Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.28; (P) 110.93; (R1) 112.02; More..

USD/JPY surges to as high as 111.59 so far and intraday bias remains on the upside. Sustained trading above long term trend line resistance will carry larger bullish implication and target 112.40 resistance next. For now, near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 109.65 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that corrective fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) might have completed with three waves down to 104.45 already. Focus is back of 114.54 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm this case and bring resumption of whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) towards 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.35; (P) 130.08; (R1) 130.71; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 131.34 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected with 128.61 support intact. Above 131.34 will target 261.8% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 133.26. However, firm break of 128.61 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.79; (P) 140.30; (R1) 140.71; More…

USD/JPY’s rally is still in progress. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 100% projection of 126.35 to 139.37 from 130.38 at 143.40. Sustained break there could bring upside acceleration of 147.68 long term resistance. On the downside, below 139.05 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.49; (P) 113.70; (R1) 113.94; More…

USD/JPY recovered after drawing support from 4 hour 55 EMA and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 114.69 will resume the larger up trend to 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next. In case of another fall as correction extends, should be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.51; (P) 112.68; (R1) 112.92; More…

Despite the strong rebound from 112.05, USD/JPY is staying in range of 112.02/113.74 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Near term outlook stays bullish as long as 112.02 support holds and further rise is expected. Break of 113.74 will resume the rebound from 110.83 and target 114.73 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, break of 112.02 will likely extend the corrective pattern from 114.73 with another leg through 110.83 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.07; (P) 144.44; (R1) 144.80; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as consolidation continues below 145.89. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further rally is expected as long as 139.37 resistance turned support holds. Break of 145.89 will target 147.68 long term resistance. On the downside, however, decisive break of 139.37 will confirm short term topping. Deeper decline would be seen back towards 130.38 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.00; (P) 107.36; (R1) 107.68; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 107.04 temporary low. Upside should be limited by 108.80 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 107.04 will pave the way to retest 104.69 low. Nevertheless, firm break of 108.80 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back to 110.67 resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.92; (P) 104.10; (R1) 104.30; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. It’s staying well inside falling channel, and below 55 day EMA, keeping near term outlook bearish. On the downside, break of 103.65 will target 103.17 low for resuming larger down trend from 111.71.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

USD/JPY is still holding above 104.39 resistance turned support despite last week’s deep pull back. Initial bias stays neutral this week first and another rise is in favor. On the upside, break of 105.76 will resume the rebound from 102.58 and target 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 106.06. However, firm break of 104.39 will indicate that rebound from 102.58 has completed at 105.76. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 103.31 support first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.90) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.23).

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.84; (P) 113.03; (R1) 113.29; More…

USD/JPY recovers today but remains bounded in range of 111.58/114.94. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Corrective fall from 118.65 could extend lower through 111.58. But we’d still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 114.94 resistance should confirm completion of pull back from 118.65. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 118.65.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.26; (P) 109.48; (R1) 109.81; More…

USD/JPY recovered ahead of 109.02 support. Intraday bias stays neutral as consolidation from 109.02 is extending. In case of another rise upside should be limited below 110.67 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside, break of 109.02 will resume the fall from 112.40 and target 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63 next.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Current development suggests that rebound from 104.69 is only a corrective move. And fall from 118.65 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 104.69 will extend the down trend towards 98.97 support (2016 low). For now, we’d expect strong support above there to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 102.63; (P) 103.03; (R1) 103.48; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. But outlook stays bearish with 103.89 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 102.58 will extend the down trend from 111.17 to retest 101.18 low. However, firm break of 103.89 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.51; (P) 103.85; (R1) 104.14; More..

USD/JPY is staying in consolidative trading and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, sustained break of the channel resistance will argue that the down trend from 111.71 has finally completed. Stronger rise would be seen to 105.67 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 103.51 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 102.58 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 105.67 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.33; (P) 134.65; (R1) 135.67; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first on loss of downside momentum. Break of 137.66 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, ahead of 133.07 medium term fibonacci level. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 142.24 resistance first. However, before, another decline could still be seen to 133.07 medium term fibonacci level or further to 55 week EMA.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 131.33). Some support should be seen around this zone to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.36; (P) 110.84; (R1) 111.14; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for further decline to 108.81 support. Break there will resume whole correction from 118.65 and target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 112.18 resistance will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.49 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.38; (P) 108.67; (R1) 108.88; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. As long as 107.93 minor support holds, further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 108.99 will resume the rebound from 106.78 for 100% projection of 106.78 to 108.99 from 107.21 at 109.42 and then 161.8% projection at 110.78. On the downside, below 107.93 minor support will turn bias back to the downside instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) not completed yet, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.62; (P) 106.87; (R1) 107.17; More…

USD/JPY is losing some downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But intraday bias stays on the downside with 107.29 minor resistance intact. Corrective recovery from 104.45 has completed at 108.47, ahead of 109.31 key resistance. Further fall should be seen for retesting 104.45 low first. On the upside, above 107.29 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 108.47 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.48; (P) 111.78; (R1) 112.23; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current rise from 104.69 should target 114.54 resistance next. On the downside, below 111.50 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 110.35 support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, current strong rebound from 104.69 argues that decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.69, after failing 104.62. More importantly, the rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus now turns back to 114.54 resistance, decisive break there will add more credence to this bullish case and target 118.65. This will now be the favored case as long as 110.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.80; (P) 139.20; (R1) 140.73; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral again with current recovery. Stronger rise cannot be ruled out, but upside should be limited below 145.16 support turned resistance. Break of 137.66 will resume the decline from 151.93, to 133.07 fibonacci level, as a correction to the larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 130.58).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.71; (P) 111.07; (R1) 111.32; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. As noted before, the corrective fall from 113.17 is possibly not completed yet. Break of 110.58 will bring deeper decline. Nonetheless, in that case, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 112.14 will target a test on 113.17 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.