Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.62; (P) 135.92; (R1) 136.29; More…

USD/JPY recovers but stays below 136.99 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, sustained break of 136.99 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29. On the downside, however, break of 134.25 will turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back to 131.34 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.74; (P) 115.11; (R1) 115.75; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside as rise from 113.46 is in progress for retesting 116.34 high. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend for 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, below 114.46 minor support will mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 110.91) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.89; (P) 107.13; (R1) 107.48; More...

USD/JPY is extending the retreat from 107.76 temporary top and intraday bias stays neutral first. Outlook is unchanged that corrective fall from 111.71 should have completed with three waves down to 105.98. Further rise is expected as long as 105.98 support holds. On the upside, break of 107.76 will turn bias back to the upside for 109.38 resistance first. However, break of 105.98 will dampen our bullish view and bring deeper decline.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.75; (P) 113.99; (R1) 114.25; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 114.69 is still extending. On the upside, firm break of 114.69 will resume the larger up trend to 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next. Break of 113.24 will bring deeper pull back, but downside should be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.29; (P) 109.03; (R1) 109.50; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in range of 108.27/110.47 and intraday bias remains neutral. As noted before, larger decline from 114.73 is possibly still in progress. Break of 108.27 will also resume the medium term correction from 118.65. That will send USD/JPY through 107.31 to 106.48 fibonacci level. Nonetheless, above 110.47 will turn intraday bias back to the upside and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. There is risk of dropping further to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. But this level should provide strong support to contain downside and bring resumption of rise from 98.97. However, sustained break of 106.48 will now likely send USD/JPY through 98.97 to resume the corrective fall from 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.04; (P) 109.37; (R1) 109.56; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as sideway trading continues. On the downside, break of 109.10 will argue that larger fall from 111.65 is resuming. Deeper decline should then be seen to 108.71 support first, and then 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next. On the upside, above 110.44 will turn bias back to the upside for 110.79, and then 111.65 high.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.92; (P) 110.18; (R1) 110.60; More…

USD/JPY’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside for 111.71/112.22 resistance. Firm break there will solidify medium term bullishness. On the downside, below 110.17 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 108.40 support holds, in case of pull back.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the corrective down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed at 101.18. Firm break of 112.22 resistance should confirms this bullish case. A medium term up trend could then has started for 100% projection of 101.18 to 111.71 from 102.58 at 113.11 and then 161.8% projection at 119.61. Rejection by 111.71, however, will keep medium term outlook neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.73; (P) 109.01; (R1) 109.18; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range of 108.34/109.77 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise is mildly in favor for now. Break of 109.77 will resume the rebound from 107.47 to retest 110.95 high. On the downside, break of 108.34 will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support and below instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. We’d monitor the structure of the fall from 110.95, to assess whether it’s just correction to rise from 102.58 to 110.95, or a leg of a range pattern between 101.18 and 111.71, or starting another leg of the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.77; (P) 157.07; (R1) 157.58; More….

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, decisive break of 156.36 minor support will confirm short term topping at 157.70, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 153.59 support. Firm break there will target 151.86 and below as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20. However, break of 157.70 will extend the rally from 151.86 towards 160.20.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.09; (P) 114.44; (R1) 114.67; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays mildly on the downside for the moment, for 113.47 support. Break there will resume the fall from 112.52 structural support. Considering bearish divergence condition in in daily MACD, further break of 112.52 will confirm that it’s already in correction to the up trend from 102.58. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 116.34 at 111.08. On the upside, break of 115.05 will resume the rebound from 113.47. But a break of 116.34 high is not expected even in this case.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. However, firm break of 112.52 support will dampen this bullish case and we’ll assess the outlook based on subsequent price actions later.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.13; (P) 151.35; (R1) 151.64; More…

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged at consolidation from 151.82 is still extending. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 150.25 support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03. However, firm break of 150.25 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.09; (P) 146.53; (R1) 147.33; More…

USD/JPY’s rally continues and is in proximity to 147.68 long term resistance. Break there will target 149.26 projection, and possibly to 150 psychological level. nevertheless, break of 145.89 support could be an indication that Japan has stepped in for intervention again, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high), and possibly to 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.95; (P) 106.18; (R1) 106.43; More…

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. As long as 106.73 resistance holds, further fall is expected. On the downside, break of 104.45 will resume recent down trend to 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. However, firm break of 106.73 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.23) and above.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 109.31 resistance is needed to the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.49; (P) 114.71; (R1) 115.10; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside as rise from 112.52 is in progress. Further rise would be seen to retest 115.51 high first. Firm break there will resume larger up trend to 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 114.30 will turn bias to the downside, and extend the corrective pattern from 115.51 with another falling leg back to 112.52 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.97; (P) 147.23; (R1) 147.57; More…

USD/JPY’s decline accelerates to as low as 144.53 so far and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Intraday bias remains on the downside. Sustained trading below 145.06 will carry larger bearish implication and target 142.45 fibonacci level next. On the upside, break of 146.22 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 (2023 low) is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Decisive break of 145.06 resistance turned support will confirm that this second leg has completed, after rejection by 151.93. Deeper fall would be seen through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. Nevertheless strong bounce from 145.06 will retain medium term bullishness for another test on 151.93 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.12; (P) 110.29; (R1) 110.43; More…

Range trading is still in progress in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound from 108.71 to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 117.60; (P) 117.91; (R1) 118.52; More…

A temporary top is formed at 118.44, ahead of 118.65 long term resistance. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations first. Downside of retreat should be contained above 116.34 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, firm break of 118.65 will target 100% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 121.63.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 125.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 113.46 support holds.

USD/JPY edged higher to 136.99 last week but failed to sustain above 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81 and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour and daily MACD, a correction could be imminent. On the downside, break of 134.25 support will confirm short term topping at 136.99. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 131.34 support resistance turned support. Nevertheless, firm break of 136.99 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

In the long term picture, the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) has just resumed. Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.53; (P) 144.10; (R1) 144.63; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Correction from 145.06 is in progress and break of 143.54 will turn bias to the downside for deeper fall. Still, overall outlook remains bullish with 140.90 resistance turned support intact. Break of 145.06 will resume larger rise to 161.8% projection of 127.20 to 137.90 from 129.62 at 146.93.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is currently seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Further rally is expected as long as 138.75 support holds, to retest 151.93. But strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside. Break of 138.75 will indicate the the third leg has started back towards 127.20.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.16; (P) 113.37; (R1) 113.67; More…

A temporary top is in place at 113.68 in USD/JPY and intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidation. Further rally is expected as long as 111.98 support holds. Above 113.68 will target 114.73 resistance first. Decisive break there will resume whole rise form 107.31. More importantly, that will confirm completion of medium term correction from 118.65 at 107.31. In that case, retest of 118.65 should be seen next. However, break of 111.98 support will extend the correction from 114.73 with another fall, possibly to 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 110.14 before completion.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed a 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this will and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.