Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.39; (P) 113.91; (R1) 114.20; More…

USD/JPY’s pull back from 114.44 is still in progress and could dip further lower. But still, outlook will stays cautiously bullish as long as 111.64 support holds. Decisive break of 114.49 key resistance will confirm that correction pattern from 118.65 has completed at 107.31 already. And USD/JPY should then target a test on 118.65. However, sustained break of 111.64 will argue that rebound from 107.31 has completed and bring retest of this low.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completes. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.01; (P) 109.42; (R1) 109.74; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation above 108.59 temporary and intraday bias remains neutral at this moment. Upside of recovery should be limited below 110.94 resistance and bring fall resumption. Break of 108.59 will target a test on 108.12 low. Whole corrective decline from 118.65 is possibly resuming and break of 108.12 will target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, firm break of 110.94 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.90; (P) 133.25; (R1) 133.86; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays mildly on the upside at this point. Rebound from 130.55 short term bottom would extend to 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 130.55 at 138.71 first. On the downside, however, break of 132.62 minor support will bring retest of 130.55 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 medium term could be just a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07 and 55 week EMA (now at 131.76) will set the range for such corrective pattern. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.55; (P) 108.81; (R1) 109.12; More…

With 109.14 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside for 107.77 support first. Break there will confirm completion of rebound from 104.69 at 110.00. Then, further decline would be seen back to retest 104.69 low. On the upside, above 109.14 will turn intraday bias neutral first. Break of 110.00 will extend the rebound. But we’d expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 is strong, there is no change in the view that it’s a corrective move. That is, fall from 114.54, as part of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high), is not completed yet. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 110.82) will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.54 resistance instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.10; (P) 108.78; (R1) 109.46; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. Deeper fall could be seen to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20. Break will likely resume larger decline from 118.65 for a new low below 104.62. On the upside, break of 109.82 is needed to confirm completion of the fall from 111.39. Otherwise, near term outlook will be mildly bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY remains bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). The development. Current deeper than expected fall from 111.39 argues that fall from 118.65 is not finished. Break of 104.62 low would target 98.97 or even below. Though, break of 111.39 will revive the case that fall from 118.65 has completed and turn focus to 114.73 for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.52; (P) 107.53; (R1) 108.11; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside at this point. As noted before, whole rise form 104.45 has completed after rejection by 112.40 resistance. Fall from 112.22 should target a test on 104.45 low. On the upside, above 108.57 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, current steep decline and rejection by 112.40 resistance mixes up the medium term outlook again. Sustained break of 108.30 support will argue that larger fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) hasn’t completed. Further fall could be seen through 104.45 low. Nevertheless, break of 112.40 resistance will revive the case of bullish reversal and target 114.54 key resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.42; (P) 113.89; (R1) 114.33; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 114.36 temporary top. Some more consolidations would be seen. In case of deeper retreat, downside should be contained by 112.08 support and bring another rally. Outlook remains unchanged that correction from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 108.12. Above 114.36 will target 115.49 resistance first. Break will resume larger rally from 98.97 to 125.85 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 115.49 resistance will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.37; (P) 112.63; (R1) 112.82; More…

USD/JPY lost some downside momentum with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. But with 113.53 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is still expected. We’re holding on to the view that consolidation pattern from 111.58 has completed with three waves up to 115.49. And decline from 118.65 is likely resuming. Further fall should be seen through 111.58 to 111.12/13 cluster support. This level represents 61.8% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 111.12 and 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. At this point, we’d tentatively expect strong support from 111.12/13 cluster support to contain downside. On the upside, above 113.53 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 115.49 resistance. However, sustained break of 111.12/13 will bring deeper decline to 100% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 108.42.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Nonetheless, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.19) will extend the consolidation from 125.85 with another fall through 98.97 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.51; (P) 150.79; (R1) 151.25; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 148.79 support holds. Firm break of 151.69 high will resume larger up trend. However, decisive break of 148.79 will indicate rejection by 151.93 key resistance, and bring deeper fall through 147.28 support.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is on 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will argue that rise from 127.20 has completed, and turn outlook bearish for 137.22 support and below. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.89; (P) 137.27; (R1) 137.84; More…

Further rise is expected in USD/JPY despite loss of upside momentum. Rise from 130.38 would target a test on 139.37 high. Strong resistance could be seen from 139.37 high to bring another fall from to extend the corrective pattern from there. On the downside below 134.61 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 131.72 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 139.37 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 123.21) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.63; (P) 154.76; (R1) 154.95; More…

Outlook in USD/JPY is unchanged and intraday bias remains mildly on the upside for further rally. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, strong resistance should be seen from 155.20 fibonacci level to bring correction on first attempt. On the downside, break of 153.58 support will turn bias to the downside, for deeper pull back to 55 D EMA (now at 151.11).

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 146.47 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.75; (P) 107.98; (R1) 108.31; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is neutral for some consolidations above 107.47. Further fall is expected with 108.53 minor resistance intact. Break of 107.47 will resume the decline from 110.95 to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77. On the upside, though, break of 108.53 will indicate short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be back to the upside for 108.99/109.95 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 102.58 might have completed at 110.95, as the third leg of the pattern from 101.18 low. Medium term outlook is neutral first, as the pair could have turned into sideway trading between 101.18/111.71. We’d look at the structure and momentum of the fall from 110.95 to gauge the chance of upside breakout at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.80; (P) 109.00; (R1) 109.17; More…

USD/JPY recovers after drawing support from 4 hour 55 EMA, but stays below 109.28/31 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, decisive break of 109.28/31 resistance will firstly resume rise from 104.45 low. It will also be an early sign of medium term reversal. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 112.40 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 107.88 will turn bias to the downside for 106.48 support next.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.51; (P) 108.70; (R1) 108.99; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. With 107.93 minor support intact, further rise is expected. On the upside, break of 108.99 will resume the rebound from 106.78 for 100% projection of 106.78 to 108.99 from 107.21 at 109.42 and then 161.8% projection at 110.78. On the downside, below 107.93 minor support will turn bias back to the downside instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) not completed yet, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.56; (P) 143.01; (R1) 143.79; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY  neutral with current retreat. On the upside, above 143.88 will target a retest on 145.60 resistance first. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 172.20. Next target is 61.8% projection of 129.62 to 145.06 from 137.22 at 146.76. However, sustained trading below 55 4H EMA (now at 141.77) will turn bias back to the downside for 137.22/138.05 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.21; (P) 136.72; (R1) 137.20; More…

Breach of 135.95 minor support suggests rejection by 4 hour 55 EMA. Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the downside for retesting 133.61 low. Firm break there will resume the decline from 151.93. On the upside, above 137.84 resistance will revive the case of short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 141.02).

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 131.33). Some support should be seen around this zone to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

USD/JPY recovered further to 114.26 last week but dropped notably from there. Yet, there was no follow through selling. Initial bias is turned neutral first this week. On the downside, break of 112.52 will resume the fall from 115.51, as a correction to up trend from 102.57, and target 100% projection of 115.51 to 112.52 from 114.26 at 111.27. On the upside, above 114.26 will target a test on 115.51 high instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

USD/JPY rose to as high as 114.54 last week but lost momentum ahead of 114.73 key resistance. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, a short term top is possibly formed. Initial bias this week is neutral first. Break of 113.51 will bring deeper pull back to 38.2% retracement of 110.37 to 114.54 at 112.94. We’d expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, decisive break of 114.73 will confirm larger bullish case. Next target will be 118.65 resistance.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.48; (P) 105.63; (R1) 105.80; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point, for 106.94 resistance. Current development argues revives the case that down trend from 111.71 has completed on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. On the upside, break of 106.94 resistance will confirm and turn outlook bullish. On downside, break of 104.94 support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise will remain mildly in favor in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.07; (P) 109.41; (R1) 109.70; More…

Focus remains on 109.10 support in USD/JPY. Firm break there will argue that larger fall from 111.65 is resuming. Deeper decline should then be seen to 108.71 support first, and then 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next. On the upside, break of 110.44 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 110.79 instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.