.21 will indicate that fall from 114.20 has completed. And, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 114.54/73 key resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.48; (P) 110.80; (R1) 111.12; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 111.47 will affirm the case that correction from 114.73 is finished with three waves down to 110.18. Intraday bias should then be turned back to the upside for 113.38 resistance for confirmation. However, below 110.18 will extend the correction lower. But we’d again look for bottoming signal in next fall.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.28; (P) 148.34; (R1) 149.08; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 150.87 at 146.81. Sustained break of there will argue that fall from 150.87 is reversing the whole rally from 140.25. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 144.30 and below. Nevertheless, strong support from 146.81, followed by break of 149.20 resistance, will argue that fall from 150.87 is merely a correction, which has completed already.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed up as fall from 150.87 accelerates lower. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 148.45) will open up the case that corrective pattern from 151.89 (2023 high) is extending, with fall from 150.87 as the third leg. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 140.25 support or below. Nevertheless, strong bounce from 55 D EMA will retain near term bullishness for at least another take on 151.89.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.98; (P) 105.21; (R1) 105.49; More..

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 106.21 and intraday bias remains neutral first. With 104.40 support intact, further rise is in favor. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 108.22. However, on the downside, break of 104.40 will turn bias to the downside for 103.31 support.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.84) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.15).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.88; (P) 111.29; (R1) 111.52; More…

USD/JPY drops sharply to as low as 110.28 so far as fall from 112.40 accelerates. Break of 110.84 support adds to the case of bearish reversal. That is, whole rebound from 104.69 has completed at 112.40 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Intraday bias is now on the downside for 109.71 support. Decisive break will confirm this bearish case and targets retesting 104.69 low. On the upside, break of 111.70 resistance is needed to confirm completion of the fall. Otherwise, outlook will now remain cautiously bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. However, sustained break of 109.71 will raise the chance that fall from 118.65 is still in progress for another low below 104.62.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.80; (P) 113.03; (R1) 113.41; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back to the downside with break of 112.57 minor support. Break of 112.30 will will extend the fall from 114.20 to 111.37 support and below. But after all, price actions from 114.54 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Hence, even in case of deep decline, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound. Larger rise from 104.62 is expected to resume later. On the upside, above 113.24 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 114.03 resistance.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.79; (P) 109.00; (R1) 109.37; More..

USD/JPY’s rally resumes after brief retreat is focus is now on 109.38 resistance. Sustained break there will extend the rise from 105.98 to retest 111.71 high. For now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 108.08 resistance turned support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.15; (P) 109.48; (R1) 109.64; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Risk stays on the downside with 110.32 resistance intact. Corrective rise from 107.47 should have completed at 110.32. Below 109.17 will target 108.55 support first. Break there should indicate that pattern from 110.95 has started the third leg already and target 107.47 support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.51; (P) 112.71; (R1) 113.02; More….

The break of 113.25 temporary top argues that USD/JPY’s rise from 107.31 is resuming. Intraday bias is cautiously back on the upside. Sustained break of medium term falling channel will argue that correction from 118.65 is already completed with three waves down to 107.31. Break of 114.49 will confirm this bullish case and target a test on 118.65 next. On the downside, however, break of 112.31 minor support will mix up the near term outlook again and turn bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.99; (P) 108.13; (R1) 108.33; More…

USD/JPY’s solid break of 108.37 resistance suggests that pull back from 108.99 has completed. And, rebound from 106.78 is likely resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 108.99 resistance first. Break will confirm and target 100% projection of 106.78 to 108.99 from 107.21 at 109.42 and then 161.8% projection at 110.78. On the downside, below 107.93 minor support will turn bias back to the downside instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.57; (P) 110.87; (R1) 111.23; More…

Outlook is USD/JPY remains unchanged. While the correction from 113.17 might still extend lower, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 111.17 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside. Further break of 112.14 will bring retest of 113.17 high. However, firm break of 109.90 will put focus on 109.36 key structural support level.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

USD/JPY dropped sharply last week after failing to break through 137.90 resistance. But as a temporary low was formed at 133.48, initial bias is neutral this week first. Fall from 137.76 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 137.90. Below 133.48 will target 133.00 first, break will target 129.62 support. Still, as long as 129.62 holds, larger rebound from 127.20 is still in favor to resume at a later stage. On the upside, above 135.68 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 137.76/90 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 high are currently seen as a corrective pattern to the long term up trend. The first leg should have completed at 127.20. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34 will bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 142.48. Meanwhile, break of 129.62 will argue that the third leg is starting through 127.20 low.

In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.17; (P) 145.52; (R1) 145.93; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point, despite some loss of momentum. Current rally from 127.20 is in progress for 61.8% projection of 129.62 to 145.06 from 137.22 at 146.76. On the downside, below 144.62 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.