Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.23; (P) 112.45; (R1) 112.89; More..

USD/JPY’s break of 112.52 minor resistance argues that pull back from 114.54 has completed at 111.62 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for retesting 114.54 resistance. on the downside, below 112.01, however, will likely resume the corrective fall from 114.54 to 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75. We’ll look for bottoming signal above 109.76 key support in that case.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.09; (P) 146.53; (R1) 147.33; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside for 147.68 long term resistance. On the downside, break of 145.789 resistance turned support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again. But overall, outlook will remain bullish as long as 140.33 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high), and possibly to 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.91; (P) 108.59; (R1) 109.13; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside as the medium term decline from 118.65 has just resumed. Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. We’ll look for support from there again to bring rebound. On the upside, above 108.45 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will now stay bearish as long as 110.66 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, pull back from 118.65 is viewed as a corrective pattern for the moment and downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound. Rise from 98.97 is expected to extend later to retest 125.85 high. However, sustained break of 106.48 will dampen this view and bring deeper fall to retest 98.97 instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.45; (P) 109.66; (R1) 109.91; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point, as sideway trading continues. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound from 108.71 to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.43; (P) 113.57; (R1) 113.83; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Current rally from 104.62 should target 114.73 resistance next. Decisive break there will confirm larger bullish case. Next target will be 118.65 resistance. On the downside, below 113.31 minor support will turn bias neutral first and bring consolidations, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 198.80; (P)199.63; (R1) 200.50; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Firm break of 199.00 support will suggest short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Rise from 191.34, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 200.53, might have completed too. Deeper fall should then be seen to 197.07 resistance turned support next.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top could be in place at 200.53 after breaching 199.80 long term fibonacci level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 185.01) holds, price actions from there is seen as correcting the rise from 178.32 only. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger scale correction is underway and target 178.32 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.81; (P) 110.11; (R1) 110.35; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound from 108.71 to retest 111.65 high.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.36; (P) 112.62; (R1) 112.80; More…

A temporary top is in place at 112.86 with today’s retreat. Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first, for some consolidations. Near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 111.82 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, above 112.86 will target 113.17 resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 104.62 and target 114.73 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

USD/JPY’s fall from 151.93 resumed last week and hit as low as 133.61. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 133.07 medium term fibonacci level or further to 55 week EMA. On the upside, break of 137.66 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. However, near term risk will stay on the downside as long as 142.24 resistance holds, even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 131.33). Some support should be seen around this zone to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

In the long term picture, rise from 102.58, as part of the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) was put to a halt at 151.93, just ahead of 100% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 102.58 at 152.87. There is no clear sign of long term reversal yet. Such up trend is expected to resume at a later stage, as long as 125.85 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.79; (P) 148.99; (R1) 149.27; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside for the moment. Current rise from 127.20 should target a retest of 151.93 high. On the downside, below 148.45 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will now stay bullish as long as 145.88 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by break of 137.22 support will indicate that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.53; (P) 110.81; (R1) 111.26; More…

USD/JPY recovered ahead of 110.25 minor support but upside is held below 111.23 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 110.25 minor support will suggest rejection by 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77. And in that case, the rebound from 104.69 has likely completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 108.49 support for confirmation. Nevertheless, firm break of 111.23 should confirm resumption of rise from 104.69 for 114.54 resistance.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was stronger than expected, it’s struggle to get rid of 55 day EMA completely. Outlook is turned mixed first. On the downside, break of 108.49 support will revive that case that such rebound was a correction. And, larger down trend is still in progress for another low below 104.62. But sustained trading above 55 day EMA will turn focus to 114.54. Decisive break there will confirmation completion of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high).

USD/JPY staged a strong rebound after dipping to 102.58 last week. Break of 103.89 resistance suggests short term bottoming on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for channel resistance (now at 104.47). Sustained break there will argue that the down trend from 111.71 has finally completed. Stronger rise would be seen to 105.67 resistance for confirmation. Nevertheless, rejection by the channel resistance will maintain bearishness, for extending the down trend through 102.58 at a later stage.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 105.67 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.16; (P) 130.49; (R1) 130.87; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 131.24 will resume recent up trend to 261.8% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 133.26. Meanwhile, outlook will remain bullish as long as 126.91 support holds, in case of another pull back.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.21; (P) 148.66; (R1) 149.15; More…

Outlook in USD/JPY is unchanged. Intraday bias stays neutral as consolidation from 150.15 is still extending. On the downside, below 148.24 minor support will turn bias to the downside for another down leg through 147.28. But there is no confirmation of bearish trend reversal before firm break of 144.43 support. Another rally remains mildly in favor through 150.15 to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.61; (P) 114.18; (R1) 114.56; More…

USD/JPY dips mildly today on broad based rebound in Yen. The rejection from 114.94 resistance argues that the correction from 118.65 is possibly not completed yet. But still, in case of another fall, we’d still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, decisive break of 114.94 will indicate that it’s completed with a double bottom pattern (111.58, 111.68). In such case, intraday bias will be turned to the upside for retesting 118.65.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.74; (P) 111.21; (R1) 111.67; More...

USD/JPY’s fall from 111.71 extends lower today but it’s staying well above 106.75 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first and further rally is still mildly in favor. Decisive break of 112.22 key resistance will carry larger bullish implication and target 114.54 resistance next. On the downside, break of 106.75 support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 101.18 low instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.10; (P) 107.43; (R1) 107.67; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral again with today’s retreat. Further rise could be seen as long as 106.64 minor support intact. But 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 which is close to 108.12, remains crucial in determining the medium outlook. Break of 106.64, however, will indicate the rebound from 104.62 has completed. And in that case, bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 104.62.

In the bigger picture, as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds, the medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) should still continue lower, at least to retest 98.97 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 108.12 will be an early sign of medium term reversal. In that case, further rise would be seen to 114.73 resistance to confirm completion of the fall from 118.65.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.19; (P) 105.47; (R1) 105.69; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for some more consolidations first. Further rise is expected as long as 140.40 support holds. Rise from 102.58 is seen as at least correcting the down trend from 111.71 to 102.58, with prospect of being an up trend of its own. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 108.22.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.84) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.15).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.46; (P) 109.71; (R1) 110.10; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 109.02 is still unfolding. Further decline is expected as long as 110.04 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 109.02 will resume the fall from 112.40 to retest 104.69 low. Nevertheless, break of 110.04 minor resistance will indicate short term bottom. Lengthier consolidation could then be seen before another decline.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Currently development suggests that rebound from 104.69 is only a corrective move. And fall from 118.65 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 104.69 will extend the down trend towards 98.97 support (2016 low). For now, we’d expect strong support above there to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.73; (P) 104.98; (R1) 105.20; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. Some consolidations could be seen above 104.77 temporary low. But upside of recovery should be limited below 106.63 support turned resistance to bring another fall. on the downside, break of 104.77 will extend larger decline to 100% projection of 111.71 to 105.98 from 109.85 at 104.12 next.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.