Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.18; (P) 109.48; (R1) 109.95; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 108.72 extends to as high as 110.78 so far. The break of 110.61 support turned resistance argues that decline form 114.49 is already completed at 108.72. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 112.18 resistance first. Break there will target 114.49 key near term resistance again. On the downside, break of 108.79 minor support will turn focus back to 108.72 instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.68; (P) 111.23; (R1) 111.60; More….

At this point, further rise is expected in USD/JPY with 109.58 minor support intact. Sustained trading above 111.58 support turned resistance will indicate that fall from 118.65 is merely a corrective move and has completed. Outlook will then be turned bullish for 115.49 resistance and above. However, break of 109.58 will argue that fall from 118.65 is still in progress and will turn bias to the downside for 108.12 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that it’s not completed yet and is extending. In case of deeper decline, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.73; (P) 113.02; (R1) 113.32; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Outlook remains cautiously bullish as long as 112.02 holds and further rise is in favor. Break of 113.74 will resume the rebound from 110.83 and target 114.73 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, break of 112.02 will likely extend the corrective pattern from 114.73 with another leg through 110.83 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.90; (P) 113.40; (R1) 114.28; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Choppy fall from 118.65 is seen as a corrective move. In case of another decline, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to complete the correction and bring rebound. On the upside, above 115.61 will target a test on 118.65 first. Break will resume whole rise from 98.97 and target 125.85 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.28; (P) 108.50; (R1) 108.67; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and consolidation from 107.81 temporary low might extend further. Upside of recovery should be limited by 109.02 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63 will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support zone. Though, break of 109.02 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying indicate long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.78; (P) 112.18; (R1) 112.77; More…

With 113.44 minor resistance intact, deeper fall could still be seen in USD/JPY. But again, choppy decline from 118.65 is seen as a correction. Hence, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 113.44 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. Break of 115.36 resistance will argue that such correction is finished and turn bias to the upside for 118.65 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.43; (P) 108.68; (R1) 108.82; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. With 108.27 support intact, further rally is still expected. On the upside, above 109.20 minor resistance will bring retest of 109.72 first. However, firm break of 108.27 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 106.48 support.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.51; (P) 109.88; (R1) 110.53; More…

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged. While the rebound from 107.31 is strong, it’s limited below 110.66 resistance so far. Outlook stays bearish and another fall is still expected. Break of 107.31 will extend the whole fall from 118.65 to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 first. We’d look for support from there to bring rebound. But firm break of 106.48 will extend the decline to 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.49 at 103.96 or below. On the upside, firm break of 110.66 will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is now seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.51; (P) 108.62; (R1) 108.76; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point and more sideway trading could be seen. On the upside, break of 109.48 resistance will resume whole rise from 104.45 and target trend line resistance (now at 111.79). On the downside, break of 108.24 support will revive the case of short term reversal. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 107.88 support to confirm.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.65; (P) 109.02; (R1) 109.60; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment and more consolidations could be seen. But still, in any case, outlook will remain cautiously bearish as long as 110.94 resistance holds. On the downside, decisive break of 108.12 will resume the whole corrective decline from 118.65. Next target will be 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.66; (P) 150.11; (R1) 150.51; More…

USD/JPY falls notably today but stays above 149.20 supports so far. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 150.87 will resume the rise from 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. On the other hand, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 149.20 will confirm short term topping at 150.87. Deeper fall would be seen to channel support (now at 148.65) and possibly below, even as a corrective move.

In the bigger picture, rise from 140.25 is seen as resuming the trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Decisive break of 151.89/.93 resistance zone will confirm this bullish case and target 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.50. However, break of 148.79 resistance turned support will delay this bullish case, and extend the corrective pattern from 151.89 with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.19; (P) 105.47; (R1) 105.69; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for some more consolidations first. Further rise is expected as long as 140.40 support holds. Rise from 102.58 is seen as at least correcting the down trend from 111.71 to 102.58, with prospect of being an up trend of its own. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 108.22.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.84) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.15).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.91; (P) 108.59; (R1) 109.13; More…

Firm break of 108.12 support confirms resumption of whole medium term decline from 118.65. Intraday bias back on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. We’ll look for support from there again to bring rebound. On the upside, above 108.45 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will now stay bearish as long as 110.66 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, pull back from 118.65 is viewed as a corrective pattern for the moment and downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound. Rise from 98.97 is expected to extend later to retest 125.85 high. However, sustained break of 106.48 will dampen this view and bring deeper fall to retest 98.97 instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.23; (P) 112.52; (R1) 112.95; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 113.04 temporary top continues. We’d holding on to the view that corrective fall from 118.65 could be completed with three waves down to 108.12. Further rise is expected as long as 110.86 support holds. Above 113.04 will target 115.49 resistance. Firm break there will resume larger rally from 98.97 to 125.85 high. However, break of 110.86 support will keep USD/JPY inside near term falling channel and will turn bias back to the downside for 108.12 and below to extend the decline from 118.65.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 115.49 resistance will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

USD/JPY’s fall last week confirmed topping at 118.65. Price actions from there is expected to develop into a corrective pattern. Deeper fall is expected as long as 116.86 resistance holds to 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. At this point, we’d expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 116.86 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 118.65 high. However, sustained break of 111.13 will argue that whole rise from 98.97 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 106.48 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 medium term top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.36; (P) 110.84; (R1) 111.14; More…

USD/JPY recovers mildly today but stays well below 112.18 resistance. Intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment. Current decline from 114.49 should extend to 108.81 support first. Break there will resume whole correction from 118.65 and target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 112.18 resistance will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.49 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.99; (P) 112.59; (R1) 112.94; More…

Outlook is unchanged in USD/JPY even though it continues to lose upside momentum. But still, with 111.46 minor support intact, further rise is expected. Sustained break of medium term channel resistance will argue that correction from 118.65 is already completed with three waves down to 107.31. Break of 114.49 will confirm this bullish case and target a test on 118.65 next. On the downside, however, break of 111.46 will suggest rejection from the channel resistance and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.65; (P) 108.82; (R1) 108.95; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in sideway trading inside range of 108.34/109.77, and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, above 109.77 will resume the rebound from 107.47 to retest 110.95 high. On the downside, break of 108.34 will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. We’d monitor the structure of the fall from 110.95, to assess whether it’s just correction to rise from 102.58 to 110.95, or a leg of a range pattern between 101.18 and 111.71, or starting another leg of the long term down trend.

USD/JPY edged lower to 110.10 last week then recovered. Such recovery was relatively weak and was held well below 55 day EMA before losing momentum and retreated. Overall, price actions from 118.65 are seen as a corrective pattern. But there is no confirmation that such correction is finished yet.

Initial bias in USD/JPY is neutral this week first. On the upside, above 112.19 will turn bias back to the upside. Sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 112.86) will raise the chance of near term reversal and target 115.49 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, though, below 110.99 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 110.10 and break will extend the corrective fall from 118.65.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Nonetheless, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.08) will extend the consolidation from 125.85 with another fall through 98.97 before completion.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 medium term top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.98; (P) 112.78; (R1) 113.30; More…

Intraday bias in USD//JPY remains on the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 112.03). The rejection from 114.36 resistance suggests that whole correction from 118.65 is possibly still in progress. Sustained break of 55 day EMA will pave the way to 108.12 and below. On the upside, above 113.57 minor resistance will turn focus back to 114.49 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.