Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.76; (P) 109.02; (R1) 109.28; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for some consolidations. Further rise is expected as long as 108.33 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 109.35 will resume the rally from 102.58 to long term channel resistance at 110.02 next. Decisive break there will carry larger implications. However, on the downside, break of 108.33 will indicate short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for correction.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.02). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.41; (P) 109.66; (R1) 109.95; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside for retesting 108.12/26 support zone. Decisive break there will resume the whole corrective decline from 118.65. In that case, USD/JPY will target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. In any case, outlook will remain cautiously bearish as long as 110.94 resistance holds. Nonetheless, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 110.94 will indicate near term reversal and bring stronger rebound back towards 114.49 resistance.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.76; (P) 113.27; (R1) 113.62; More…

USD/JPY’s fall from 114.36 extends lower today but there is no change in the outlook so far. Such decline is seen as a correction. We’d expect downside to be contained by 112.08 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 108.12 to 114.36 at 111.97) and bring rally resumption. Above 113.15 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 114.36 resistance first. Also, corrective fall from 118.65 is completed with three wave down to 108.12. Above 114.36 will target 115.49 resistance first. Break there should resume whole rise from 98.97 to 125.85 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 115.49 resistance will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.16; (P) 110.60; (R1) 111.10; More…

USD/JPY consolidates above 110.10 temporary low and intraday bias is neutral for the moment. As long as 111.57 resistance holds, deeper decline is expected in the pair. Below 110.10 will extend the current fall from 118.65 to 100% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 108.42 and possibly below. Meanwhile, firm break of 111.57 will indicate short term bottoming and bring rebound back to 55 day EMA (now at 113.09).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.11) will indicates that such consolidation is not completed. And another fall would be seen back to 98.97 as the third leg. In that case, downside would be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.95 at 94.77 to complete the correction. On the upside, above 115.49 will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85 first. Overall, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume after the consolidation from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.64; (P) 111.11; (R1) 111.37; More….

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. As noted before, corrective fall from 118.65 is still in progress and is possibly resuming. Break of 110.10 will confirm this bearish case and target 50% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 108.81. On the upside, break of 112.19 resistance is needed to confirm near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay mildly bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Nonetheless, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.16) will extend the consolidation from 125.85 with another fall through 98.97 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.91; (P) 109.17; (R1) 109.34; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation form 109.68 is extending. With 108.70 minor support intact, further rise is in favor. On the upside, break of 109.68 will resume the rebound from 107.47 for retesting 110.95 high. On the downside, though, break of 108.70 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support again, to extend the pattern from 110.95.

In the bigger picture, rise from 102.58 might have completed at 110.95. But strong support from 55 day EMA retains near term bullishness for the pair. Break of 110.95 resistance will carry larger bullish implications and target 112.22 resistance next. Though, break of 107.47 support will shift favor to the case of long term sideway trading between 101.18/111.71.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.73; (P) 157.50; (R1) 158.23; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further rally would remain in favor as long as 154.53 support holds. Break of 158.25 will resume the choppy rise from 151.86 towards 160.20 high. But upside should be limited there, at least on first attempt.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 160.20 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 150.25 only. Another rally is still expected at a later stage through 160.02 to resume the larger up trend. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.57; (P) 154.71; (R1) 154.98; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside as up trend is extending. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, strong resistance should be seen from 155.20 fibonacci level to bring correction on first attempt. On the downside, break of 153.58 support will turn bias to the downside, for deeper pull back to 55 D EMA (now at 151.10).

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 146.47 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.18; (P) 108.35; (R1) 108.61; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. Intraday bias stays neutral with focus on 108.80 resistance. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, firm break of 108.80 will confirm short term bottoming at 106.78. In this case, stronger rise should be seen back to 110.67 resistance. On the other hand, rejection by 108.80, followed by break of 107.56 will retain near term bearishness. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 106.78 support instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.67; (P) 114.00; (R1) 114.31; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. With 112.95 support intact, near term outlook stays bullish and further rally is in favor. Sustained trading above 114.49 will pave the way to retest 118.65 high. However, break of 112.95 support will now indicate rejection from 114.49 and turn bias to the downside for 111.64 support and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completes. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.87; (P) 113.43; (R1) 113.82; More…

USD/JPY recovers mildly today but stays inside range of 112.51/115.61. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Choppy fall from 118.65 is seen as a corrective move. In case of another decline, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to complete the correction and bring rebound. On the upside, above 115.61 will target a test on 118.65 first. Break will resume whole rise from 98.97 and target 125.85 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.30; (P) 113.50; (R1) 113.82; More..

With 113.14 minor support intact, intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 114.03 resistance. Break there should resume rebound from 111.37 and target 114.54 key resistance next. On the downside, below 113.14 minor support will turn bias the downside for 112.23 and below. Overall, price actions 114.54 are seen as a consolidative pattern. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound. Larger rise from 104.62 is expected to resume later.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.07; (P) 109.41; (R1) 109.73; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 108.27 extends higher today. Break of 110.18 support turned resistance is taken as the first sign of near term reversal. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 111.47 resistance first. Sustained break there will also have 55 day EMA (now at 11.39) firmly taken out. In such case, further rise would be seen back to 113.38/114.73 resistance zone. On the downside, however, below 109.22 minor support will turn focus back to 108.27 instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. There is risk of dropping further to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. But this level should provide strong support to contain downside and bring resumption of rise from 98.97. However, sustained break of 106.48 will now likely send USD/JPY through 98.97 to resume the corrective fall from 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.83; (P) 157.12; (R1) 157.43; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as range trading continues. On the upside, break of 157.70 will resume the whole rise from 151.86 and target 160.20 high. Nevertheless, break of 154.53 will turn bias to the downside for 151.86 support and possibly below, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 160.20. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 147.77) holds, fall from 160.20 is seen as correcting the rise from 140.25 only. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.27; (P) 104.57; (R1) 104.87; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidations. Further fall is expected as long as 105.20 support turned resistance holds. Below 104.00 will resume larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 109.85 to 104.18 from 106.94 at 103.43 next. Nevertheless, firm break of 105.20 will bring stronger rebound to 106.94 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.95; (P) 159.43; (R1) 160.11; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Further rise will remain in favor as long as 157.70 resistance turned support holds. Sustained break of 106.20 and 100% projection of 151.86 to 157.70 from 154.53 at 160.37 will confirm long term up trend resumption, and pave the way to 161.8% projection at 163.97. Nevertheless, firm break of 157.70 will turn bias back to the downside for channel support (now at 156.26) first.

In the bigger picture, there is no sign of long term trend reversal yet. Further rally is expected as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds. Decisive break of 160.02 will target 100% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 164.94.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.94; (P) 108.11; (R1) 108.40; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 108.37 will extend the rebound from 106.78 with another rise, possibly through 108.99 resistance. On the downside, break of 107.21 will resume the fall from 108.99 to 106.78 low. Decisive break there will resume whole decline from 112.40.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.85; (P) 113.14; (R1) 113.57; More…

USD/JPY’s rally continues today and reaches as high as 114.29 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 114.36 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm our bullish view that corrective pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12. In that case, further rally would be seen to retest 118.65. On the downside, break of 112.88 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.56; (P) 107.80; (R1) 108.08; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point, with focus on 107.56 minor support. With 108.80 resistance intact, outlook remains bearish. On the downside, firm break of 107.56 minor support will bring retest of 106.78 low. Break there will extend recent fall from 112.40 to 104.69 low. Nevertheless, sustained break of 108.80 will confirm short term bottoming at 106.78. In this case, stronger rise should be seen back to 110.67 resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.25; (P) 112.42; (R1) 112.68; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in range of 112.02/113.74. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Also, near term outlook stays bullish as long as 112.02 support holds and further rise is expected. Break of 113.74 will resume the rebound from 110.83 and target 114.73 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, break of 112.02 will likely extend the corrective pattern from 114.73 with another leg through 110.83 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.