Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.12; (P) 105.51; (R1) 105.71; More…

Further rise is expected in USD/JPY as the rebound from 104.62 short term bottom should extend. USD/JPY should target 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. Hence, we’ll look at the reaction from 108.48 (which is close to 108.12 too) to assess the chance. On the downside, below 105.31 minor support will indicate that the rebound is completed and turn bias back to the downside instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.12; (P) 105.51; (R1) 105.71; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 104.62 extended to as high as 107.00 so far. The break of 106.63 resistance indicates short term bottoming on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. Hence, we’ll look at the reaction from 108.48 (which is close to 108.12 too) to assess the chance. On the downside, below 105.31 minor support will indicate that the rebound is completed and turn bias back to the downside instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.12; (P) 105.51; (R1) 105.71; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 104.62 extends to as high as 106.33 so far today. But still, it’s staying well below 106.63 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral with near term outlook staying bearish. On the downside, break of 104.62 will resume larger fall fro 104.20 projection level first. Sustained break there will pave the way to 98.97 (2016 low). Nonetheless, break of 106.63 will indicate short term bottom and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.12; (P) 105.51; (R1) 105.71; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 104.62 extends. With 106.63 resistance intact, near term outlook stays bearish and further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 104.62 will resume larger fall fro 104.20 projection level first. Sustained break there will pave the way to 98.97 (2016 low). Nonetheless, break of 106.63 will indicate short term bottom and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.84; (P) 105.15; (R1) 105.71; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. While recovery from 104.62 continues, it’s limited well below 106.63 resistance so far. Intraday bias remains neutral with outlook bearish. Another decline is expected and break of 104.62 will resume larger fall fro 104.20 projection level first. Sustained break there will pave the way to 98.97 (2016 low). Nonetheless, break of 106.63 will indicate short term bottom and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.84; (P) 105.15; (R1) 105.71; More…

USD/JPY’s recovery from 104.62 extends higher today. But it’s limited well below 106.63 resistance so far. Intraday bias remains neutral with outlook bearish. Another decline is expected and break of 104.62 will resume larger fall fro 104.20 projection level first. Sustained break there will pave the way to 98.97 (2016 low). Nonetheless, break of 106.63 will indicate short term bottom and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.45; (P) 104.89; (R1) 105.16; More…

A temporary low is in place at 104.62 with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. But recovery should be limited below 106.63 resistance to bring fall resumption. Below 104.62 will target 104.20 projection level first. Sustained break there will pave the way to 98.97 (2016 low).

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.45; (P) 104.89; (R1) 105.16; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for 104.20 projection level first. Sustained break there will pave the way to 98.97 (2016 low). On the upside, break of 106.63 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

USD/JPY dropped to as low as 104.63 last week and the break of 105.24 support confirms resumption of decline from 114.73. Such decline is viewed as the third leg of the medium term pattern from 118.65. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 104.20 projection level first. Sustained break there will pave the way to 98.97 (2016 low). On the upside, break of 106.63 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.99; (P) 105.53; (R1) 105.82; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside despite today’s recovery. Prior break of 105.24 support confirms resumption of decline from 114.73. Such fall is part of the whole pattern from 118.65. Intraday bias now stays on the downside for 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to 98.97 (2016 low). On the upside, break of 106.63 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 2016 high is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.99; (P) 105.53; (R1) 105.82; More…

USD/JPY dives to as low as 104.63 so far as decline accelerates. Firm break of 105.24 support confirms resumption of decline from 114.73. Such fall is part of the whole pattern from 118.65. Intraday bias now stays on the downside for 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to 98.97 (2016 low). On the upside, break of 106.63 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 2016 high is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.73; (P) 106.18; (R1) 106.49; More…

USD/JPY drops to as low as 105.25 so far and is set to test 105.24 low. As noted before, near term outlook is bullish with 107.67 resistance intact. Firm break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. On the upside, break of 107.67, however, will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for stronger rebound to 110.47.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.73; (P) 106.18; (R1) 106.49; More…

USD/JPY continues to gyrate in range of 105.24/107.67 and outlook is unchanged. Intraday bias remains neutral. With 107.67 resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish and further decline is expected. The corrective price actions since 105.24 support this. On the downside, break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. On the upside, firm break of 107.67 resistance will indicate near term reversal, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.10; (P) 106.35; (R1) 106.78; More…

At this point, USD/JPY is still staying in sideway trading in range of 105.24/107.67. Intraday bias remains neutral. With 107.67 resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish and further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. On the upside, firm break of 107.67 resistance will indicate near term reversal, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.10; (P) 106.35; (R1) 106.78; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 105.24 is still in progress. With 107.67 resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish and further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. On the upside, firm break of 107.67 resistance will indicate near term reversal, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.74; (P) 106.02; (R1) 106.37; More…

Consolidation from 105.24 is still extending between 105.24 and 107.67. Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral. Near term outlook stays mildly bearish with 107.67 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. On the upside, firm break of 107.67 resistance will indicate near term reversal, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.74; (P) 106.02; (R1) 106.37; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues inside 105.24/107.67. With 107.67 resistance holds, near term outlook remains bearish and deeper fall is expected. On the downside, break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. On the upside, firm break of 107.67 resistance will indicate near term reversal, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.58; (P) 105.97; (R1) 106.34; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. Range trading continues inside 105.24/107.67 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 107.67 resistance holds, near term outlook remains bearish and deeper fall is expected. On the downside, break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. On the upside, firm break of 107.67 resistance will indicate near term reversal, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.58; (P) 105.97; (R1) 106.34; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range of 105.24/107.67 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 107.67 resistance holds, near term outlook remains bearish and deeper fall is expected. On the downside, break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. On the upside, firm break of 107.67 resistance will indicate near term reversal, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

USD/JPY stayed in consolidation above 105.24 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. With 107.67 resistance holds, near term outlook remains bearish and deeper fall is expected. On the downside, break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. On the upside, firm break of 107.67 resistance will indicate near term reversal, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.